Some good news; Valley expected to have one of the nation's boost in hires... (Phoenix: short sales, foreclosures)

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by cmist

Because use of the worst "best" implies its better than something else that isn't specified. As I said, I did my own analysis of 2005,2006,2007.

Home prices in 2006 were double what they were in 2009 AND they sold in a few days on the market. They didn't have a chance to accumulate into a glut that would later be auctioned off at dirt cheap prices.

I do NOT consider that activity better than earlier time frames, other than maybe 2008 where things were more stagnant due to banks holding out for prices that couldn't be achieved. Of course its great news they are finally dumping their trash, but at what cost? Volume of homes sold while leaving out sales prices is incomplete information and means nothing by itself.

What if everyone put their home up for $1 and the whole city sold in 1 day? Should we consider that the best day in Arizona real estate history?

I think you are just trying to find the thorn among the roses. Regardless of how you want to define "best" there is no arguing that housing data and economic indicators over the past couple months are pointing to a brighter future. I will be the first to admit that the data are only of few months length and it may be premature to call it a trend. Also, there are land mines out there that could go off. But, across the economic spectrum - with the exception of employment which unfortunately will always lag - things look far, far better today than they did one year ago today.

[cmist]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I think you are just trying to find the thorn among the roses. Regardless of how you want to define "best" there is no arguing that housing data and economic indicators over the past couple months are pointing to a brighter future. I will be the first to admit that the data are only of few months length and it may be premature to call it a trend. Also, there are land mines out there that could go off. But, across the economic spectrum - with the exception of employment which unfortunately will always lag - things look far, far better today than they did one year ago today.

Agreed, its better than last year and I would have nothing to say if thats what the point of the article was.

But when they say "Valley Employers" are hiring. Who are we talking about? Walmart, Burger King, Honeywell, Boeing? I would get a better picture of this expected recovery if they provided details on who it is thats all of a sudden got reasons to start hiring en masse.

Or WHY are they saying its the best November since 2004 if sales prices are way down? Why eliminate the fact that it took lower sales price to spur the sales volume?

For instance, you could report this way. The number of units sold in the Valley was greater than any other previous November since 2004. Banks were previously holding out for higher prices, but now that they have lowered list prices to a level that is affordable to many, the glut of backlogged inventory has begun to sell. Of course the downside to this is that sale prices are down, but we can't hope to recover until we flush the system of these type of sales.

The above paragraph is truthful and a long way from a statement like its the best November since 2004. That time frame goes even BEFORE the peak when homes were selling for double the price at record pace. It makes the reporter look like a dreamy bubble head and discredits everything.

[azjack]

Hundreds of billions in govt spending stimulating some activity in privileged business sectors (auto, banking) does not create stable, meaningful economic growth. Juicing people's wallets by temporarily lowering IRS withholding, offering them $8K from the Treasury to bid on some house, offering them $4K to buy a (rapidly depreciating) new car - none of these things can prevent the cost of lending bubble from being realized.

Some may end up believing the hype, and be utterly shocked by DOW 6-7K's return.

As far as clearing the Maricopa County foreclosure inventory, that well is far from dry.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by azjack

Some may end up believing the hype, and be utterly shocked by DOW 6-7K's return.

Count me in that group. I think a DJIA around 12K is possible by late summer.

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Count me in that group. I think a DJIA around 12K is possible by late summer.

Probably, but I think it will be just under. As for those sectors that are indicating they will be hiring next quarter include: manufacturing (good for Phoenix area companies like Honeywell, Intel, MD Helicopters, PharmaServices, and other medical, computer, tech manufacturers); wholesale/retail (a very good sign as we all know that tax revenue streams heavily depend on the wellness of this sector); information services, financial, and hospitality and leisure (tourism and convention business).

Health, Education, and Business/Professional services are expected to see a slight uptick and construction is expected to remain flat.

The only sector that may look to ease employment is government.

As for homes selling, if the trend continues will only mean one thing; less inventory...less inventory usually means rising prices especially since builders are increasing production ever so slowly and mainly by buying lots already plotted.

[azjack]

"Count me in that group"

You're on the list.

But seriously, regarding equities, I feel like the guy who sold his AZ shack a few days before Thanksgiving 2005 who tried to convince his cousin back then that maybe her 2,000 sq ft house in Surprise really was not intrinsically worth $300K. Or suggested to another relative to make hay while that sun was shining and unload his North Peoria McMansion. Hey, that was me. But what do I know.

[actinic]

Real estate is rebounding according the people in the real estate industry.
Employment looks better according to people in the job placement industy.

Now there's a surprise

How 'bout a little dose of reality:

Phoenix ranks 97th (Tucson 87th) out of 100 metro areas in 3 yr forecasted improvement in home prices.

America's Best Bang-For-The-Buck Cities - Forbes.com

Arizona may not see a job recovery til 2013:

AZ may not see jobs recovery until 2013 | www.azstarnet.com ® (http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/hourlyupdate/319854 - broken link)

By the way, it's looking more like a double dip recession, the next to happen late 2010.

Meredith Whitney: The government is “out of bullets” « naked capitalism

Tthey couldn't know better than the typical CD forum poster, could they? <gasp>

[las vegas drunk]

Originally Posted by actinic

Real estate is rebounding according the people in the real estate industry.
Employment looks better according to people in the job placement industy.

Now there's a surprise

How 'bout a little dose of reality:

Phoenix ranks 97th (Tucson 87th) out of 100 metro areas in 3 yr forecasted improvement in home prices.

America's Best Bang-For-The-Buck Cities - Forbes.com

Arizona may not see a job recovery til 2013:

AZ may not see jobs recovery until 2013 | www.azstarnet.com ® (http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/hourlyupdate/319854 - broken link)

By the way, it's looking more like a double dip recession, the next to happen late 2010.

Meredith Whitney: The government is “out of bullets” « naked capitalism

Tthey couldn't know better than the typical CD forum poster, could they? <gasp>

Well said.

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by actinic

Real estate is rebounding according the people in the real estate industry.
Employment looks better according to people in the job placement industy.

Now there's a surprise

How 'bout a little dose of reality:

Phoenix ranks 97th (Tucson 87th) out of 100 metro areas in 3 yr forecasted improvement in home prices.

America's Best Bang-For-The-Buck Cities - Forbes.com

Arizona may not see a job recovery til 2013:

AZ may not see jobs recovery until 2013 | www.azstarnet.com ® (http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/hourlyupdate/319854 - broken link)

By the way, it's looking more like a double dip recession, the next to happen late 2010.

Meredith Whitney: The government is “out of bullets” « naked capitalism

Tthey couldn't know better than the typical CD forum poster, could they? <gasp>

Well, actually, those jobs numbers were reached by asking employers if they were planning on hiring next quarter and NOT by the "job placement industry." Nowhere in those articles are "job placement" industries mentioned but firms that plan to up their employment numbers.

As for foreclosures and real estate market, again those numbers were reached by actual data available. Neither of these topics are compiled by how you've tried to dismiss them...

As for the "America's best bang for the buck," that looks at other factors besides rising value (which is occurring) and what is happening now. They thing the market in Arizona will fully recover by 2013; well wouldn't that mean that it is feasible that things are improving now? How how are they defining a full recovery? When home prices reach 2005 levels?

The double-dip recession is a column criticizing that prediction; and a NATIONAL prediction on top of that which already shows signs of unfounded indicators:
"I am not sure I buy Meredith Whitney’s assertion that the government is “out of bullets” in its quest to prop up the economy. It’s a matter of political will more than anything else."

[Wyoming Darrell]

I have to get into this conversation because I think I have something to add.
We came down here in February to see what the market was. We primarily checked in the Surprise area and found that there were several houses of the type we wanted, at around $150,000.
We went home and sold our home and small business. By the time we got everything done, it was the first week in October. We came down and found that the type house we wanted (three car garage and pool,single level) was now around $195,000. By the time that I came in first on offer, It was the last house like it on the MLS in Surprise, and we had to give $210,600.
Based only on my own experience the market is going up.