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Old 12-18-2008, 06:59 PM
 
Location: East Central Phoenix
8,029 posts, read 12,217,664 times
Reputation: 9806

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Can the NWS ever get their rain predictions right??? All of last week, they were forecasting a huge area of low pressure would bring significant heavy rains with possible flooding to the Phoenix metro area this week ... and even heavier rain & snow in the higher elevations. Flood watches have been posted all over their web pages, and broadcast on the TV weather reports. This is what was on the NOAA/Phoenix website last week:

Quote:
331 PM MST TUE DEC 9 2008
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...REMAINING A DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
So what actually happened? On Sunday, a trace of rain fell. On Monday, Sky Harbor Int'l received another trace officially. Wow! Me without my galoshes! Monday’s synopsis was even more hilarious:

Quote:
349 PM MST MON DEC 15 2008
A COOL AND WET WEEK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY…
A WINTRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST THE NEXT
THREE DAYS BEFORE TURNING INLAND AND PUSHING THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN LOTS OF MOISTURE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BEFORE IT EXITS THE REGION. SOME OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED THREE INCHES
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES BY THURSDAY...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES COMMON ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA AND THE LOWER DESERTS.
Tuesday's rainfall at Sky Harbor: 0.19 of an inch. Wednesday: 0.01. Thursday morning: 0.05. Total precipitation from the so called "storm" was a quarter of an inch. I'm still waiting for that one to two inch rainfall! The NWS is supposed to have the most state of the art equipment (including Doppler Radar) to make weather forecasts more precise. Seems like a huge waste of gov't money for all that "wonderful technology" when they would probably be just as accurate by spitting in the wind!

On a positive note, I'm grateful for what little rain we received. It certainly has cleaned a lot of the pollution out of the air, and helps reduce water usage ... but I've wondered for a long time if the National Weather Service is even necessary in Phoenix. If so, what's the point in making all those rainfall predictions when the actual totals almost always fall SHORT of their predictions? This agency is a huge disappointment as far as storm forecasts are concerned!
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Old 12-18-2008, 07:04 PM
 
Location: NE Phoenix!
687 posts, read 1,942,999 times
Reputation: 432
Well, it did rain mostly non-stop in NE Phoenix on Tuesday. Wednesday was a total let down, though.
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Old 12-18-2008, 07:18 PM
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
1,384 posts, read 4,287,941 times
Reputation: 1037
Yeah! I thought it was supposed to rain hard all week long. The other day when it rained (Monday?) I was like 'awesome, this is just the beginning!!'. And apparently, it was the beginning AND the end. I am disappointed.
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Old 12-18-2008, 07:24 PM
 
Location: New Mexico
263 posts, read 1,077,658 times
Reputation: 120
Gee, a whole .19 inches. No wonder all the locals were talking about so much rain fall.

Good news is you might get another .72 the rest of the month according to averages:
Average Weather for Phoenix, AZ - Temperature and Precipitation
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Old 12-18-2008, 07:29 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,024 posts, read 51,075,331 times
Reputation: 28217
Had 1.12 at my house. Locations on north side had over two inches and snow bowl got nearly 5 feet at the top and almost three feet at the bottom. That's not the biggest storm we ever had but pretty darn good. Snowbowl opens on Saturday. Sorry for those of you who got cheated on the rain.
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Old 12-18-2008, 09:58 PM
 
69 posts, read 220,829 times
Reputation: 61
Yeah we had over an inch up here on the border of Cave Creek & Phoenix these last 3 days. The McDowell mountains looked good on my way to work this morning - you could actually see them clearly!

I really like how things look here the morning after a good rain. I wish it happened more often. On the sucky side, some of my Christmas lights are not working! Time to check some of those tiny, tiny fuses.
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Old 12-19-2008, 10:05 AM
 
3,819 posts, read 11,917,216 times
Reputation: 2747
The NW part of Phoenix got some pretty good rain, we got about 1.5" here.
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Old 12-19-2008, 10:10 AM
 
6,676 posts, read 5,886,279 times
Reputation: 17031
we turned off the drip irrigation last week in anticipation of a wet weekend. We were praying for sunshine on Saturday for our kid's outdoor 4th birthday party. Fortunately it was dry, but rather chilly. But Sunday and Monday it rained pretty good here in north Glendale.

It's kinda nice to have a little variety in the weather. But now I'm ready to get back to blue skies and hot hot hot.
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Old 12-19-2008, 12:33 PM
 
3,886 posts, read 10,064,252 times
Reputation: 1486
That was a good bit of cloud cover for us though. Didn't see the sun for 2 days. Strange.
I love a good run through in the winter, but, wouldn't take those ice storms they have elsewhere.
NO WAY! We are pretty darn lucky out here, I always forget this until the winter! Remind me this summer when I want it to snow that I said this. lol
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Old 12-19-2008, 03:02 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
1,108 posts, read 3,316,367 times
Reputation: 1109
During th winter of 1992/1993 it rained and rained and rained. It started raining at Thanksgiving and literally kept raining through New Years. The Salt River had such a strong flow of water that the pilings for the construction for the (then) new Mill Avenue were not knocked down. It was on the news.
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