Phoenix Housing Crash to Continue in 2009 (credit, house prices, costs)

[TerryTurtle27]

From an independent, unbiased, reputable source....

http://www.housingpredictor.com/arizona.html

[JBlade]

Originally Posted by TerryTurtle27

From an independent, unbiased, reputable source....

http://www.housingpredictor.com/arizona.html

Terry, interesting website...excellent find! I have never heard of this website.

[ArizonaBear]

Suffice to say: judging by realtor.com factoring in core inflation---------the Phx market is near (or at) levels last seen ca. 2004. And; I tend to agree.............the implosion is not over yet.

[Ponderosa]

And the experts were predicting oil at $200 a barrel by the end of this year. Predictions are interesting, but market variables are complex and defy easy analysis. The smart investor ignores the prognosticators and looks for relative bargains in any market.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

And the experts were predicting oil at $200 a barrel by the end of this year. Predictions are interesting, but market variables are complex and defy easy analysis. The smart investor ignores the prognosticators and looks for relative bargains in any market.

No joke about $200 a barrel for oil being history-----------if anything; the deflation there may wind up destroying OPEC.

[altus2006]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

No joke about $200 a barrel for oil being history-----------if anything; the deflation there may wind up destroying OPEC.

Baloney. It costs the Saudias about $2.00 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground according to reports mainstreamed on the news.

altus2006

[markas214]

Predictions are not very reliable but seeing as Phoenix is still up 40% in the past 5 years despite a 17% YOY decline from '07 I can see where the room for further declines is. With the economy poor in '09 I can't see any upside potential at all. Although if rates are pushed to 4.5% I can see many on the sidelines jumping in. If you do make sure you can stay for 5-10 years to recoup any short term declines.

[azjack]

Unlike black gold prices (and yellow gold for that matter), house prices do not turn on a dime.

[w1ngzer0]

yippie, the working class will be able to afford a decent house again

[steve22]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

And the experts were predicting oil at $200 a barrel by the end of this year. Predictions are interesting, but market variables are complex and defy easy analysis. The smart investor ignores the prognosticators and looks for relative bargains in any market.

I wouldn't get too comfortable that cheap oil prces are here to stay or write off the possibility of $200 a barrel oil yet. In fact, I perceive this current oil price plummet to be an aberration which likely has partly to do with the weakness of the global economy and demand destruction it has caused, but even more importantly the deflationary period we've entered due to the credit crunch has significantly strengthened the dollar- hence, cheaper oil.

There are several very well-reputed economists who believe that the huge spike in oil prices we saw over the summer was a reflection and a result of a pathetically weak dollar more than any other factor. It wasn't a supply-demand problem or a result of rampant speculation nearly as much as it was a weak dollar problem. Once the credit situation gets shored up and inflation begins again, and the dollar's value once again starts to fade, I would count on those oil prices shooting back up.