Is Phoenix the next Detroit? (sale, foreclosure, mortgages)

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by adolpho

We waited 20 years for ther yellow line to come to Springfield Virginia. Paid that crappy extra gas tax the whole time. Thanks, Frank.

Had to chuckle at your post: I left the DC area (born/raised there) in 1978 when there were but two Metro lines in operation; the one between Rosslyn and Farragut Square as well as the one that went near Georgia Ave in Silver Spring.

[MorganTrinkaus]

I think some of you guys are tiptoeing around the bigger issue, which concerns demography. Black people became the majority of the population in Detroit in the early 1970s and elected the first black mayor in 1973 (Coleman Young). That's when white flight really took off. (It did not help that Young was a classic race-baiting, corrupt mayor.)

There are some parallels between the Phoenix of today and the Detroit of the 1960s. The Hispanic population of the city is soaring, both in absolute and proportional terms (the city was 34% Hispanic in 2000; now it's probably over 40%). White and black residents have already moved out of several neighborhoods as the Latino influx has arrived. The city is likely to hit the "tipping point", in which Hispanics become the majority, within a decade or so. Maricopa County, too, will probably eventually become Hispanic-majority. What then? I don't mean to sound the alarm of race war or anything, but when a city's demography changes, you never really know what to expect. Maybe the example to avoid isn't so much Detroit as Los Angeles.

[lyzzard]

When you're making a post about racial demographics on a forum for a website that has those demographics available, please check them first:

• White Non-Hispanic (55.8%)
• Hispanic (34.1%)
• Other race (16.4%)
• Black (5.1%)
• Two or more races (3.3%)
• American Indian (2.7%)

Technically, according to your own post, the percentage of Hispanics hasn't really changed at all since 2000. (I understand you can't exactly count the illegals, but we aren't really discussing the illegals are we? )

[intmd8r]

I haven't read through the entire thread, but will respond to the OP.

Moved to Phoenix in the late 90's. Thrived. Both my husband and I lost our jobs in late 2008 (within a month of each other) and we finally left in summer of 2009. Our horrendously upside down home (bought for $164.25/sq ft in 2006, sold for $78.90/sq ft) finally closed/sold last week via short sale.

My husband was in the auto industry (service advisor) and those jobs are not to be had there, period. I was the controller of a real estate brokerage, which also felt the pinch and opted to hire my temp replacement who was willing to work for less, while I was on maternity leave.

We don't regret our time in Phoenix as we thrived for a long time. But when it came crashing down, for us at least, it crashed hard. We went from $150k+/yr to unemployment benefits with a newborn in a span of two months. Luckily for us, we don't use credit cards and the only debt we had was our home and two VERY small car payments (less than $200 each). Still, we could not survive on so little and had to make a change. We left and came back to Minnesota where my family is. I was offered a job without even looking for one and am now working part-time at said job.

I personally think Phoenix may be in a little trouble, simply due to the real estate aspect and the state government issues, but agree with someone who said they believe it will be the suburbs that really feel it.

We lived in Palm Valley in Goodyear and it's a beautiful area. I hope I'm wrong, because I would hate to see that area lose its luster. But we already saw so many vacant retail establishments before we left and so many rentals in the area...

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by MorganTrinkaus

I think some of you guys are tiptoeing around the bigger issue, which concerns demography. Black people became the majority of the population in Detroit in the early 1970s and elected the first black mayor in 1973 (Coleman Young). That's when white flight really took off. (It did not help that Young was a classic race-baiting, corrupt mayor.)

There are some parallels between the Phoenix of today and the Detroit of the 1960s. The Hispanic population of the city is soaring, both in absolute and proportional terms (the city was 34% Hispanic in 2000; now it's probably over 40%). White and black residents have already moved out of several neighborhoods as the Latino influx has arrived. The city is likely to hit the "tipping point", in which Hispanics become the majority, within a decade or so. Maricopa County, too, will probably eventually become Hispanic-majority. What then? I don't mean to sound the alarm of race war or anything, but when a city's demography changes, you never really know what to expect. Maybe the example to avoid isn't so much Detroit as Los Angeles.

Two quick notes here:

#1: there is no Hispanic race; it is a political label only-------read that some are White or Black, not all of them are Indian (full or part).
#2: our illegal alien population has dipped (officially) ca. 20% since 2007 although, the decline is closer to 30% IMHO. judging by the huge numbers of empty storefronts and housing units in the 'barrios'. I have seen the results of said exodus with my own two eyes.

[adolpho]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Two quick notes here:

#1: there is no Hispanic race; it is a political label only-------read that some are White or Black, not all of them are Indian (full or part).

Just a minor detail. Talk about alienating people.

[intmd8r]

USA Today predicts another 0.6% job LOSS in 2010. Of course, we all know you could probably find others predicting just the opposite; it's who you ask.

But for what it's worth:

How jobs growth forecast was done - USATODAY.com

You can view by state or by metro. By metro shows the loss for Phoenix.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Steve-o

First off, Detroit's "bad weather" is hardly a factor in its decline, lets not be silly. Remember, at one time, Detroit's population was extremely healty and had growth rates that would make Phoenix jealous. I dont think people, unlike Zonies, give a crap about weather, especially when a place like Detroit (while in its prime) offered so much. It really was a great place to live, and sadly the Big 3 let things slip away.

I lived in Detroit from age 14 until 29 and, for me, weather was a HUGE factor. I hated the snow in the winter, with ocassional ice over the streets making it extremely dangerous to drive, and the salt that they put on the snow that rusted out your car.

The summers were extremely humid and I was always uncomfortable. My sinus problems existed all during my stay in Detroit. When I left that area, my sinus problems disappeared.

A big part of the growth rate was due to people, like my family, migrating from Tennessee and other southern states to get off the farms and work in the Detroit factories. There were probably at least 100 of my relatives, (parents, uncles, aunts, cousins, etc) who weny to Detroit only for the work. When they retired, like my parents did, they moved right back to TN, because they hated the weather. Most of their children who have all retired, also went back to TN.

Many of their grandchildren, who were born in Detroit and made their carreers there are still there, and they are probably part of the white exudus to the suburbs.

So I saw a migration there to work, but with nothing to make them want to stay after retiring.

Phoenix, on the other hand, is a retirement destination, and a winter home destination for people who live in colder climates. So we don't have that exodus after retirement. Instead we have an influx.

Because people want to come here to retire to the more desirable weather, and because our housing here is cheaper than other parts of the country and Canada where many of our new population come from, I cannot foresee Phoenix becoming another Detroit.

I see the current recession as a bump in the road which we will eventually cross.

Phoenix does need to work on creating more jobs. And we have to get through the commercial debacle which, at the present time, we don't know how bad it will be.

Those who stand to profit from any commercial decline, such as "gurus" who will charge $20,000 for a week end seminar to teach you "how to profit in the upcoming commercial building slaughter, with no money out of your pocket", are really preaching gloom and doom. How else would they attract fortune seekers willing to plunk down that kind of money to listen to a snake oil sales pitch.

[cropper]

Godaddy is based in phoenix go for a job there

[intmd8r]

Originally Posted by cropper

Godaddy is based in phoenix go for a job there

Ha!

I know people who used to work there and they unanimously have told me it's a TERRIBLE place to work.