Some good news; Valley expected to have one of the nation's boost in hires...

[cmist]

Originally Posted by Wyoming Darrell

I have to get into this conversation because I think I have something to add.
We came down here in February to see what the market was. We primarily checked in the Surprise area and found that there were several houses of the type we wanted, at around $150,000.
We went home and sold our home and small business. By the time we got everything done, it was the first week in October. We came down and found that the type house we wanted (three car garage and pool,single level) was now around $195,000. By the time that I came in first on offer, It was the last house like it on the MLS in Surprise, and we had to give $210,600.
Based only on my own experience the market is going up.

That is good news, well for the home seller, not so much for you.

Was it a bank sale or regular? What subdivision are you in? You got me curious

[andrzejn]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Despite national attention as the state with the highest percentage of job losses, the Valley is expected to beat the national average of firms planning to hire beginning next quarter. The national average is 12% of firms and the Valley's average is 17% of firms with plans to hiring more people.

Good news as signs of recovery and employer confidence in the economy rebound:

Valley is likely to see boost in hires in quarter

Signs from real estate:

1.Last month was the second-best November for home sales in the area's history. Only November 2004 was better.

2. Phoenix's housing market hit bottom in early April, said Mike Orr, principal of the Cromford Report, a real-estate research firm. Based on current price trends, the housing market could start to see positive appreciation rates by March.

3. Jim Belfiore, president of Belfiore Real Estate, said almost one-fourth of metro Phoenix's current new-home developments will sell out in the next six months. New-home prices fell about 15 percent in most subdivisions during the past year.

4. Foreclosures and pre-foreclosures fell in Phoenix during November. Foreclosures dropped 21 percent from October to 3,808, according to the Information Market.

Housing business picks up in Valley; foreclosures drop

As the article goes on to state, December will be an important month for more economic indicators as we'll see if the falling foreclosure, pre-foreclosure, and short-sales continue.

Just for some interesting reads; the priciest homes sales in the Valley this week:
The Valley's priciest home sales

Arizona dropped from the second most economically stressed state to the 5th and continues showing signs of improvement: Maricopa County also improved and is not on the 20 most stressed counties list for October either:
U.S. economy to see sluggish recovery

Thought I'd give some good news for a change...

And how is this related to firms hiring in Q1

[azjack]

"We primarily checked in the Surprise area and found that there were several houses of the type we wanted, at around $150,000.
We went home and sold our home and small business. By the time we got everything done, it was the first week in October. We came down and found that the type house we wanted (three car garage and pool,single level) was now around $195,000. By the time that I came in first on offer, It was the last house like it on the MLS in Surprise, and we had to give $210,600."

I think that limiting yourself to houses with a pool reduced your choices. If I were to buy something in Surprise, where I have lived for eight years, I would probably have expanded the scope to include lots with room for a pool (if I wanted a pool). There are active listings in Surprise for large houses (over 2,500 sq ft) well under $200,000 today, some of which have lots large enough to fit a pool. While many houses have more than a two-car garage, most have two-car garages, and that requirement also reduced your pool of choices (pardon the pun). Regardless, enjoy your time in Surprise.

[Phoenixxx]

Originally Posted by azjack

I think that limiting yourself to houses with a pool reduced your choices. If I were to buy something in Surprise, where I have lived for eight years, I would probably have expanded the scope to include lots with room for a pool (if I wanted a pool). There are active listings in Surprise for large houses (over 2,500 sq ft) well under $200,000 today, some of which have lots large enough to fit a pool. While many houses have more than a two-car garage, most have two-car garages, and that requirement also reduced your pool of choices (pardon the pun). Regardless, enjoy your time in Surprise.

LONG POST ALERT!!!

Hi! I'm a realtor in Phoenix and AZJACK is completely right. The type of home you bought is very specific and whittled down even more by the single level and 3 car garage criteria.

I did a search on the ARMLS system and found 4 homes that meet the same criteria that are all far below what you paid. Here are the MLS#'s if you want to pull them up on Realtor.com or somewhere else. All single levels with pools and 3G in Surprise.

Moderator cut: against TOS
After those, then price does indeed jump to $222K But remember, the market in December inventory is always at an all time low, so the scarcity of homes in the price range is due to the time of year and not because the inventory level is the same but full of higher priced homes.

I'm not trying to make you feel like you overpaid, but trying to provide some professional experience to the thread which seems to be missing.

[pmod] consumer complaint not allowd [/mod]
Moderator cut: against TOS
To start with there is an enormous amount of short sales and foreclosures. Maybe somewhere over 50% but here is the kicker. The other 50% of people who are on the market are priced at what they need to clear and not priced at market value. If they can afford their payments, they take a stab at selling it but predetermine that if it doesn't sell for what they need, they will just stay. Most of those are not selling nor will they ever until they reduce their prices to compete with bank bargains. This for now is keeping our sales prices higher than they should, but if the economy goes further south, you will see more of these casual home sellers turn desperate causing prices to drop yet further.

All the data you are seeing for homes sold is majorly comprised of REO's, short sales, etc. There will never be a way to declare any type of bottom until you can analyze it free of the banking mess, which as AZJACK says, I think that well is far from dry too.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but its an insider look from someone that works this market. Honesty is my biggest asset in this business. Many agents try to hide information to make a sale, but I prefer to educate. If things do turn for the worse, people don't look back at me and say, but you told me everything was getting better. My educated opinion is that we're moving along but we have worse to experience before we see a rebound.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by azjack

I think that limiting yourself to houses with a pool reduced your choices. If I were to buy something in Surprise, where I have lived for eight years, I would probably have expanded the scope to include lots with room for a pool (if I wanted a pool). There are active listings in Surprise for large houses (over 2,500 sq ft) well under $200,000 today, some of which have lots large enough to fit a pool. While many houses have more than a two-car garage, most have two-car garages, and that requirement also reduced your pool of choices (pardon the pun). Regardless, enjoy your time in Surprise.

I dunno. I think it is better to buy a house with a pool if you must have one. Pools don't return much on investment even in good times, so it should always be better to find one the previous owner took the hit on - particularly considering you finance the pool at less than 5% on a purchase money loan you won't get a deficiency judgment on if you walk away down the road. As for a 3 car garage - if you want one then you have to find a house with one. Your advice to lower your standards until you can find a bargain is good if all you are looking at is potential appreciation. But if the house is to be your home for a longer period, then you buy one that has the features you want. I think WD's experience shows that the more desirable properties - pools, 3-cars and foreclosures in top condition, are getting harder to find on the bargain rack.

[aoeu00]

So, I guess the bottom end of the real estate market is doing fine? What about homes at $250k+?

Anyways, I remember hearing that the "commercial" real estate market was on the verg of collapsing. Earlier this year, some predicted it would collapse by this 2009 4th quarter? Has it happened? Is happening? Still pending?

[azjack]

"I dunno. I think it is better to buy a house with a pool if you must have one. Pools don't return much on investment even in good times, so it should always be better to find one the previous owner took the hit on - particularly considering you finance the pool at less than 5% on a purchase money loan you won't get a deficiency judgment on if you walk away down the road."

That would seem to be the case (re: pools not retaining value), but if you feel that you just have to buy in 2009, it limits your choices and might place you in the position of overpaying. When all is said and done, a large house in Surprise, AZ can be bought in good shape for significantly less than $210K today. And I am sure that pool installation prices have also deflated based on market conditions.

As for desirability, many people consider pools to be a liability in terms of maintenance and the obvious dangers. But that is a subject for another thread.

[Phoenixxx]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I dunno. I think it is better to buy a house with a pool if you must have one. Pools don't return much on investment even in good times, so it should always be better to find one the previous owner took the hit on - particularly considering you finance the pool at less than 5% on a purchase money loan you won't get a deficiency judgment on if you walk away down the road. As for a 3 car garage - if you want one then you have to find a house with one. Your advice to lower your standards until you can find a bargain is good if all you are looking at is potential appreciation. But if the house is to be your home for a longer period, then you buy one that has the features you want. I think WD's experience shows that the more desirable properties - pools, 3-cars and foreclosures in top condition, are getting harder to find on the bargain rack.

I agree Ponderosa. If you want a pool, first try to find a home that has one, but it does cause you to limit your choices.

At times, it might be wiser to scrap the pool requirement. If dropping that requirement gives you 50 more homes to choose from, it is possible that one is hiding in there that is your dream home with plenty of room in the yard as well as pricing to add one later.

Single level homes with 3 car garages are hard to find in any market because there are fewer of those in existence at any price. There was always a higher demand for this setup even in the worst of markets because of the scarcity. In that sense its not the best way to measure the market.

When you see a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1600 sqft home with a 2 car garage and no pool on a small lot go up in value, then you can truly say, things are looking up.