Housing price in Phoenix will drop more? or I should wait? (real estate, 2009)

[NiceJohn]

Thinking about to buy a house. But I am worried that price will go down some more. What you think? Another subprime loan peak will come? When the Phoenix housing will see the bottom? Thank you! John

[mwwwin]

We're still working through the sub prime mess...next is the Alt-A loans (non stated income, "liar loans") that will be resetting. If you can buy a home for what it would've sold for in 2001 I'd go right ahead and buy. Find a good REALTOR that will act as your trusted adviser versus a salesperson - exclusive buyers agents are a good choice (they don't list homes and only work with buyers).

However, the above said, unless you can find a good foreclosure the vast majority of homes are still listed for way too high. I'm going to wait a good year...probably two...maybe three. AZ will be hit hard in the next few years...

This is all only my opinion of course...lots of people will disagree...

[dc1225]

Originally Posted by NiceJohn

Thinking about to buy a house. But I am worried that price will go down some more. What you think? Another subprime loan peak will come? When the Phoenix housing will see the bottom? Thank you! John

John, I'd wait another year at the least....there is nothing to be lost but alot to be gained by waiting some more....while you are waiting, keep looking for something you really want and if you see what you really want, put a bottom lowball offer in there just to see if they will accept. Other wise, wait. If they do, then buy it.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by mwwwin

We're still working through the sub prime mess...next is the Alt-A loans (non stated income, "liar loans") that will be resetting. If you can buy a home for what it would've sold for in 2001 I'd go right ahead and buy. Find a good REALTOR that will act as your trusted adviser versus a salesperson - exclusive buyers agents are a good choice (they don't list homes and only work with buyers).

However, the above said, unless you can find a good foreclosure the vast majority of homes are still listed for way too high. I'm going to wait a good year...probably two...maybe three. AZ will be hit hard in the next few years...

This is all only my opinion of course...lots of people will disagree...

Alt-A LIBORs will recast at a significantly lower rate (and payment) than they are now if present situation holds.

[azjack]

"Alt-A LIBORs will recast at a significantly lower rate (and payment) than they are now if present situation holds."

Not the ones that begin to require amortization.

[foma]

We are saving up for a home, too. I think the Phoenix market has not "bottomed-out" yet. This is an opinion, a hunch and not fact-based. The trick is realizing when the market has bottomed but at least we know the prices aren't going to skyrocket over night so time is definitely on our side.

Personally, I'm not waiting for the market to bottom out. Our goal for a home purchase was summer 2009 and we're sticking to it. In the mean time, we keep saving up. If you do not have a substantial down payment, my suggestion would be keep saving until you do. Loans are only going to get harder to obtain so the more collateral you have, the more comfortable banks are going to be loaning the money to you. IMO, I think the days of sub-primes are o-v-e-r.

[NiceJohn]

A lot of new houses showing up on the listing. I bet price will down quite bit. Let's wait for the 2009.

[dc1225]

in case you didn't get the memo, WAMU failed today....the rates will drop and more houses will become available...wait a year at the least...keep saving money and pay down debt to keep the credit score as high as possible until when you are ready to stomp!

[Howard Roark]

All of our answers are opinions only, you know. But if you consider Phoenix is the 5th largest metro area in the U.S. and a good cross section of the economy, world economics can make or break things here.

World demand for oil is still increasing 3% per year while production is increasing 2% per year. Price fluctuations are short term but the long term is way high oil prices. This will make houses in the far suburbs of Phoenix have to fall in price tremendously, while houses near the light rail and central Phoenix will not fall so much.

Also this big $700 billion bailout. Eithe way if they raise our taxes to cover it or print more money to cover it, there will be a bigger squeeze on our budgets to buy houses in Phoenix.

Combine these and you get more price drops in real estate.

In California, the house I sold for $76,000 in 2000 was "zillowed" as high as $274,000 just two years ago. Now its Zillow value is $159,000 and falling sharply. That's in the overpriced central San Joaquin valley, with no tech jobs, no "location" to justify high prices. For that area, we will see prices dip below the 2000 level.

I think Phoenix may fare better, since there is such a big variety of industry here. But we have more years of price drops. Not a good time to buy now. Wait until 2012.

Originally Posted by NiceJohn

Thinking about to buy a house. But I am worried that price will go down some more. What you think? Another subprime loan peak will come? When the Phoenix housing will see the bottom? Thank you! John

[dc1225]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

All of our answers are opinions only, you know. But if you consider Phoenix is the 5th largest metro area in the U.S. and a good cross section of the economy, world economics can make or break things here.

World demand for oil is still increasing 3% per year while production is increasing 2% per year. Price fluctuations are short term but the long term is way high oil prices. This will make houses in the far suburbs of Phoenix have to fall in price tremendously, while houses near the light rail and central Phoenix will not fall so much.

Also this big $700 billion bailout. Eithe way if they raise our taxes to cover it or print more money to cover it, there will be a bigger squeeze on our budgets to buy houses in Phoenix.

Combine these and you get more price drops in real estate.

In California, the house I sold for $76,000 in 2000 was "zillowed" as high as $274,000 just two years ago. Now its Zillow value is $159,000 and falling sharply. That's in the overpriced central San Joaquin valley, with no tech jobs, no "location" to justify high prices. For that area, we will see prices dip below the 2000 level.

I think Phoenix may fare better, since there is such a big variety of industry here. But we have more years of price drops. Not a good time to buy now. Wait until 2012.

Howard, with utmost all due respect, I think you are giving Phoenix unnecessary props with underlined statement here but its just my personal opinion.