Wait at least one more year before purchasing house! (Phoenix: apartment, to rent)

[markas214]

Originally Posted by foma

We've been looking in the $300K - $390K range and these houses once sold for an upwards of $650K (West Valley area). Since I am not one to make impulse decisions, I never just make an offer without really thinking about whether or not I really want the house. My "dream house" got swept from under me for this reason. I've noticed homes in this price range aren't exactly just sittin' around like the more expensive or less expensive homes. Since $390K is about as much as I really care to pay for a house, I think we have to lower our standards a bit and shoot for a "house we like" rather than a "house we love".

Wait until November. You dream house may well be below 300k.

[azjack]

95% of the March Notice of Trustee Sale filings were residential.

What is the source of that information?

The Arizona Republic, April 2nd, 2009. Referencing Mesa real-estate-research firm Ion Data.

[Howard Roark]

If you had a choice of $300k - $390k for a McMansion in teh West Valley and $300k - $390k for a 1200 square foot bungalow within 400 feet from the Pacific Ocean in the Redondo Beach area, which would you choose?

Los Angeles' only disadvantage is potential earthquakes. But has no hot summer in the beach area, more variety in industry (quicker recovery from recessions), better education facilities, more entertainment.

My only reason for having a residence in Phoenix is only for a tax issue. I work in California a lot and I prefer to pay income taxes to Arizona than to pay them to California.

Originally Posted by foma

We've been looking in the $300K - $390K range and these houses once sold for an upwards of $650K (West Valley area). Since I am not one to make impulse decisions, I never just make an offer without really thinking about whether or not I really want the house. My "dream house" got swept from under me for this reason. I've noticed homes in this price range aren't exactly just sittin' around like the more expensive or less expensive homes. Since $390K is about as much as I really care to pay for a house, I think we have to lower our standards a bit and shoot for a "house we like" rather than a "house we love".

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by azjack

95% of the March Notice of Trustee Sale filings were residential.





The Arizona Republic, April 2nd, 2009. Referencing Mesa real-estate-research firm Ion Data.

I found an April 2nd article referencing Ion Data, but couldn't locate a percentage reference. I've emailed someone to see if he can give me that data. Not that I doubt your word, because the 95% sounds reasonable; but I would like to have the source available for future reference.

The other information that I would really like to have is how many of the NOTS are already listed on the mls as short sales.

There are some interesting articles in the Republic recently, and surprisingly they are talking more on the bullish side than ever. I'm not as bullish as they seem to be. In one article they talk about recovery this year. I'm still looking at the end of 2010.

Here are a few of the articles:

Valley pre-foreclosure notices set record

Valley homeowners starting to see mortgage relief from plan

Promising signs from Valley housing data

[Captain Bill]

=Howard Roark;If you had a choice of $300k - $390k for a McMansion in teh West Valley and $300k - $390k for a 1200 square foot bungalow within 400 feet from the Pacific Ocean in the Redondo Beach area, which would you choose?

If I were 21 and single, then I would opt for the 1200 sf bungalo in Redondo Beach. If I were rasing a family I would opt for a McMansion in the East (not west)valley in a lake community. For $390 I could get a home on the water now. And my kids would have plenty of room in the house.

Our kids are grown and we still need a larger house, for my office, to store our "stuff", to have room to entertain, to have room for our kids and grandkids to sleep when they visit.

Los Angeles' only disadvantage is potential earthquakes. But has no hot summer in the beach area, more variety in industry (quicker recovery from recessions), better education facilities, more entertainment.

California has a lot going for it. We lived near San Francisco for 38 years and loved it. But now we just prefer to visit. Los Angeles also has a lot going for it, although I personally prefer San Francisco



Los Angeles other disadvantages are:

• Horrendous traffic (Phoenix is a picnic compared to LA)
• Smog
• Expensive cost of living
• Higher state taxes
• Extremely high property taxes
• You already mentioned earth quake potential

If I were to really study it and break out all the pro's and con's for me personally, I would still prefer the east valley of Phoenix. That is unless I could afford a $5mil property with at least one acre in Paradise Valley; then that would probably be my first choice

[azjack]

"I found an April 2nd article referencing Ion Data, but couldn't locate a percentage reference. I've emailed someone to see if he can give me that data. Not that I doubt your word, because the 95% sounds reasonable; but I would like to have the source available for future reference."

It is the first article linked: "Valley pre-foreclosure notices set record."

"Most of the notices pertained to single-family homes, with fewer than 5 percent stemming from commercial mortgages."

I took the extra step of subtracting 5% commercial from 100%, and coming up with 95% residential.

"The other information that I would really like to have is how many of the NOTS are already listed on the mls as short sales."

That would require a merging of both countywide public records and countywide MLS recent listings. I do not know of anyone doing that.

"There are some interesting articles in the Republic recently, and surprisingly they are talking more on the bullish side than ever. I'm not as bullish as they seem to be. In one article they talk about recovery this year. I'm still looking at the end of 2010."

Nothing that Catherine Reagor or the Republic publishes ever surprises me. She is one of these reporters who thinks that fairness means pretending that there are two correct answers to every math calculation.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

If you had a choice of $300k - $390k for a McMansion in teh West Valley and $300k - $390k for a 1200 square foot bungalow within 400 feet from the Pacific Ocean in the Redondo Beach area, which would you choose?

Probably the McMansion and so would most people in California if they were forced to choose. I grew up in LA. Those who actually lived in LA and are familiar with the area know that just living near the beach is not a big deal. It makes me laugh when people judge all of Southern California as being beautiful and assume that any area near the beach is amazing when that is far from the truth. There are a lot of trashy areas in southern Califronia near the beach that would remind people of Mesa. You see your fair share Latin and African American gangs, white trash and motorcycle gangs near those areas which is why a lot of people prefer to live more inland in Orange county than live near these areas. There is a reason why Malibu and the more attractive areas of coast are far more expensive. In addition, living near the beach comes with its own price, for one thing, it's a lot cooler especially in the winter. You are not really enjoying that balmy LA weather when you are living right on the beach. As anyone who lives on the beach in So Cal can tell you, it's pretty damn cold in the winter. So no, I would not pay 340K for a shanty house in a trashy area near Redondo just to say I live 400 ft from the beach. Don't get me wrong, I love LA but to have the same house and lifestyle that I have in Phoenix in LA would mean I would have to be Brad Pitt. The vast majority of people living in LA don't enjoy the high life although they want to believe they do. To say the cost of living is higher in LA than Phoenix is an understatement. The sad thing is wages in the LA area are not much higher than Phoenix and in some industries (healthcare), the Phoenix area actually pays much better despite a lower cost of living. I can tell you that I would earn 3 times as less in LA and that is no exaggeration.

[nwlv]

very interesting assessment. I've heard that people, who live in the beach areas don't even go on weekends because it's a mob scene.

[maverick974]

That's actually true. I grew up near Newport Beach California and we rarely went to the beach even then because of the crowds, etc. It was a treat for us kids at the time but my parents didn't like driving us the few miles to the beach for many reasons.
Today, my brothers family lives just a couple miles from the beach and they don't go to the beach much even now other than for lunch or perhaps a glass of wine overlooking the water. Their home is 900 sf and even in todays market is worth around 450K and it was built in the early 60's. Not to mention the traffic is HORRENDOUS even in the off peak times.
For my money, I'm moving to one of the burbs in the Pheonix area. If I want a beach, it's less than 6 hours away. I grew up surfing and as a teenager, I was at the beach a lot but I could never hope to afford something close to the water so I'll visit now and then, get my surfing fix and get the heck out of there. After a few days, I'm ready to leave. Kind of like Vegas. lol.
One of the reasons I am choosing to move to Phoenix is it's centrally located to everything I'm looking for. In just a few hours drive I can be in the mountains, the beaches of So. Cal, Las Vegas, Grand Canyon, the Colorado River, Mexico, Lake Powell, etc. My work will require me to go to Tucson a few times a month as well. Phoenix works for me.
One of the biggest things I always hear about on this forum is the heat. I look at it this way. Here in Oregon, since it blows cold and rains constantly, we are huddled in our heated homes, go to work in our heated cars and work in our heated businesses about 10 months+ per year. We don't get much of a summer. In the desert, just reverse that. Air conditioned cars, houses and places of business. The difference is if I choose to enjoy the sunshine, I can do that virtually 12 months of the year. In Oregon, who wants to go and enjoy the outdoors when it's blowing 40 mph and raining virtually every day.
I'll take the sun any day.
As far as waiting for the "bottom"??? I'll be buying a house soon and I'm buying it as a "HOME TO LIVE IN" rather than an investment. I need a roof over my head, clothes on my back and food on the table. Anything after that is just a bonus....... Well, I do need my bass boat. lol.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by azjack

It is the first article linked: "Valley pre-foreclosure notices set record."

"Most of the notices pertained to single-family homes, with fewer than 5 percent stemming from commercial mortgages."

I took the extra step of subtracting 5% commercial from 100%, and coming up with 95% residential.





That would require a merging of both countywide public records and countywide MLS recent listings. I do not know of anyone doing that.





Nothing that Catherine Reagor or the Republic publishes ever surprises me. She is one of these reporters who thinks that fairness means pretending that there are two correct answers to every math calculation.

But Reagor and the Republic aren't the only ones publishing positive news. The national news is also reporting positive news from economists. (Not the NAR economists)

In a live webinar that I attend with a company from CT, they read excerpts today from some of the articles they're reading there. Some national, and some local.

Some economists are predicting turn around in as little as 4 months. I don't see it happening that soon. However, if the public begins to perceive that things are turning around then there will be more consumer confidence, and that consumer confidence is what is needed to get the economy turned around, in my opinion.