Will Phoenix Housing Price continue to drop? (Mesa, Glendale: 2011, to rent)

[Kevin Beasley]

I know Altus it stinks...If you see a beautiful 4 br 2300 sf 3 cg and its priced at 104k you can bet theyre fishing for bids. BUt you can still get a great deal (Oh how I wish I could buy right now) I run into this alot. Just have your realtor do a quick comp for short sales and REO's to find out what a fair offer would be (if it is a house you really want) This may help you aviod being part of a multi counter. I do alot of Broker Price OPinions, and trust me the bank will seldom take less than 10k under what the current market conditions presents the value at. Im sure others will disagree, but thats what Ive found to be the truth.

[azjack]

"and trust me the bank will seldom take less than 10k under what the current market conditions presents the value at. Im sure others will disagree, but thats what Ive found to be the truth."

With the Alt-A and other A.R.M. re-set categories yet to peak, record foreclosures, several bank failures, and an overall financial maelstrom, this unrealistic position by banks with repo'd houses shows that we have clearly NOT reached a point of capitulation in house prices. I frankly do not see that happening for two or three more years. Fighting over an REO at this point seems both silly and a way to get burned financially.

If you have the kind of cash generally needed for a serious down payment, ask yourself if you want to risk going underwater with another 10 or 20% drop. Even with a "reliable" source of income, that extra cash may be helpful in the troubling times ahead. Either way, the "deals" will be better in a year or two.

[Kevin Beasley]

Originally Posted by azjack

With the Alt-A and other A.R.M. re-set categories yet to peak, record foreclosures, several bank failures, and an overall financial maelstrom, this unrealistic position by banks with repo'd houses shows that we have clearly NOT reached a point of capitulation in house prices. I frankly do not see that happening for two or three more years. Fighting over an REO at this point seems both silly and a way to get burned financially.

If you have the kind of cash generally needed for a serious down payment, ask yourself if you want to risk going underwater with another 10 or 20% drop. Even with a "reliable" source of income, that extra cash may be helpful in the troubling times ahead. Either way, the "deals" will be better in a year or two.

Excellent point Jack...

[NiceJohn]

Agree with Jack. I heard this from my real estate agent. The problem we need to find out when Alt-A and A.R.M start to explode. Next year? or coming December?

[movin'on]

Originally Posted by Kevin Beasley

You can bet it probably has though...you cant trust those search engines, find a realtor in your neighborhood, or perhaps you have a friend or family member that is licensed. There is no substitution for the MLS when you need a market analysis

I have no reason to do this as, unfortunately, I'm staying put. I merely am saying one cannot generalize. Scottsdale, for example, is limited in terms of growth and a desirable location, so of course prices are not going to go down like other areas. In fact, they will hold steady and especially in light of retirees.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by movin'on

I have no reason to do this as, unfortunately, I'm staying put. I merely am saying one cannot generalize. Scottsdale, for example, is limited in terms of growth and a desirable location, so of course prices are not going to go down like other areas. In fact, they will hold steady and especially in light of retirees.

Here in 85257 prices have plummeted a good 30% in the last two years.

In fact: according to an article in the EV Tribune---------the average cost of a home in Scottsdale is lower than it was prior to the huge run up.

[azjack]

"find out when Alt-A and A.R.M start to explode."

Here is one Alt-A chart:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHE...laytonAltA.jpg

[altus2006]

Originally Posted by Kevin Beasley

I know Altus it stinks...If you see a beautiful 4 br 2300 sf 3 cg and its priced at 104k you can bet theyre fishing for bids. BUt you can still get a great deal (Oh how I wish I could buy right now) I run into this alot. Just have your realtor do a quick comp for short sales and REO's to find out what a fair offer would be (if it is a house you really want) This may help you aviod being part of a multi counter. I do alot of Broker Price OPinions, and trust me the bank will seldom take less than 10k under what the current market conditions presents the value at. Im sure others will disagree, but thats what Ive found to be the truth.

This is good info. Thanks.

altus2006

[altus2006]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Here in 85257 prices have plummeted a good 30% in the last two years.

In fact: according to an article in the EV Tribune---------the average cost of a home in Scottsdale is lower than it was prior to the huge run up.

As has been discussed before, this zip has older homes that cannot compete with new builds for the same $$$. My dad lives in the far NE part of Scottsdale and prices have continued to go up in his zip, 85262.

Also, Capt Bill once posted a listing in 85257 zip which you had referred to as "plummeting", but it was old and needed a major over hall. People do not have to buy fixer uppers with this market, so if a person doesn't do needed repairs and updates,the property will not sell and the price will go down.

altus2006

[azjack]

"Scottsdale, for example, is limited in terms of growth and a desirable location, so of course prices are not going to go down like other areas. In fact, they will hold steady and especially in light of retirees."

This is simply not true.

Do you really believe that while the rest of Metro Phoenix, the Southwest, and large portions of the United States were creating new highs in house prices through the end of 2005 due to a lending bubble, that Scottsdale, Arizona's prices rose simply because it is just so desirable? Could you possibly believe that? Why are San Diego prices tanking, because it is undesirable?

When all is said and done, will the overall price percentage drops be lower in some Scottsdale zips than in say, Queen Creek/Johnson Ranch? Probably, but that in no way provides even slight immunity to significant price drops in both areas. It is not even an arguable point anymore.