Will Phoenix Housing Price continue to drop? (Scottsdale, Queen Creek: short sales, broker)

[mhouse2001]

Like the OP, I'm also considering buying. Not because it might be a good time but because cash may not be a good thing. If you have an amount in the bank just earning interest, like down payment savings, what's to say it won't suddenly become worthless? I don't count on the FDIC to keep my money safe since it could easily go bankrupt with so many bank failures. Even if they print more money to cover everyone's savings, that money will quickly have no value. Tangible, physical items such as shelter, food, garden, gold & silver--real money, etc. seem like better things to "own" than US currency. If I own a home or can quickly pay off the mortgage I have something of real value that a stack of 100s can't provide. On the other hand, I'd hate to give up this great but slightly overpriced "penthouse view" rental. What happens next week if/when the market hits 7000 and we collectively lose another $5 trillion in net worth? I'm probably not thinking straight or fear has swept my reasoning faculties away. In any case, it's uncomfortable.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

To run with your ball further: this is going to infuriate many people but I am saying it anyway.

The cold reality is we have way too many people living (or trying to) off of investments, retirement, investments, disability, etc. and we are not even discussing minor age children still in school------------all dependent upon a vastly diminished work force compared to even 20 years ago. A birthrate of 2.1 children per woman (replacement level) and declining is shrinking the supply of worker bees even more and more-----------look at Europe and Japan.

Face it guys: the financial 'house of cards' just collapsed and when it is said and done: aside from the truly elderly, etc.------------most of us will have to keep working, even of only 1-2 days a week.

The party is over.

Good grief, we haven't even had one quarter of negative growth yet and you are throwing in the towel on our entire way of life?

[Howard Roark]

I'll take the contrarian view on this.

I'll be 50 next year. I'm focused on staying in good health because I anticipate working another 20 years.

I work 47 hours per week, on the average. The next 12 months maybe 40 hours per week. But I know that there are productive people in all age ranges. There are also unproductive goofs in all age ranges. All my siblings are older than me and they don't mention retirement.

We are producing useful things. We are not living off of our investments. I could live several years without a job if I want, but I like to be productive and help bring something newer and better to the world all the time.

Human creativity does not die. Depressions put a damper on it, but even in the Great Depression, there were useful things (peaceful uses) that were developed.

The new reality (since last week's crash) is that many people who considered retirement are now going to postpone it. There are a lot of sharp older people out there who are useful to the free market. And this will be a good thing.

I used to subscribe to Harry Dent's ideas of boomers retiring. But boomers are living longer, social security benefits will probably be pushed further out, and and who wants to live next to a hamburger flipper who "afforded" a $300,000 house and gets support from an upcoming bailout anyway? That's what a retireee will discover. Best to take advantage of this stock market drop, and maybe it will be low the next 5 years, so it will be the buying opportunity of the century - in stocks.

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

To run with your ball further: this is going to infuriate many people but I am saying it anyway.

The cold reality is we have way too many people living (or trying to) off of investments, retirement, investments, disability, etc. and we are not even discussing minor age children still in school------------all dependent upon a vastly diminished work force compared to even 20 years ago. A birthrate of 2.1 children per woman (replacement level) and declining is shrinking the supply of worker bees even more and more-----------look at Europe and Japan.

Face it guys: the financial 'house of cards' just collapsed and when it is said and done: aside from the truly elderly, etc.------------most of us will have to keep working, even of only 1-2 days a week.

The party is over.

[movin'on]

I think it depends on where you are looking. According to this link, my value had not gone down at all as of last year.

phoenix home values - search median home prices for Phoenix Arizona area zip codes - azcentral.com

[NiceJohn]

Originally Posted by movin'on

I think it depends on where you are looking. According to this link, my value had not gone down at all as of last year.

phoenix home values - search median home prices for Phoenix Arizona area zip codes - azcentral.com

The data you mentioned is only good till 2007.

[movin'on]

Originally Posted by NiceJohn

The data you mentioned is only good till 2007.

Yes, I know that, but other property values have been dropping since 2005 and mine actually went up. This is why it's hard to generalize. In some areas values are going down and in others holding steady. I said as of last year and 2007 is last year.

[azjack]

"it is a lot better looking at this sorry financial landscape from the window of my own home than it would be from a rental where I am living out of suitcases and boxes while longing to have my own place. When I get angry about it I can kick a hole in the wall without losing my deposit."

That is some colorful imagery. My clothing is located in one of the walk-in closets and in a bedroom dresser. The dirty stuff is in a basket in the laundry room. The Christmas decorations are, however, in boxes in the garage of my rental house.

Yes, I really miss my old hole-kicking days. I wish that I had the great fortune of those on my street who have seen a loss in value of about 50% from the Fall 2005 peak. Or better yet, I envy the knifecatcher who bought in early '07, who is at least 25% underwater. He was real lucky to get in while the getting was good on those low-down payment loans.

"Good grief, we haven't even had one quarter of negative growth yet"

I was not aware that Larry Kudlow posted on this board. Next, we will be hearing about the Goldilocks economy.

[Kevin Beasley]

Originally Posted by movin'on

I think it depends on where you are looking. According to this link, my value had not gone down at all as of last year.

phoenix home values - search median home prices for Phoenix Arizona area zip codes - azcentral.com

You can bet it probably has though...you cant trust those search engines, find a realtor in your neighborhood, or perhaps you have a friend or family member that is licensed. There is no substitution for the MLS when you need a market analysis

[markas214]

Check the MLS. The prices in many areas are still way out of proportion to incomes and rental rates. The outlying areas are now much more in line with what people can afford but vastly overbuilt. We will be in recession in 2009. Credit will be tight. People are upside down in their mortgages which limits their ability to move up. Employment opportunities are slim for people who wish to move to the area. I just don't see an upside for at least a year and likely two or three.

[altus2006]

There is a ploy going on now where the banks and/or Realtors are putting low prices on houses in hopes of getting multiple bids which will push up the price.

Again, "Buyer Beware".

altus2006