Real Estate Market - Depreciating, Staying Same, or Appreciating? Please help! (Phoenix: relocating, hotels)

[EstrellaMountainRancher]

Hi! I currently live in Estrella Mountain Ranch in Goodyear. In this southwest area of the Valley, we are going through a major development period:

-Estrella Falls Mall, which will be comparable to Chandler Fashion Center, will be located off McDowell between Pebblecreek Pkwy and Bullard. It's slated to open in phases, beginning fall 2008.

-A new spring training stadium for Cleveland Indians is scheduled to be built over the next two years and open off Estrella Parkway in 2009.

-New shopping centers, restaurants, hotels, etc to open all along Estrella Parkway and Cotton Lane over next 2 years...some already built, many already in the process of being built.

-Widening of I-10 from 3/4 lanes each direction to 6 lanes each direction between Sarival Lane (just west of Estrella Pkwy) and 101.

-Addition of two new I-10 exit ramps (Bullard and another one - can't remember which one) to help ease traffic, especially once the mall is open.

My husband and I bought our house in summer 2005. Right now (and over the past year and a half since we bought our home), it seems to me that home values in our area are kind of staying the same...could be wrong, though. My question is this...If we're thinking of relocating within the next few years to a different city, what can we reasonably expect the southwest Valley, specifically Goodyear, to do over the next 1-5 years, in terms of the real estate market? We're wondering if our home's value will decline, appreciate, or stay the same between now and 2008-12?

We think it's possible that home values in our area will appreciate once all the "new stuff" mentioned above is finished, because businesses, shops, reataurants, entertainment will be more easily accessible to residents of Goodyear, making it more desirable. We also wonder if once all the "new stuff" is finished being built, Estrella Mountain Ranch will be even more desirable, because it will be located close to all of these new shopping/eating/entertainment options, but it will still be "tucked away" in it's own private little area, free from any commercial development directly in our backyard?

We also understand that the real estate market (in general) is in a "weird" phase right now. Some areas around Phoenix have depreciated, and some have appreciated a little or a lot. Some areas have stayed the same, some could go (further) down, and some could start appreciating relatively soon. We understand that many people like to speculate, and that doom and gloom theories abound, but we'd like to request some informed, intelligent estimates/reasons/guesses regarding the value of our home over the next few years. What can we reasonably expect?

Any takers??

[Ponderosa]

I doubt that any of that is going to add much to EMR's appreciation. What would help is commercial (grocery, bank, etc) NEARBY because a lot of people walk away on this place when they reflect on what a hassle it would be driving ten miles for the basic necessities. The grocery and other commercial - 75K square feet anyway - is coming next year.

I think values here (I live in EMR too), will following the same track as the rest of the valley which according to RL Brown, a respected source, will be flat all of '07 and some of '08 and then resume their historic appreciation rate of near or slightly above the inflation rate. If you bought in the last year or so it's going to take 2-3 years to cover the costs of sale.

[Gretchen B]

It sounds to me like you've done an excellent job of analyzing your area and the potential for price appreciation. I'm up here in northern AZ so I can't speak specifically to the Goodyear area, but there's several factors that affect prices and I think you've hit on almost all of them. Of course, the thing that no one can probably predict with any accuracy is what the economy in general will be like in a few years and what long term interest rates will be--both of which can have a HUGE impact on the housing market.

The other things you've mentioned, though, would bode well for your area, i.e. shopping and other amenities, a housing development that retains it's feeling of privacy/seclusion, proximity to jobs (which Phoenix continues to be one of the hottest job markets in the nation right now), etc. It's always about location, location, location. Overused phrase, but if you have a home in one of the most desirable areas (and you're not having to compete with alot of new homes and builder incentives), then generally speaking your home should retain its value, and if other economic factors are favorable, should continue to appreciate.

Of course, it would be wonderful if we knew what the housing future holds. We'd all be rich! As long as your home holds its value in relation to inflation, you're still ahead of the game due to tax deductions, etc. And if the value increases over the next few years, you've probably made more money on your investment than you could have in a money market account.

[AZMonsoon]

I also heard that the I-10 ( right at about the 303 on to Cali) will be expanding to 24 lane highway. Of course, this is going to be a huge development of residential to commercial, and retail. I will investigate this further and follow up with you later.