"Valley Home Sales Surge 70%" (Phoenix, Chandler: days on market, insurance, condos)

[sh9730]

Ok, this one got too off track for me for a bit, but now seems to be coming back. I posted the November ARMLS stats here on this forum about a week ago. Wont rehash all the numbers again, basically sales NUMBERS are flat to a little lower (common November occurence) month to month, but WAY UP year over year (as this original thread stated). Pricing is DOWN about 15% year over year for both median AND average. Pricing is basically flat to a slight upward trend on a month to month basis.

BUT, as I also noted, the median price for the entire ARMLS (still not sure if that is entire state or what?) was 130K in November. This is lower than the 150K in Nov last year, BUT is the SAME as the Jan 09 median, again 130K.

So, as Ponderosa stated, unless something pretty dramatic happens, I wont be surprised at all to see the year over year both median and average prices INCREASE when the Jan 2010 numbers are released in February.

Of course, what noone can know for certain is how the market will react after the artificial stimulus starts to get removed over the next 6 months. MY OWN BELIEF is that the supply (especially on the lower end of the market) is getting down enough that stability will be maintained, though I dont think any great appreciation will be seen in 2010.

And while I see unemployment starting to improve a little here and nationwide (smaller than anticipated jobless claims this morning was another indicator), I worry the people with ability to pay, but not willing to take the equity hit any longer, will still have a semi noticeable impact on continuing foreclosures.

All in all, again, I think the WORST is behind us, but the BEST is still a ways off.

I ll take my mood, and my take on the mood of the country, this Christmas over last Christmas any day!

[Phoenixxx]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Ok, this one got too off track for me for a bit, but now seems to be coming back. I posted the November ARMLS stats here on this forum about a week ago. Wont rehash all the numbers again, basically sales NUMBERS are flat to a little lower (common November occurence) month to month, but WAY UP year over year (as this original thread stated). Pricing is DOWN about 15% year over year for both median AND average. Pricing is basically flat to a slight upward trend on a month to month basis.

BUT, as I also noted, the median price for the entire ARMLS (still not sure if that is entire state or what?) was 130K in November. This is lower than the 150K in Nov last year, BUT is the SAME as the Jan 09 median, again 130K.

So, as Ponderosa stated, unless something pretty dramatic happens, I wont be surprised at all to see the year over year both median and average prices INCREASE when the Jan 2010 numbers are released in February.

Of course, what noone can know for certain is how the market will react after the artificial stimulus starts to get removed over the next 6 months. MY OWN BELIEF is that the supply (especially on the lower end of the market) is getting down enough that stability will be maintained, though I dont think any great appreciation will be seen in 2010.

And while I see unemployment starting to improve a little here and nationwide (smaller than anticipated jobless claims this morning was another indicator), I worry the people with ability to pay, but not willing to take the equity hit any longer, will still have a semi noticeable impact on continuing foreclosures.

All in all, again, I think the WORST is behind us, but the BEST is still a ways off.

I ll take my mood, and my take on the mood of the country, this Christmas over last Christmas any day!

Good post and I agree there isn't room to slide much further ON THE LOWER END. There are plenty of homes in the middle of market priced in the 400+ range that have plenty of room to continue downward, especially if there is no supply of higher paying jobs created.

My intentions weren't to make predictions. We are all just offering our opinions. My opinion is based on owning a brokerage and waking up day after day, year after year and actually living and breathing these numbers.

To bring it all back to the original article, I had posted the figures to show information the article left out. To illustrate how easy it is to make a statement about a "surge" of home sales that neglects to point out that the very same year also had the steepest avg price decline of any year prior.

Things are slowly adjusting for the better, sure. Are we at the worst? Who knows. I guess it depends on how much your home is valued at. I think the highest priced portion of the market still has some downward adjustments ahead. But the lowest end is about as far as it could go. (Just a guess, don't quote me on that in the future if they do go down more --- Anything is possible)

Depending on which segment you are living in, you are either at or near bottom riding in a straight line waiting for something to spark home values, or you are in the higher segment of the market with a more uncertain future.

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by Steve-o

In NV it was 1 in every 120 homes that were in foreclosure (nations worst), in AZ it was 1 in 185 (nations 4th worst).

Actually, that is a very OLD statistic, really old. Arizona is no longer in the top 10 for foreclosures; more recently it was the 12th spot and foreclosures have fallen even further off in Arizona...

And Ponderosa was right, over Phoenixxx, about median prices, inventory, and sales. The averages posted by Phoenixxx are not accurate and/or manipulated especially if those averages where for homes sold, the inventory, or overall market value (much of which does not add up.)

[cmist]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Actually, that is a very OLD statistic, really old. Arizona is no longer in the top 10 for foreclosures; more recently it was the 12th spot and foreclosures have fallen even further off in Arizona...

And Ponderosa was right, over Phoenixxx, about median prices, inventory, and sales. The averages posted by Phoenixxx are not accurate and/or manipulated especially if those averages where for homes sold, the inventory, or overall market value (much of which does not add up.)

Actually I sent him a DM and asked for the email. It has ARMLS logos all over it with the criteria in plain sight. Would you like to see it yourself, or do you prefer to spread lies about manipulation?

[Howard Roark]

I won't bite. Option ARM and ALT-A resets peak in 2011.

[Steve-o]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Actually, that is a very OLD statistic, really old. Arizona is no longer in the top 10 for foreclosures; more recently it was the 12th spot and foreclosures have fallen even further off in Arizona...

And Ponderosa was right, over Phoenixxx, about median prices, inventory, and sales. The averages posted by Phoenixxx are not accurate and/or manipulated especially if those averages where for homes sold, the inventory, or overall market value (much of which does not add up.)

That info I got was from 11/09, so its quite fresh, actually. Ill have to find the link later.

[Howard Roark]

Exactly. People are blinded by one starry-eyed statement minus the big picture fundamentals that point to more price drops in the next three years.

Rent prices at my luxury apartment will continue to fall. I look forward to signing another lease at the year 2000 prices next Fall in my luxury apartment.

Originally Posted by azjack

Yes, bubbles tend to rise, briefly. There is not much left when they go pop.


It find it incomprehensible that some actually declare a recovery in a sector on life support via government tax subsidies, FHA subprime substitute loans, and the central bank's purchase of $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities.

[Howard Roark]

KatrynS, in Post #25 you are spot on! You really did your homework. Your father has decades experience in real estate and that is what trumps the starry-eyed one-statistic blurb that will only trap a bunch more knifecatchers.

I'm not knocking Phoenix. I'm knocking cheerleading that does not account for economic fundamentals at the macro level.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

I for one appreciate Phoenixxx's approach. It's unbiased and refreshing. I'm not a fan of cheerleaders. I call that "commission breath" as another Realtor on this blog seems to do non-stop. In the end I'd buy a house from him or her. HINT Phoenixxx: Put your link on your personal info.

Re: the 50% off versus 100% off statement. It's all too common of a mistake. Some people seem to think that if something goes up 20% in price one year and down 20% the following year then you are at the same point. Work the numbers; it's not how it works.

I agree that the upper end stuff has more to go and the lower priced stuff is probably at or close to bottom. The real question is what will happen when interest rates go up (and they will) and the government stops subsidizing (and they will).

[Howard Roark]

I would not buy any real estate until interest rates go up above 8% again, because I'm a cash buyer. 5% rates are too low. 70% ownership rates of houses are too high. I am looking for an undershoot. The bubble has yet to burst and the cycle to high interest rates will return and finish off the burst.

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I for one appreciate Phoenixxx's approach. It's unbiased and refreshing. I'm not a fan of cheerleaders. I call that "commission breath" as another Realtor on this blog seems to do non-stop. In the end I'd buy a house from him or her. HINT Phoenixxx: Put your link on your personal info.

Re: the 50% off versus 100% off statement. It's all too common of a mistake. Some people seem to think that if something goes up 20% in price one year and down 20% the following year then you are at the same point. Work the numbers; it's not how it works.

I agree that the upper end stuff has more to go and the lower priced stuff is probably at or close to bottom. The real question is what will happen when interest rates go up (and they will) and the government stops subsidizing (and they will).