Last 100+ degree day PREDICTIONS! (Phoenix: home, move, winters)

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by Husker Fan

We are finally moving down the end of the month and I HOPE there are still 100 degree days. Since Labor Day it has been chilly (60's and 70's for highs), overcast and drizzly most days. Lows in the 40's already. And it's ONLY early September. GET ME OUTTA HERE!!!

Come on down Husker Fan, we might not be in the 100's by the time you get here, but we WILL have 90 degree temps with the lows in the 70's for sure!

[Husker Fan]

I can't wait. I really need to thaw out!!

[NytoPhx]

I actually think its nice now, but I supposed I'm in the minority. If only it was like this July and August. I wonder at what temperature I will begin to feel cool. Anything under 80 might feel chilly to me now.

[HX_Guy]

70s in Phoenix, when it's not humid, does feel pretty chilly.
It's a bit weird in Phoenix, it almost feels like we go from hot to "cold" without much in between.

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

70s in Phoenix, when it's not humid, does feel pretty chilly.
It's a bit weird in Phoenix, it almost feels like we go from hot to "cold" without much in between.

Really? I've always seen it as more of a progression. 100's in August, 90's in late Septmeber, 80's in October, then 70's in November and finally 60 & 50's in December, January, and February.

[borborygmi]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

70s in Phoenix, when it's not humid, does feel pretty chilly.
It's a bit weird in Phoenix, it almost feels like we go from hot to "cold" without much in between.

In my experience, there are basically a total of about 4 months a year in Phoenix of weather I'd call perfect- my definition would be mid-70's to mid-80's for highs, 50's-60's for lows, usually sunny and very little rain. The "perfect" times of year are from March-April and then again from mid-October through November. And otherwise, it's either excruciatingly, uncomfortably hot during the summer months (for a REALLY long time), or kinda cool, even chilly in the winter months with 50-60 degree highs, 30-40 degree lows, and sometimes rainy and cloudy. It isn't SoCal by any means, and if you move to Phoenix you shouldn't expect that.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Just wanted to know...??? Why do a few people say that 100 degree days last into late October? Was there one year a long time ago when this occurred?

According to the last 30 year averages (1971 through 2000), the average last date of temperatures 100 degrees or more is October 2nd. Before then, it was late September ... but this just proves that Phoenix is becoming even hotter, and staying hotter later.

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

I found this information on wunderground.com, weather.com, and abc15.com:
Last year, our last 100 degree day was 9/21 but the last "steady" day of 100s was Sept. 13 if I remember correctly. There were no 100 degrees days last Oct, here is a 10 year breakdown for 100 degree days in October:
2007 - 0;
2006 - 4 (first week in Oct).
2005 - 3 (first week)
2004 - 0
2003 - 6 (first week)
2002 - 0
2001 - 0
2000 - 0
1999 - 1 (first day)
1998 - 0
1997 - 0

This isn't very accurate. Those sources obviously aren't using NWS (NOAA) data, which is the official source for weather & climate statistics. For instance, October of 2003 had nine days (not six) of 100 degree temperatures, and most of them were in the middle to latter part of the month. In fact, if you check the records, the latest date ever of 100 degrees or more was October 23, 2003.

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

I also couldn't find one day in Nov. that had a 100 degree day? Is it a bit of exaggeration and overzealousness? The last day of 100 degrees last year was Sept. 21, the year before was Sept. 25. Those years it which the temperature DID hit 100 in October all occurred in the first week of October and are very abnormal and extremely unusual occurrences. So what gives?

Here's a more accurate source for checking the weather records:
National Weather Service - NWS Phoenix

The "preliminary climatological data" records go back to 2003. You're correct that most 100 degree temperatures in October occur during the first part of the month ... but based on the average last date of 100 degree heat being October 2nd, it's not at all unusual or abnormal for 100s in early October. I'm sure most of us PREFER that the 100s would end in September, but that's not always the case.

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

According to the last 30 year averages (1971 through 2000), the average last date of temperatures 100 degrees or more is October 2nd. Before then, it was late September ... but this just proves that Phoenix is becoming even hotter, and staying hotter later.

Why is the data so old on the NOAA and NWS sites? Well, if you want to use recent history as a barometer, the last 10 years have produced an average end date of 100 degree temps Sept. 25 by the Official temperatures recorded at Sky Harbor International Airport. Heat "waves" or patterns fluctuate over time; from year to year, decade to decade, etc. So to say Phoenix is getting hotter is a stretch (the NIGHT time temps in the heat island are hotter, however).


[/quote]This isn't very accurate. Those sources obviously aren't using NWS (NOAA) data, which is the official source for weather & climate statistics. For instance, October of 2003 had nine days (not six) of 100 degree temperatures, and most of them were in the middle to latter part of the month. In fact, if you check the records, the latest date ever of 100 degrees or more was October 23, 2003.[/quote]

Actually, the temps. I listed are from the NOAA/NWS and ARE the official temperatures recorded at Sky Harbor International Airport; these are the temperatures "written" in the history books of the meteorological record. Yes, one of the 6 days in 2003 over 100 was the 23rd of October; however, I did not note that in the side note. However, that was the latest 100 degree day EVER recorded and a VERY unusual occurrence; kind of like a hurricane hitting Martha's Vineyard (it has happened, but once every hundred years).

[/quote]Here's a more accurate source for checking the weather records:
National Weather Service - NWS Phoenix

The "preliminary climatological data" records go back to 2003. You're correct that most 100 degree temperatures in October occur during the first part of the month ... but based on the average last date of 100 degree heat being October 2nd, it's not at all unusual or abnormal for 100s in early October. I'm sure most of us PREFER that the 100s would end in September, but that's not always the case.[/quote]

And, I'm not sure how you are really claiming this last part to be true since only a few years out of the last ten have seen 100 degree days in October. However, basing averages on more numbers is more accurate than having a small sampling of data...this is true for almost ANY statistical information...including weather though it is very "temperamental."

[fcorrales80]

Any who, I think MaxPower might be right, maybe we won't be having any more 100 degree days. Besides old averages and 100 degree days in the past, bottom-line, this year seems rather unlikely that we will see 100 degree days in late September or early October, and we CERTAINLY will NOT see 100 degrees late into October, end of story, LOL!

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Any who, I think MaxPower might be right, maybe we won't be having any more 100 degree days. Besides old averages and 100 degree days in the past, bottom-line, this year seems rather unlikely that we will see 100 degree days in late September or early October, and we CERTAINLY will NOT see 100 degrees late into October, end of story, LOL!

The forecast is for back in the low 100s as soon as Saturday.