Housing Price Drop?

[john3232]

Any thoughts on East Mesa around the 85205 zip?

Think the price of re-sale homes will fall to around the 2004 price range?

Thanks

[john3232]

Originally Posted by kelle

I think it is impossible to put the entire Phoenix metro real estate market into the same analysis. It's true that population growth won't automatically make housing prices stabilize or increase, but again, that is relative to the town you're in. Look at Ahwatukee, a suburb of Phoenix with top rated schools. It's completely built out, and people really want to live there, regardless of housing prices. You won't see a price drop there in 2007. Then look at Queen Creek - way too many builders offering sweet incentives, a disaster for homeowners who want to sell this year for a profit, isn't going to happen. The west side is a completely different animal. People from California continue to migrate here, they are very partial to the west side, since it makes for a shorter commute 'back home'. So upscale subdivisions like Verrado and Marley Park are seeing so much growth and little price adjustments. You can't generalize the Phoenix market, it's so diverse. I think the primary indicator of housing prices dropping/staying has to do with builder inventory. Suburbs/towns that have very little land to build on have housing prices that are stable. Newer areas that have tons of land and builders are seeing stagnant appreciation, and that will continue until the towns reach build-out, which isn't far off for most of the Maricopa County towns!

Kelle:

I show a person familar with AZ your comment and this was how they replied:



"So upscale subdivisions like Verrado and Marley Park are seeing so much growth and little price adjustments. . . Suburbs/towns that have very little land to build on have housing prices that are stable. . . Newer areas that have tons of land and builders are seeing prices hit hard. . . "

You contradict yourself. So suburbs (actually exurbs) with plenty of vacant land are the only places being "hit hard," but Buckeye (Verrado) and Surprise (Marley Park) are doing great. LOL. Buckeye and Surprise have enormous areas of both incorporated and soon to be incorporated land. They are doubling and tripling in land size, and there still will be tons of land not annexed to the North and West.

Both areas have already experienced solid 15-20% drops from the peak. And the Marley Park people are crying about their special tax assessments for parks within the subdivision.

And Buckeye and Surprise will do really great because they are a little closer to California. That is a good one. Own property in the West Valley, do ya? I will bring that up when I attend the next Surprise City Council meeting as they figure out which taxes/fees to raise and/or which building projects to cut back since their tax revenues from construction mysteriously plunged over the course of 2006.

And so the Queen Creek/Pinal area is tanking, but you think a largely "built-out" nearby area like Gilbert is unscathed by this. Wow. "


I realize he's been rather sarcastic but do you feel there is validity with what he as written?

Thanks

[Winkelman]

Originally Posted by jco

We're number three for young professionals moving in, which means we will have a sustained job market. I'd buy now while the houses are still somewhat low.

Somewhat low?

I could say a lot of things about the current state of the Arizona real estate market but with prices still near record highs, somewhat low is not one of them.

I am a full-time real estate investor who as bought and sold properties in CA, AZ and TX and in my opinion Arizona is heading for a really steep drop in prices. I would expect 10% per year over the next 3-5 years. About 40% in total. Then I will be back buying up everything I can. Prices currently are way too high, wages are way too low and there are too many homes on the market. This situation will take several years to work itself out.

[sheena]

Originally Posted by Winkelman

Somewhat low?

I could say a lot of things about the current state of the Arizona real estate market but with prices still near record highs, somewhat low is not one of them.

I am a full-time real estate investor who as bought and sold properties in CA, AZ and TX and in my opinion Arizona is heading for a really steep drop in prices. I would expect 10% per year over the next 3-5 years. About 40% in total. Then I will be back buying up everything I can. Prices currently are way too high, wages are way too low and there are too many homes on the market. This situation will take several years to work itself out.

I agree when I make money on my house in Charlotte, I'll be back in a few years to re-invest in Phoenix.