Housing pattern crippled Phoenix

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

That article is total fluff. You could have read the same drivel in each of the recessions of the last 40 years. When the current recession ends, as it will, the outskirts will once again blossom with new homes, shopping, schools and new residents. People want to live here and they want to live where they can have two car garage, a backyard, and a pool. That means growing out. It is not some developer plot - it is the free market.

The article is correct. One of the main causes of the current economic downturn was the collapse of the real estate market. The far flung suburbs that mushroomed seemingly overnight have been the hardest hit because that's where a large percentage of the foreclosures are. Those are the areas where many homes were purchased with sub prime loans ... so when people couldn't make the payments, they abandoned their houses, and the entire area suffered. The Phoenix metro area is too reliant on real estate/home construction, which is why we are feeling the harsh effects from this current recession more than some other parts of the country.

The problem with your attitude (and those who think like you in this respect) is that you generalize too much about why people move to the Phoenix metro area. Do you honestly think that all four million Valley residents want to live in the outskirts in a cookie cutter subdivision? I happen to know many natives and long term residents who would much rather live & work in a more centralized area. That's the true concept of the free market: you have a CHOICE. Some like to live in the outer suburbs, some like the rural environment, and others like the urban amenities. Just because you prefer the far flung 'burbs doesn't mean all of us have to be like you. That's not a free market ... that's more like dictatorship.

There has actually been an increased demand recently for building inward and upward ... a lot of that was related to the skyrocketing cost of fuel. Hence, that's why light rail was approved by the voters, and why it has been a success so far. That's why many highrise projects were planned in downtown Phoenix. Unfortunately, the overall economy has stalled or scrapped many of those projects. NIMBYs and their idiotic protests were another factor as to why some weren't built.

So the bottom line is: there will always be sprawl. We can't entirely stop it from happening, which is good news for you and those like you. However, at the same time, there is also more of a demand for urbanization, which will not be stopped either. Live and work where & how you choose. Not everybody has (or wants) a house in the distant suburbs with an enormous SUV in the garage. Different strokes for different folks is true diversity, and a true free market.

[brianjs]

Every area goes through sprawl growth on the outskirts. This article is nothing original. People want to go where they can afford to buy.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

My thought is that the majority of people want a home of their own with a front and back yard, maybe a pool, a 2 or more car garage and plenty of space for them and their family. Living in a high rise building or sharing a wall with someone else isn't traditionally something that someone in the state wants. The majority will settle for a 6,000 suare foot lot with a home on it then move to the center of the valley to live in a box in a high rise building. If that lot is an hour away from the center of things, many still have what they expect out of life and are willing to make the sacrifice.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

My thought is that the majority of people want a home of their own with a front and back yard, maybe a pool, a 2 or more car garage and plenty of space for them and their family. Living in a high rise building or sharing a wall with someone else isn't traditionally something that someone in the state wants. The majority will settle for a 6,000 suare foot lot with a home on it then move to the center of the valley to live in a box in a high rise building. If that lot is an hour away from the center of things, many still have what they expect out of life and are willing to make the sacrifice.

Like I stated before, there are those who prefer this type of living, and others who don't. Not everybody wants a stucco house in a far flung suburban master planned community. There are some who wish to live in more of an urban environment, and that's why there have been an increase of infill type of developments in the last few years. There are even those who still wish to live out in the middle of nowhere in a ranch house away from a population center. It's called choice. The free market isn't skewed to one type of demographic ... hence, the name "FREE market".

[_Charles_]

1 million in 1955 and 6.5 million in 2008 is for the all of AZ not Phoenix metro. The metro population right now is just over 4 million.

AZ's dependance on real estate cycles and speculation has been a problem for a long time. The result has been a plethora of low paying service jobs instead of a solid core of better paying jobs, an economy vulnerable to boom & bust cycles and profound lack of long term regional planning.

One can hope that this current crash will serve as wake up call for AZ to finally change direction.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by _Charles_

1 million in 1955 and 6.5 million in 2008 is for the all of AZ not Phoenix metro. The metro population right now is just over 4 million.

I noticed that in the article as well. You're right: Arizona has a population of 6.5 million, but Phoenix metro is around four million. Phoenix itself is just under 1.6 million ... which brings up another point: the city of Phoenix shouldn't have been allowed to expand so far north. In fact, I wouldn't have minded if the city limits stopped at the mountain preserve boundary where Squaw Peak (now Piestewa) is. This would have been roughly Northern Avenue. Anything north of that line could have formed separate municipalities & sprawled outward like real separate suburbs. That was actually talked about years ago, but never came to fruition. It would have allowed the city itself to grow more dense & upward, and perhaps have given the actual city of Phoenix a population of slightly over one million today.

Originally Posted by _Charles_

AZ's dependance on real estate cycles and speculation has been a problem for a long time. The result has been a plethora of low paying service jobs instead of a solid core of better paying jobs, an economy vulnerable to boom & bust cycles and profound lack of long term regional planning.

One can hope that this current crash will serve as wake up call for AZ to finally change direction.

You are 100% correct ... and this is something I've been preaching for a long time. I said in another thread that the Valley's business climate is actually very welcoming for entrepreneurs & large corporations to establish their HQs here due to the relatively low taxes and right to work (non union) atmosphere. Unfortunately, we seem to lack a talented, educated populace.

We can only hope we have learned our lesson, and that we need to diversify our economic base more. Unfortunately, based on some of the attitudes right here on this forum that sprawl and cheap land are good for the Valley, I have some doubts about this metro area becoming more globally competitive. As soon as everyone receives their share of the "stimulus package" from Messiah Obama, things will likely return to business as usual.
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[caryberry]

We recently took a ride around Queen Creek - and it was really scary. For every house with a "for sale" or "for rent" sign in the yard - there were five houses on the same block that were obviously deserted. Just because there are porch furniture or yard decorations - if you look closely - you see houses with cobwebs around the garage doors, stacks of newspapers on the porch, overgrown yards. It seemed like the more "for sale" signs the more out of state cars in the driveways. Some of the brand new developments were COMPLETELY empty. We were surprised at the lack of stores, gas stations, and roads.

Maybe the drive until you qualify wasn't such a great idea.