Where are the new foreclosures?? (Phoenix, Gilbert: short sales, rentals, mortgage broker)

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by sfcgee

Thanks, good info. How can I find out the stats for Trustee Deed completed and when do these usually make their way to the MLS? What is another good method to find these foreclosures and put in offers before they hit the MLS (if possible). I'm looking to be active in this next wave and want to have all the data in front of me but there seems to be a shortage.

You cannot buy an individual house from a bank after they have taken the house back at the trustee sale, until they list it with an agent on the mls.

That can take from 4 to 8 weeks, and it all depends on the speed that the bank can work through their various departments.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I've been watching a site that sorts out foreclosures (see Bank Owned Bargains Google Map Property Search )

I've also noticed a lot less "super deals" on the market. I was focused on Litchfield Park area in the high $180's-$200's range. Currently, that site shows 5 out of the 7811. The ones that are in that range were no where as impressive as they were just a couple months back. It seems that I would have to spend $30K more to get the same thing.

I'm planning on living in the winter down in AZ and was looking to pick-up a 3000 sq foot newer home on a 10,000 sq foot lot. I have to close on another property I sold before I can write out a check. if I am reading things correctly, this might be the calm before the storm.

I'm also assuming that this is the peak sales for the area. Come summer when the snowbirds go back home, I'd predict the home prices might fall to stipulate interest.

Any thoughts??

Home prices haven't stopped their decline yet. Except that Queen Creek does show a month of flat prices. They also have less than a 4 month inventory.

Sales generally increase monthly up to the summer and then gradually decrease through the summer.

Sales for this year have increased year over year, so that the inventory valley wide for median prices homes has declined from around 13 months to around 7 months. Some areas are down to 4 months supply. That pattern has continued for over a year now.

In general, prices will lag behind but follow the supply/damand curve. As demand increases and supply decreases, prices will increase. That lag could be a year or more.

At the top of the market, the supply demand curve peaked in April 2005 and the price peaked about a year later in April 2006.

[azjack]

"Thanks, good info. How can I find out the stats for Trustee Deed completed and when do these usually make their way to the MLS?"

It varies greatly. From Trustee Deed date to MLS availability, it would be at least a month. But I see many that have sat vacant (and unlisted) for several months. Perhaps some of these houses are being marketed off the MLS (bulk sales, etc). But I suspect that they are mostly overwhelmed and not in the greatest hurry to compete even more with themselves and other lenders on price.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by azjack

It varies greatly. From Trustee Deed date to MLS availability, it would be at least a month. But I see many that have sat vacant (and unlisted) for several months. Perhaps some of these houses are being marketed off the MLS (bulk sales, etc). But I suspect that they are mostly overwhelmed and not in the greatest hurry to compete even more with themselves and other lenders on price.

I talked with my agent today from Goodyear and he said his bank is releasing Trustee Deed properties BUT he said that many of the banks are not releasing foreclosures and are holding the properties. All banks are behaving differently. Potentially they feel the bottom is near and they are holding off. Potentially they don't want to flood the market. Either way the degradation in pricing is slowing in the neighborhoods that I am looking at. While I want a great deal, I don't want the economy to collapse either. A 3000 sq foot home for $60 a sq foot is crazy good pricing.

[azjack]

"A 3000 sq foot home for $60 a sq foot is crazy good pricing."

When I was in graduate school in the early 2000s, I tracked some new builder tract house prices in areas like Surprise and Goodyear just out of curiosity. I knew someone who moved to this "new" area called Surprise in 1997, and so I was just curious. Plenty of houses of that size sold for well under $180K, and some are listed for much less than that right now. And I am ignoring the semi-stripped houses, some of which have recently closed in the low $100s in your size range. With the massive housing deflation underway and the bank-owned houses in the pipeline, I would wager (and have) that there is more downside as the early 2000s and late 1990s values return.

"While I want a great deal, I don't want the economy to collapse either."

Of course, desire and reality often part ways. I would rather my old subdivision not become slummy. But around three-quarters of houses sold there in the last year have been converted to rentals. While I have no objection to rented single family houses per se as I live in one, I understand that as potential landlords grow impatient with vacancies, standards weaken. That probably accounts for the high percentage of trashy front yards and the uptick in the number of registered sex offenders in the immediate area of my former residence.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by azjack

When I was in graduate school in the early 2000s, I tracked some new builder tract house prices in areas like Surprise and Goodyear just out of curiosity. I knew someone who moved to this "new" area called Surprise in 1997, and so I was just curious. Plenty of houses of that size sold for well under $180K, and some are listed for much less than that right now. And I am ignoring the semi-stripped houses, some of which have recently closed in the low $100s in your size range. With the massive housing deflation underway and the bank-owned houses in the pipeline, I would wager (and have) that there is more downside as the early 2000s and late 1990s values return.

Of course, desire and reality often part ways. I would rather my old subdivision not become slummy. But around three-quarters of houses sold there in the last year have been converted to rentals. While I have no objection to rented single family houses per se as I live in one, I understand that as potential landlords grow impatient with vacancies, standards weaken. That probably accounts for the high percentage of trashy front yards and the uptick in the number of registered sex offenders in the immediate area of my former residence.

MN prices: A new home that I bought in 1986 was $30 per sq foot ($78,000 with 2600 sq foot of living space). It was a pretty nice home. I bought my next home in 1991 with 4000 sq foot for $220,000 or $55 per sq foot. It's only worth $345K in today's market and I added a $40,000 kick butt pool in 2003. It peaked at about $575K in 2005. In MN, there is a good 2 years to go in depreciation. To some degree, we are all in the same boat. We are at 2002 pricing in MN. I bet we get to 2000 pricing as I predict we have about 10% more to go.

As for Phoenix. Checkout http://money.cnn.com/magazines/money...009/index.html ; It says Phoenix has another 20% to go in 2009. Now. I am sure some locations are at near bottom. But as an aggregate, there is more depreciation to follow. My bet is the slowing depreciation is short lived once the banks release more foreclosures. So long as people like me think they are deals to be had, the inventory will start to be bought-up. There are a lot of people who want to move in the Valley.

azjack. You bring up a point that has me a little concerned. You talked about the weakening standards with trashy front yards etc. Is Goodyear and Litchfield Park as bad as say some Surprise neighborhoods???

What is your guess to the percentage of renters on a given street in say Goodyear??

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

See Will Phoenix Home Prices Be Stabilizing Soon? - Housing Doom

The most amazing quote from this article (that was released today) was:

"It looks like in 2009, the cheaper a home is, the better. Over 40% of homes sold in March 2009 sold for less than $100K. Compare that with only 3.5% of homes in 2008 and 2,3% in 2007 sold for less than $100K. "


This clearly states that people are buying steals and deals under $200K. I'd guess if you have a home on the market for $400K, it (statistically) will be sitting and further depreciating until the economy somehow heals or the perception is that the your home is not going to fall in price.

[azjack]

"azjack. You bring up a point that has me a little concerned. You talked about the weakening standards with trashy front yards etc. Is Goodyear and Litchfield Park area as bad as say some Surprise neighborhoods???"

I am just following through logically with the result of more rental units and the still high number of vacants (whether bank-owned or not). The trashy front yard thing can be hit or miss within a subdivision, but HOAs with falling revenues often do not enforce standards. Some HOAs still do a good job with common areas, but appear unwilling to "clean up" problem yards. I understand that the HOA resources are limited (and often shrinking), but I think that blitzing a neighborhood with some weed killer and trash bags on these yards would yield far more community beauty than having picture-perfect greenbelts in a given subdivision. Yes, people (and banks) should do this stuff on their own, but reality must also be factored in.

A relative of mine who has several pre and post foreclosures on her Surprise block has really high weeds on both sides of her. She has tried to spray them a bit when she does her own yard, but doing three or more full yards is too much for an individual resident. Yet this same subdivision still has the most perfectly manicured common-area grass this side of Pebble Beach. I think that they should re-prioritize.

The sex offender on one's block thing usually was just a bad luck lottery in the suburbs. If there was one, it was just chance not going your way. What caught my attention is that a radius search of my old address went from 0 to 3 in under a year. Standards.

"What is your guess to the percentage of renters on a given street in say Goodyear??"

When I think of Goodyear in comparison to Surprise, I would probably characterize the two places as 90% similar. I think that this would vary greatly by subdivision, and it would not be fair of me to make a guess. It would be fair of me to surmise that a large majority of current sales will end up in the rental market. And there were many rental single family houses in Surprise and Goodyear to begin with. Some houses were actually never occupied by anyone, but still flipped multiple times.

Please do not get the idea that the majority of rented-out houses have garbage yards. They are just more likely to be vacant and managed from a distance. You can look up registered rental houses by street and city at maricopa.gov , but not everyone registers. If you can, fly in and get to know any potential subdivision before any future purchase.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

See Will Phoenix Home Prices Be Stabilizing Soon? - Housing Doom

The most amazing quote from this article (that was released today) was:

"It looks like in 2009, the cheaper a home is, the better. Over 40% of homes sold in March 2009 sold for less than $100K. Compare that with only 3.5% of homes in 2008 and 2,3% in 2007 sold for less than $100K. "


This clearly states that people are buying steals and deals under $200K. I'd guess if you have a home on the market for $400K, it (statistically) will be sitting and further depreciating until the economy somehow heals or the perception is that the your home is not going to fall in price.

Great source - housingdoom.com. Just what we needed on the forum, another housing gloom-and-doomer. And this one from Minnesota no less!

[roosevelt]

Who in their right mind is going to buy a former $450,000 house for $230,000 and see that the property taxes are still $5,000 or more a year? There are people who own their homes free and clear and are struggling to pay their property taxes and utilities. Look for more foreclosures and bankruptcies as more and more cannot pay their bills. It takes some 9 months for a foreclosure so more are on the way. The federal and state governments are going to have to raise taxes even more. The free medical and entitlement load is incredible. Economic decline may come to some formerly nice areas because of the cheap sales and rentals and I would not want to get stuck in a house I can't sell.