Last 100+ degree day PREDICTIONS! (Phoenix, Tempe: vacation, job, home)

[NytoPhx]

Originally Posted by borborygmi

In my experience, there are basically a total of about 4 months a year in Phoenix of weather I'd call perfect- my definition would be mid-70's to mid-80's for highs, 50's-60's for lows, usually sunny and very little rain. The "perfect" times of year are from March-April and then again from mid-October through November. And otherwise, it's either excruciatingly, uncomfortably hot during the summer months (for a REALLY long time), or kinda cool, even chilly in the winter months with 50-60 degree highs, 30-40 degree lows, and sometimes rainy and cloudy. It isn't SoCal by any means, and if you move to Phoenix you shouldn't expect that.

Aren't the winters here very similar to LA and San Diego. The average high in LA January is 68 and in Phoenix its 66. The winter is the rainy season in both cities, although LA can get a lot more rain in the winter. Nights might be a tad cooler here. How are the winters not close to So Cal's?

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by NytoPhx

Aren't the winters here very similar to LA and San Diego. The average high in LA January is 68 and in Phoenix its 66. The winter is the rainy season in both cities, although LA can get a lot more rain in the winter. Nights might be a tad cooler here. How are the winters not close to So Cal's?

I think the biggest difference is night time temperatures. Having lived in LA, I know that under 50 degrees at night is VERY cold...in Phoenix, one should expect some freezing temperatures (the further from downtown, the colder an area can be), and many "frost warning" night/mornings that are not common at all in LA, and normal lows in the 40's. However, high temperatures are very similar.

[twiggy]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Any who, I think MaxPower might be right, maybe we won't be having any more 100 degree days. Besides old averages and 100 degree days in the past, bottom-line, this year seems rather unlikely that we will see 100 degree days in late September or early October, and we CERTAINLY will NOT see 100 degrees late into October, end of story, LOL!

Hope your right! It always seems this way though. Especially to us old timers who have been here for 30 years. That last week in Oct. is usually when I know for sure it won't go back up for a min. Even by your set of facts in the last 5 years 3 of them have had 100 degree days. So, it's more likely that one might assume it to happen again. Also, if it's 98, 99, it's still so close to 100 that it could be 100 in one city and not in another. It's still basically 100 degree weather. Still, 100 is a lot better than 105 or 110 and the mornings are to die for right now! It's all good.

But hey, at least it's not a hurricane! I feel so sorry for those people, that is really something to complain about. We are small potatos compared to them! Just a shout out for those poor people. Hope everything ends up ok for them. It doesn't look good right now.
It will cool down here sometime. I would't trade it for evacuations and major home repairs.

I do believe this was just a prediction thread. Just for fun to guess what day it will be, not to prove it won't be. If you feel the need to call me overzealous then you have the freedom, but it's only weather, one degree here one degree there, I mean who really cares? It's just for fun.
Oct. was just my guess. It doesn't mean I will win the "Award", although I want it sssssssssssooooooooooooooooooo bad!!!! You should be happy if you think I am wrong, maybe you will win! Aren't you excited!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by twiggy

Hope your right! It always seems this way though. Even by your set of facts in the last 5 years 3 of them have had 100 degree days. So, it's more likely that one might assume it to happen again. Also, if it's 98, 99, it's still so close to 100 that it could be 100 in one city and not in another. It's still basically 100 degree weather. Still, 100 is a lot better than 105 or 110 and the mornings are to die for right now! It's all good.

But hey, at least it's not a hurricane! I feel so sorry for those people, that is really something to complain about. We are small potatos compared to them!
It will cool down here sometime. I would't trade it for evacuations and major home repairs.

I do believe this was just a prediction thread. Just for fun to guess what day it will be, not to prove it won't be.
Oct. was just my guess. It doesn't mean I will win the "Award", although I want it sssssssssssooooooooooooooooooo bad!!!! You should be happy if you think I am wrong, maybe you will win! Aren't you excited!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well, it's supposed to be over 100 again by this weekend so you are still in the running. HOWEVER, lows are going to drop to the 60s in the outlying areas and low 70s in town and that is going to be just lovely for those of us who get up before noon. I think the high temp at this time of year is not so important. It is very "peaky" and the vast majority of the day and the evening is cooler and quite pleasant.

[twiggy]

Yes, I do agree with you Pondersoa. Most of the weather is wonderful this time of year. I get up early enough to enjoy my coffee on the porch. I like a little afternoon warmth and cool mornings. I really love the light this time of year, you can tell fall is coming. My favorite time of year I think.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by twiggy

Yes, I do agree with you Pondersoa. Most of the weather is wonderful this time of year. I get up early enough to enjoy my coffee on the porch. I like a little afternoon warmth and cool mornings. I really love the light this time of year, you can tell fall is coming. My favorite time of year I think.

Me too on the light! The shadows and contrasts are fascinating and so very different from summer. I think people who can't see fall happening in this area aren't looking or just aren't "tuned in".

[HX_Guy]

Originally Posted by twiggy

Also, if it's 98, 99, it's still so close to 100 that it could be 100 in one city and not in another. It's still basically 100 degree weather. Still, 100 is a lot better than 105 or 110 and the mornings are to die for right now!

You said it pretty well right there!

Just looking at 100 degree temps is one thing...but really 97, 98, and 99 aren't that much different, it's basically the same as 100 degrees.

So if you look at days over 95 degrees in October 2007, you'll find there were 11 days out of 31...and it was even 97 degrees on October 28th.
That is why in my mind I always think that October is one of the "hot" months as well. Maybe this year will be a little better.

One good thing though is that the nights do cool down in October, with most of the nights in the 60s, which is great.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Why is the data so old on the NOAA and NWS sites? Well, if you want to use recent history as a barometer, the last 10 years have produced an average end date of 100 degree temps Sept. 25 by the Official temperatures recorded at Sky Harbor International Airport. Heat "waves" or patterns fluctuate over time; from year to year, decade to decade, etc. So to say Phoenix is getting hotter is a stretch (the NIGHT time temps in the heat island are hotter, however).

I'm simply going by the NWS statistics. The 100 year average of the last date of 100 degree temperatures is roughly September 28th. However, in the 30 year climatological averages (1971 through 2000), it's October 2nd. There were lots of hot Octobers during that average peroid ... specifically 1979, 1980, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1993, 1997, and 1999. I'm really confused about the souce you cited for the number of 100 degree days there were since 1997. It's not official NWS data. These are the peak temperatures in October over the past ten years (according to NOAA):

1997: 104
1998: 98
1999: 101
2000: 102
2001: 97
2002: 98
2003: 106
2004: 99
2005: 101
2006: 101
2007: 98

In six out of the past ten years, 100 degree temperatures occurred in October. Most were in the first week ... but 2003 recorded the latest 100 degree temperature ever, which was October 23rd.

Originally Posted by NytoPhx

Aren't the winters here very similar to LA and San Diego. The average high in LA January is 68 and in Phoenix its 66. The winter is the rainy season in both cities, although LA can get a lot more rain in the winter. Nights might be a tad cooler here. How are the winters not close to So Cal's?

Yes. In fact, weather wise, there's very little difference between Phoenix, L.A., and San Diego from approximately late November to about March or April. Phoenix's daytime highs are almost exactly the same as those in southern California. As someone else pointed out, the nights are a little colder in Phoenix, but not all that much. L.A. and San Diego receive more rain in the winter, but we usually get their leftover rains a day or so later.

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by twiggy

Hope your right! It always seems this way though. Especially to us old timers who have been here for 30 years. That last week in Oct. is usually when I know for sure it won't go back up for a min. Even by your set of facts in the last 5 years 3 of them have had 100 degree days. So, it's more likely that one might assume it to happen again. Also, if it's 98, 99, it's still so close to 100 that it could be 100 in one city and not in another. It's still basically 100 degree weather. Still, 100 is a lot better than 105 or 110 and the mornings are to die for right now! It's all good.

But hey, at least it's not a hurricane! I feel so sorry for those people, that is really something to complain about. We are small potatos compared to them! Just a shout out for those poor people. Hope everything ends up ok for them. It doesn't look good right now.
It will cool down here sometime. I would't trade it for evacuations and major home repairs.

I do believe this was just a prediction thread. Just for fun to guess what day it will be, not to prove it won't be. If you feel the need to call me overzealous then you have the freedom, but it's only weather, one degree here one degree there, I mean who really cares? It's just for fun.
Oct. was just my guess. It doesn't mean I will win the "Award", although I want it sssssssssssooooooooooooooooooo bad!!!! You should be happy if you think I am wrong, maybe you will win! Aren't you excited!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Very true, who cares about statistics in a post like this. I guess my current career has me thinking too much like this! LOL. But I think 100 degrees is a mental barrier for many people, including me, that affects the way someone feels physically. I and many I know, maybe some that post on this forum, feel cooler for every 5 degree difference in temperature. To me 105 feels cooler than 110, 100 feels cooler than 105, 95 feels "much" cooler than 105 and so forth. AND the nights and mornings feel incredible right now. I went for a run last night around 9pm with friends and felt a chill during most of my run. So it might be 100 sometime this weekend or next week, so I am still in the running also!

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

I'm simply going by the NWS statistics. The 100 year average of the last date of 100 degree temperatures is roughly September 28th. However, in the 30 year climatological averages (1971 through 2000), it's October 2nd. There were lots of hot Octobers during that average peroid ... specifically 1979, 1980, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1993, 1997, and 1999. I'm really confused about the souce you cited for the number of 100 degree days there were since 1997. It's not official NWS data. These are the peak temperatures in October over the past ten years (according to NOAA):

1997: 104
1998: 98
1999: 101
2000: 102
2001: 97
2002: 98
2003: 106
2004: 99
2005: 101
2006: 101
2007: 98

Don't know why your numbers are off ( ), but I got mine from NOAA and they were from "official Phoenix temperatures" chart. I did notice however, that different zip codes in Phoenix had higher and lower temperatures than the "official" temperature...so may be that is the discrepancy. And like Twiggy posted above, 97, 98, 99 are very close to 100; therefore, the urban landscape, wind direction, etc., could effect the temperature and cause it to be different in locations very close to each other.