My neighbor just listed their home for $170K (Phoenix, Chandler: for sale by owner, foreclosure)

[markas214]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Barring something catastrophic happening to the economy---------I suspect we are near the bottom of the housing market crash. Maybe another 10% drop in real value (not counting inflation) and that will be it.

10%? Maybe in some areas but there are others that are still way over valued considering historical averages. Scottsdale is one that comes immediately to mind. There are still many Alt A ARMs and option ARMs that will just begin resetting soon which could really increase foreclosures even beyond what is happening now. I hate to be a doom and gloomer but there are a lot of scary things happening in the financial markets being downplayed by the media and the Feds as not to start a panic. Personally I believe we'll eventually resolve all these issues but there are quite a few we haven't even heard about yet.

I'm still in Pa., Bethlehem, and have plenty of equity for when I eventually sell but renting seems to be the prudent thing to do when we make our move west. I'm probably over informed regarding the Arizona market but I read everything I can from newspapers to blogs to make sure I'm making a correct decision when I buy in the Phoenix area.

[Finger Laker]

many arms are actually resetting at lower rates on this adjustment cycle

also remember that newspapers are here in part to push gloom - i blame them party for this mess as well

[markas214]

Originally Posted by Finger Laker

many arms are actually resetting at lower rates on this adjustment cycle

also remember that newspapers are here in part to push gloom - i blame them party for this mess as well

The media missed the big story 3 years ago when it failed to sound the alarm regarding the huge bubble being unsustainable. There were voices that sounded the alarm but were mostly ignored.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by markas214

10%? Maybe in some areas but there are others that are still way over valued considering historical averages. Scottsdale is one that comes immediately to mind. There are still many Alt A ARMs and option ARMs that will just begin resetting soon which could really increase foreclosures even beyond what is happening now. I hate to be a doom and gloomer but there are a lot of scary things happening in the financial markets being downplayed by the media and the Feds as not to start a panic. Personally I believe we'll eventually resolve all these issues but there are quite a few we haven't even heard about yet.

I'm still in Pa., Bethlehem, and have plenty of equity for when I eventually sell but renting seems to be the prudent thing to do when we make our move west. I'm probably over informed regarding the Arizona market but I read everything I can from newspapers to blogs to make sure I'm making a correct decision when I buy in the Phoenix area.

Metropolitan Phoenix's growing mortgage problem spreading

The above article stated the Phx area housing market has already dropped about 30% in value from its peak in 2005-06. How much of that decline is in 'dollars and cents' and if inflation is involved as well I am not sure.

[dc1225]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

You are wise to wait a couple of years to sell your house. This is not the first time there has been a real-estate bust in the nation or Phoenix. The market will rebound, not to 2005 levels within 2 years, but homes will start to increase in value once the "dead" weight of investor foreclosures and ARM loan foreclosures are absorbed by the market.

Franky, I think it'll take more than 2 years...I think it'll be rock bottom in 2 years and personally, I don't think it'll ever rebound back to 2005 prices, my 2 cents.

[dc1225]

Originally Posted by azcater

Sassie, I can understand where you are coming from... get this.. our neighbor just listed their house for... wait for it... $545k. I almost choked when I saw the flyer. They are doing FSBO but have a realtor in the family that is helping them. I was thinking.. "are you insane, there is no way your house is going to sell for anything close to that" I'm irritated because it means the house will be on the market forever with drivebys all the time and then more then likely because they won't reduce the price, it will turn into a rental.

Azcater, this seems to be the norm in Phoenix! I still see incredibly over inflated houses for sale on the market! I am not sure what they're smokiing but more than likely the realtor convincing them that he/she can sell it at that price...then comeback to tell them oh, the best offer i got was $350K, did you still want to sell it? That's how it works.

[Beena]

Let's hope this isn't the case for the bottom price. My wife and I have been investing aggressively in rental homes in North Scottsdale, where you can pick up foreclosed/short sales for $165-180,000 right now. In any case, I suppose we're not seeing negative cash flow, but the rental rates need to stay reasonable, as do future valuation expectations.

Wow. Ditto what Altus said. I live in North Scottsdale and owned 5 properties there that I sold in 06 and 07. How on earth are you picking up single family homes anywhere near 185k??? The bank has to be smarter than that and put them on the MLS where they can get twice that. (at least for the moment).

Or are we talking Thomas, Indian School, Granite Reef....that is SOUTH Scottsdale.

[littleredbird]

We're feeling the pain too. 2 days after we moved into our home, the same model behind us went up for sale for $125,000 less than what we paid. 2 weeks later the same model as our down the street was listed for $150,000 less that what we paid. I feel like we just lost $150,000 2 weeks after escrow closed. Never in my life had I seen real estate drop so fast. We had just sold our home at the same time (dual escrows) in CA above asking price and within 3 days of listing it. The market's crazy!

[amatrine]

I paid 99k, in February. A forclosure just sold two houses down, for 64k. Ugg....
I looked on trulia, and there are homes that were for sale that were 100k and are now 69k. Talk about a hit in a few months.

[twiggy]

Originally Posted by Finger Laker

many arms are actually resetting at lower rates on this adjustment cycle

also remember that newspapers are here in part to push gloom - i blame them party for this mess as well

I have been a silent reader on this thread because I didn't want the ARM I had to take over the discussion as it has before but this I couldn't help posting on. My ARM is going to reset again here pretty soon and I have been wondering if this will be the one that pushes us over the edge.
I am now wondering if your right and it will go down. That would help us out a lot. Give us some more time to save and hang on a little longer.
How did you hear this info? Is there somewhere I can go to find out if ours will be lower? Thanks

We can't refi because our home just went under what we owe this month. We have a foreclosure on our street that took it down about 50,000 in one month because the bank keeps lowering the price and it's getting destroyed and the pool is a green sluggy mess. It use to be one of the nicest places on the block. So sad.
I don't know why but our prices in Chandler seem to be back to what people bought for back in 2000. That's really low for the area. Seems there is more than meets the eye to me.