Will Phoenix Housing Price continue to drop? (Chandler, Tempe: mortgage, credit)

[winkalit]

I just purchased a house. If you are not asking for any seller's assistance, then I would use the 2002 market value as a starting point. If the home your looking at is in a newer development or an area where there are a lot of foreclosures, then you need to do more homework.

The 2002 market value was about 10% lower than most of the listing prices in the areas that I was looking at.

[NiceJohn]

Are we going to have a severe economic downturn? No one can preditct.It makes me worry. Should I just rent for now? I work my bottom off to have some down payment. I don't throw it down the drain. I am looking for a house in Gilbert. There are some foreclose there. There are a lot of more houses showing up there this month. It is a danger sign.

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by NiceJohn

Are we going to have a severe economic downturn? No one can preditct.It makes me worry. Should I just rent for now? I work my bottom off to have some down payment. I don't throw it down the drain. I am looking for a house in Gilbert. There are some foreclose there. There are a lot of more houses showing up there this month. It is a danger sign.

Pretty soon FHA and seller-held or wrap-around will be the only mortgages available without 25-30% down. FHA only requires 3% total cash to close. So you could get into a $300k house for under $10k. I'll be making this move in the spring. What little money I have is still tied up in my house in VA. No chance of a HELOC anymore.

[altus2006]

Originally Posted by NiceJohn

Thanks for the reply. If I see a house I really like, I am gonna do a 10% price cut. Otherwise, I take off. It is just too risky to buy a house now.

Why don't you move into a rental that you can lease on a short term basis. You do not seem ready to take any risks on a house and the chance of losing some money (or a lot of money) on a house right now is great.

altus2006

[NiceJohn]

Very hard to find a short term lease for renting a house. I can keep looking, but only foreclosure price, or 2001-2002 price. Thank you.

[Rick Lee]

I don't see what's risky about buying a house, unless you're doing it to make a quick profit and there's always risk in something like that. You have to live somewhere. If you're paying rent, you're paying someone else's mortgage. There are some amazing deals out there right now. The house I'm renting now was for sale for $389k when we signed a lease on it for $1450 a month (do that math - no brainer) in February. There are several houses for sale on our street now, a few bank owned. One of them looks even nicer than ours, but is the same layout and it's $275k. Over $100k drop in seven months? How much more can it go down? Doesn't really matter. If you know you'll live there for at least five years, I don't see how you can lose. You might not make a lot of money, but there is some tax advantage to owning, FHA loans are still easy to get with very little $ down and you have to live somewhere. We'll snatch up another house with an FHA loan when our lease expires in the spring.

[NiceJohn]

If you wait longer, price will drop more, you will save significantly. Do not use judgmental word like no brainer. Thank you.

[twiggy]

I believe after the bail out prices will increase due to speculation from home sellers. I don't think it will go down, I think it will go up from here. I would wait a little but not to long. There is supposed to be a new government loan to help buyers wrapped up in this bail out plan. If there is, people will start trying to get what they need out of their homes again. I think we will see a quick rise by about 30,000 dollars. Lets wait a bit and see. But people are sick of giving away there homes for nothing. I don't think they will do it for long if they can help it. People are getting pro active now. I hear a lot of people say they won't go down anymore from now on. See what the plan holds.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Strictly speaking: yes; housing prices will continue to drop for about another 6-12 months but not at the 27% rate from August 2007-August 2008--------more like an additional 10% decline then things (should) start picking up.

I would be inclined to agree. they will drop some, but not at the rate they are today. I think the bottom is nearing or at least lets hope so.

Nita

Twiggy, it is great for people to say, they won't go down any further, it is also very niave. If a person needs to sell and many do for various reasons, you can only get what the market is willing to pay. We sold our home in NM about 4 months ago for $20,000 less than we expected to get, but guess what? We bought our home here for $15,000 less than the sellers thought they would get; it is all relivent.

Nita

[twiggy]

Originally Posted by nmnita

I would be inclined to agree. they will drop some, but not at the rate they are today. I think the bottom is nearing or at least lets hope so.

Nita

Twiggy, it is great for people to say, they won't go down any further, it is also very niave. If a person needs to sell and many do for various reasons, you can only get what the market is willing to pay. We sold our home in NM about 4 months ago for $20,000 less than we expected to get, but guess what? We bought our home here for $15,000 less than the sellers thought they would get; it is all relivent.

Nita

I just think the real issue will be credit but are you watching what's in the bail out plan to help homeowners. This will paint a different picture if it passes. We might want to see what it does. It is designed to give more purchasing power and avoid people having to sell for any less than they already are. There will be more people able to buy and sell if this goes through, and it will change the market quickly. I'm watching what they added to it as I type. I will have to say, this will change a few things. I'll have to wait and see before I predict another down trend.