Will Phoenix Housing Price continue to drop? (Scottsdale: 2013, credit score)

[ArizonaBear]

Bill and Kevin: the cheapest house in the above area went for at least $160K back in 2005.........spin it anyway you wish-----------the cold numbers speak for themselves.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Bill and Kevin: the cheapest house in the above area went for at least $160K back in 2005.........spin it anyway you wish-----------the cold numbers speak for themselves.

What does 2005 have to do with your previous statement that prices are now in the late 1990's?

What I wrote is fact. Go check some of those cheap houses houses out that are low priced and find out for yourself.

Cold numbers are nothing but that; cold numbers.
There is no way one can determine the value of a property by looking at only a price.

From Jan 1 2005 to Dec 31 2005 here are the stats in that 1/2 mile radius from 12 St and Indian School

Low price 57k
Average price 167k
Median price 165k
High price 285
Average price/sf 145
Average DOM 37
68 home were sold that year in that radius


From Jan 1 2008 to today here are the stats
Low price $35k
Average price $116k
Median pricde 105k
High price 250k
Average price/sf 91
DOM 75
26 homes were sold this year
18 of those homes were REO's and 2 were short sales.

That gives some information on price, and the majority of sales of REO's gives part of the reason for the prices.

However, unless one sees the inside of those homes, either in 2005 or in 2008, the actual value of the property in it's After Repaired Condition cannot be determined. That is extremely important in valuing a property.

[Kevin Beasley]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Bill and Kevin: the cheapest house in the above area went for at least $160K back in 2005.........spin it anyway you wish-----------the cold numbers speak for themselves.

Nobody's trying to spin anything- ArizonaBear- I trust Bills figures- I havnt comped the area because frankly I wouldnt live in that area even if the priced if the price fell to 10k for a 3/2 If you dont like what you hear, than I suggest, you go find a realtor you trust, instead of trying to be one yourself- You run a search on realtor.com and you become a know it all. Those sites are lame compared to the full realtor version of the MLS- Bill simply tried to show you the market condition of that area, and did more work than I would do for free to a stranger, and you thank him by calling him a liar..nice..

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by Kevin Beasley

Nobody's trying to spin anything- ArizonaBear- I trust Bills figures- I havnt comped the area because frankly I wouldnt live in that area even if the priced if the price fell to 10k for a 3/2 If you dont like what you hear, than I suggest, you go find a realtor you trust, instead of trying to be one yourself- You run a search on realtor.com and you become a know it all. Those sites are lame compared to the full realtor version of the MLS- Bill simply tried to show you the market condition of that area, and did more work than I would do for free to a stranger, and you thank him by calling him a liar..nice..

The sharpest monthly drops were in the West. Phoenix posted the largest year-over-year decline of nearly 32 percent in September, the most recent monthly data. Las Vegas dropped 31 percent and San Francisco, nearly 30 percent. Miami, Los Angeles and San Diego all recorded annual decreases above 25 percent.

MSNBC News article

Care to call the quoted article a liar? I did not pull my opinions out of my pocket----------I had probable cause.

[sh9730]

I could care less what happened in September! That is why I ve never liked Case-Shiller as a guide. They are always months behind...

[Kevin Beasley]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

MSNBC News article

Care to call the quoted article a liar? I did not pull my opinions out of my pocket----------I had probable cause.

So MSN pulled comps in your area? (well if it came from MSN it must be true) and was this an opinon? and you had probable cause for what? ok Im lost you win.

[azjack]

Case-Shiller's data and analysis are far more trustworthy than those of the NAR.

Robert Shiller, Karl Case versus Lawrence Yun, David Lereah

[Kevin Beasley]

Originally Posted by azjack

Case-Shiller's data and analysis are far more trustworthy than those of the NAR.

Robert Shiller, Karl Case versus Lawrence Yun, David Lereah

Yea right

[movin'on]

I found a cool free and easy site to you, which I posted in another thread. To answer the OP, I don't know if Phoenix prices will continue to drop (I live in Scottsdale). But I would suggest the tool I used.

My house, even with the declines, is still 62K above the selling price in valuation and as much as $138K over the listed price I paid for it.

These things really are on a zip code by zip code basis.

[markas214]

Originally Posted by Kevin Beasley

. As prices continue to drop so does the condition of the property.

Isn't this a perpetual motion machine that will drive prices down further until inventory matches demand? All those vacant houses will continue to deteriorate and lose value depressing entire neighborhoods. For a potential buyer like me the situation makes me likely to rent until there is a sustained move upward in price.

My price range is around $300k. I'd hate to put 60 grand down and see it disappear in a year. If I do buy I am seriously considering only 5% down and paying PMI. If the house tanks I know I can walk with only a three year ding on my credit, cash in hand saved from the down payment and knowledge that Uncle Sam will watch my back if I want to negotiate a better rate. It's crazy. The best I can do is maybe 5.5% 30 year fixed with 750+ FICO while all the liars and 600 FICO deadbeats get treated to loan modifications with hundreds of thousands of debt foregiven and a 4% interest rate. Hell my grandkids will be paying for it whether I get on board or not so I might as well jump on the band wagon.