Someone please explain the appeal of Phoenix... (Scottsdale, Tempe: relocation, housing)

[doublet]

Originally Posted by a1m1700

Oh you are moving from Charlotte we are on our way to Charlotte from Az. We visited and bought a house. I'm not sure if you will like Surprise it will be a big adjustment for you. Az schools are not good either.

What part of Charlotte are you moving to? We currently own a bungalow in North Davidson (NODA) Arts District. We bought when the neighborhood was still "in transition" at a reasonable price, and now the house has appreciated to more than twice what we bought it for 6 years ago.

I'm trying to be realistic about the move to the Surprise area and just holding on for 4 years until we can get back. These message boards have me a little anxious and I wish I could find SOME place in the West Valley with decent schools and tolerable levels of crime that could put my mind at ease somewhat. My husband's company will help us with relocation costs, so the main concern is keeping it within a manageable commute time to Surprise. Any suggestions?

[Lehi]

Hi Steve22,
I agree with a good portion of what you've had to say but when you say something like this I have to question you:

Originally Posted by steve22

Now, in some of those neighborhoods, every single house is on the selling block as people try desperately to get out of there, and they're taking huge losses on houses that they invested in.

I am aware that there is a glut of housing available in Pinal County and that resale houses are staying on the market for a long time and that builders are offering incentives such as free pools and cabinet upgrades to sell their new houses but I am curious where these neighborhoods are where "every single house is on the selling block"? I'm not going to say that they don't exist, I'm just curious where they are.

[steve22]

Well, maybe not literally every single house, that's probably an exaggeration. But close to it. I'm guessing that those who aren't listing their houses there probably would if they thought there was any way of selling, but are scared off by the fact that there is such a glut right now, it's almost pointless. There was just an article in the AZ Republic in which they showed a picture of a community in Pinal County- not sure where, but there were probably 6 or 7 houses in a row in the picture's field, and all of them had for sale signs up.

[SpeedyAZ]

Well, maybe not literally every single house, that's probably an exaggeration. But close to it. I'm guessing that those who aren't listing their houses there probably would if they thought there was any way of selling, but are scared off by the fact that there is such a glut right now, it's almost pointless. There was just an article in the AZ Republic in which they showed a picture of a community in Pinal County- not sure where, but there were probably 6 or 7 houses in a row in the picture's field, and all of them had for sale signs up.

It isn't just Phoenix though, look at ALL of California, Florida, Washington D.C. where the market is slowing. Here's a well-written article on it http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp .

[Dwayne Pipe]

Originally Posted by steve22

Dwayne, the main factor which is and will likely continue to shelter Phoenix from the cyclical corrective drop that you're predicting is, in a word, demand. The economy here is strong and figures to continue to be for the foreseeable future, fueled by job growth, which continues to perpetuate the demographic shift in this country of the population from the northeast to the south and west. As long as that continues, and "experts" predict that it will into the next decade (they're predicting that Phoenix's population will crack the 6 million barrier within 5-10 years), then demand will continue to be strong and thus buoy the housing market.

Well, you're already down about 8% the last 9 months, so I suppose that shoots a hole in your theory! Why? Because SUPPLY is a factor, too. It's up about 200% in a year. removed

[steve22]

Originally Posted by Dwayne Pipe

Well, you're already down about 8% the last 9 months, so I suppose that shoots a hole in your theory! Why? Because SUPPLY is a factor, too. It's up about 200% in a year. removed

You're right, supply is in excess right now, which is bringing the market down a bit- especially on the periphery. But I would also predict a slowdown in the building trend, as a consequence of the excess supply. Eventually, it's going to even out and remain at a positive growth rate, albeit much slower than it's been the last couple of years. I still think that, despite the big peak-and-valley phases like we're seing now, the good regional economy will keep it afloat in the long run. Unless (or rather, until), a catastrophic scenario, like an energy or water crisis, happens and everyone's trying to get out at once.

I have to say, the situation in the middle-east which has unfolded over the last few days with Israel & Lebanon is interesting, and frightening. It will be interesting to see how that scenario plays out. If it escalates to the point that Iran becomes involved, and they place an oil embargo on us, experts predict that oil prices could reach $100 a barrel by November, which translates to about $5 a gallon. If that truly does occur, this region is going to be in big trouble. In Phoenix, we simply rely on our cars too much to be able to cope with something like that without drastically altering our lifestyles.

[Dwayne Pipe]

Originally Posted by steve22

Eventually, it's going to even out and remain at a positive growth rate

Nope.

Phoenix real estate will lose another 20% before things "even out", just due to cyclical market dynamics (i.e., long before your predictions re: oil, water shortages, etc come to fruition).

Real estate cycles aren't new; the same thing happened in 1991. It's a bit new to Phoenix, as the city was a backwater in the lastreal estate cycle but has grown to prominence in this cycle.

[Master Shake]

Keep in mind that there are lots of builders out here who have already purchased large blocks of land and need to build and sell houses to cover their purchases and/or loans. Due to the low interest rates, the fairly inexpensive prices, and the high demand of just a few years ago, many builders over-purchased in order to lock in prices. Now the builders have huge inventories of unsold houses and land on hand and need to unload them as quickly (and cheaply) as possible. Given this scenerio and the fact that the housing bubble is deflating, many of the investors (speculators) are now also trying to unload their houses as well -- main reason why so many houses (especially in Pinal County) are for sale. Almost eveyone who has been in the Phoenix area for more than 5 years has probably seen around a 100% increase in the value of their property due to the bubble, which could lead to even more selling (to cash out, so to speak). Definately a buyer's market now.

[Maine2AZ]

Appreciate your perspectives...just a reminder that a slow sales day in Phoenix is a great day just about anywhere else! We bought a home to live in and to have as a home, not as an investment or speculation. Given that, our home will be everything we paid for it. It is what it is....

[INPHX]

Maine2AZ- Wow lots of interesting threads about AZ. You can get caught up with all the predictions of you can just live life. Look I have lived in AZ for 20 years all over, 10 years in Phx the past 3 in the West Valley. If your looking for a good area for you and your family try the Arrowhead area in Peoria or 67th AVE and the 101FWY area in Glendale great schools because it is a area full of very high middle class that care about schools. Peoria schools usually have a A+ grading, Goodyear is growing will be a great place to get your money back out of once all the commercial building is done. They are building a huge mall and it is growing like crazy. Schools are getting better every year. Goodyear has a pretty conservative feel to it because of the air force base . Lots of retires and fast growing suburb of Phx. Goodyear has lots of new homes and a new feel. Close to all major freeways I-10 and 101 and 303 which is Cotton Lane that runs right back into Surprise. Surprise is tough to get in and out of. But like one of the thread stated you have to watch out for a lot of section 8 homes in the newer West Valley neighborhoods. You probably will not find that problem if you stick to homes in the 400K plus range because these homes originally sold for 250k 3 years ago. You also will not have that problem at all in the 67th Ave/101fwy area. Very nice. Scottsdale nice, to far for you and full of the 40,000 a year millionaires. But AZ is full of those and you will find that out soon. AZ is not that bad when your single or retired, but very tough to raise a family.. I too am trying to relocate to the Denver area. AZ summer is just two brutal for my two little ones and figure if I have to stay indoors I would rather be indoors in the winter. But there is nothing like a AZ winter and you will soon see. It's not that bad but will take some getting use to. Especially when you notice all the soccer games are played at night here under lights. ha ha. AZ is probably the only state where you can go snow skiing in the winter and water skiing in the winter if one wanted to. If you like to adventure and don't mind driving to get to it there is a lot to see and do and is rich in American western history. Keep an Open mind and look at it as not being permanent, but an adventure of the west. There is so much through out the entire state to see from Tombstone to Flagstaff to Sedona to The White Mountains. Lots of Native American culture to explore and learn about. Outside of Tucson there are lots of missions you can visit and see how the priest and monks tried to settle the west of it's savages. Between Tucson and Phoenix is the Biosphere. All kinds of festivals come in the winter. Almost everything from Cowboys and Indians to the farming, mining, hiking, exploring, geology, lots of telescopes( observatory's) can be learned and seen in AZ. Like I said it's a great place to see and explore but if just tough for little ones. I would suggest you embrace your AZ stay has an fun adventure and learn all you can about the state your in. AND always take your vacations in JULY>>> best of luck ..