Greater Phoenix Real Estate Statistics May 1,2009

[joninaz]

I'd be interested in how the PHX numbers compare with SoCal, one of the biggest feeder markets to PHX.

During the bubble, prices there were crazy high... something like 80% of residents couldn't afford to buy in some parts. I know prices there have tumbled as well, but are still pretty high for desirable areas. The cheapest house in Venice, for example, is over 600K (and tiny), and Venice is less desirable than other West side locals. Decent yet ho hum San Diego and OC homes are still half a million or more. If the market has bottomed there, it would seem a lot of fence sitters looking for a deal might start looking to AZ as an alternative.

We tend to think of pricing in terms of Gilbert vs. Scottsdale vs. Goodyear, etc. But doesn't it start with people in Santa Monica or Pacific Beach wanting a house, looking at prices, and seeing that they can get a heck of a place in AZ for a third the price?

Of course not everyone wants to move, or move to AZ. But CA is what? 36 million people? There's not much room for new housing growth, except by replacing houses with apartments/condos. It would seem logical that as California stabalizes and prices grow, those that were hoping for place will start expanding their search. It certainly fueled the growth of AZ and Vegas when prices in CA started taking off.

[markas214]

Originally Posted by joninaz

I'd be interested in how the PHX numbers compare with SoCal, one of the biggest feeder markets to PHX.

During the bubble, prices there were crazy high... something like 80% of residents couldn't afford to buy in some parts. I know prices there have tumbled as well, but are still pretty high for desirable areas. The cheapest house in Venice, for example, is over 600K (and tiny), and Venice is less desirable than other West side locals. Decent yet ho hum San Diego and OC homes are still half a million or more. If the market has bottomed there, it would seem a lot of fence sitters looking for a deal might start looking to AZ as an alternative.

We tend to think of pricing in terms of Gilbert vs. Scottsdale vs. Goodyear, etc. But doesn't it start with people in Santa Monica or Pacific Beach wanting a house, looking at prices, and seeing that they can get a heck of a place in AZ for a third the price?

Of course not everyone wants to move, or move to AZ. But CA is what? 36 million people? There's not much room for new housing growth, except by replacing houses with apartments/condos. It would seem logical that as California stabalizes and prices grow, those that were hoping for place will start expanding their search. It certainly fueled the growth of AZ and Vegas when prices in CA started taking off.

Those people will need jobs.