March ARMLS figures - Interesting (Phoenix, Surprise: days on market, short sales, foreclosures)

[sh9730]

So, its the 15th of the month again and the latest ARMLS sales figures are out (www.armls.com) . Some very interesting stats this month. As always I will post the total ARMLS figures and then Pinal County specifically. I do not post the Maricopa County specific figures, though they are available at the posted link.

ARMLS TOTAL

March 2010 total sales - 8969!
Feb 2010 total sales - 6594 - this is a HUGE month to month jump!
March 2009 total sales - 7636 - still a big jump for y-o-y.

As a side note the March 2008 total sales were just 4293!

March 2010 Median Sales Price - 128,000
Feb 2010 Median Sales Price - 125,000
March 2009 Median Sales Price - 119,900 - Not too bad y-o-y increase

BUT, the March 2008 median was still 210,000! So, the total # of sales is up massive amounts from two years ago, but the PRICE is WAY WAY down from that point (which is probably why the sales are up so much - duh!)

March 2010 Average Sales Price - 178,186
Feb 2010 Average Sales Price - 173,870
March 2009 Average Sales Price - 159,080 - Again not too bad y-o-y

But, as with the median, the March 2008 Average Sales Price was 293,300.

Total days on market seems to have hit bottom back at end of last year though in the low 90s, and is now back over 100 days in March.

Also, the total new listings has been going up and continued in March, and both the average and median LISTING prices have been going down and this also continued in March. This might be slightly misleading as the general tactic these days is to list all these short sales and foreclosures with a low price and then get bidding wars going. This would explain why listing prices have been going down, but sales prices have held steady or increased slightly of late.





PINAL County (which is of most interest to me personally)-

March 2010 SFR sales - 986
Feb 2010 SFR sales - 739 (of course Feb is has a few less days)
March 2009 SFR sales - 941

March 2010 SFR Median Price - 100,000
Feb 2010 SFR Median Price - 97,975
March 2009 SFR Median - 100,000

March 2010 SFR Average Sales Price - 115,582
Feb 2010 SFR Average Sales Price - 115,125
March 2009 SFR Average Sales Price - 114,003

So, year over year sales numbers in Pinal County are almost identical on all fronts - # of sales, average, and Median. (The differences are less than 1%). Pinal County figures havent moved up or down in any significant way in months now.

One thing though is that total listings is down from last year and pending sales are up from last year, more signs that inventory down here is finally starting to get sold.

Could all of this mean a bottom is finally forming?

Who knows? The big test will start now as the Tax Credit expires, the FED has stopped buying mortgage securities, and (supposedly) all of these resets and shadow inventory is supposed to start hitting the market.

On the other hand, employment does seem to be stabilizing, and the stock market has improved dramatically.

As always, Im not drawing conclusions - merely posting the information for comment and review.

[MotleyCrew]

Thanks for taking the time to post this information. Any good news is certainly welcome.

[Skywayy2001]

The bottom for most markets (below $500k) was last spring. That being said, the housing market is completely dependent upon Uncle Sam. A raise in interest rates and a variety of other economic factors would play havoc with the market....in a bad way.

[aoeu00]

The bottom of the market was last spring?! How's that?

Anyways, sadly, the interest rates can't go any lower.. either stay or go up. I can't imagine them raising the federal rates anytime soon. You never know though... they could "test" it by raising it bg 1/4 of a percent.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

Don't the rates have to raise especially with the government getting out of the business? Private investors may not invest with the low interest rates. They will want a greater return on their money. With the cost of borrowing money increasing, fewer buyers will jump into the market allowing for declining values in home prices. Also with the Government incentive disappearing this month that may also make for a decline in prices. I have seen people talking about a 10% to 18% decline in value between now and March of 2011. But then my crystal ball has not been working so well the last few years.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

Don't the rates have to raise especially with the government getting out of the business? Private investors may not invest with the low interest rates. They will want a greater return on their money. With the cost of borrowing money increasing, fewer buyers will jump into the market allowing for declining values in home prices. Also with the Government incentive disappearing this month that may also make for a decline in prices. I have seen people talking about a 10% to 18% decline in value between now and March of 2011. But then my crystal ball has not been working so well the last few years.

The much-ballyhooed rate jump did not happen. Rates went up a bit, but that was due to market forces across the spectrum of interest rates - a signal that the recovery is well under way. As rates rise along with prices, people will jump in the market because it will dawn on them that prices and rates are never going to be better than right now. Deflation with the expectation that prices will drop has been holding buyers back. When it turns to inflation, they will be fighting for a fleeting deal on an ever shrinking pool of houses. In contrast with the past couple of years, to wait will be to lose. JP Morgan predicts a housing SHORTAGE in 2011. Could look like 2006 all over again.

Jobs are critical. If the jobs don't materialize, all bets are off. My prediction is that by late this year, the economy will be creating 10,000-15,000 new jobs per day.

[aoeu00]

Housing shortage in 2011..... yeah, I buy that /spits on the ground

[Saradance]

Phoenix may be at / near the bottom, but I wouldn't expect it to move up or ever see the types of appreciation in the past. Maybe 1-2% a year? There simply isn't the strong economy to support rapid growth :\

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Saradance

Phoenix may be at / near the bottom, but I wouldn't expect it to move up or ever see the types of appreciation in the past. Maybe 1-2% a year? There simply isn't the strong economy to support rapid growth :\

Median went up 7 1/2% in the last year per the figures above. House prices have undershot and will go back up quickly as foreclosures go away - assuming recovery continues - to "par" and then track wage increases. That (wage coupling) is what always happens eventually.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

The much-ballyhooed rate jump did not happen. Rates went up a bit, but that was due to market forces across the spectrum of interest rates - a signal that the recovery is well under way. As rates rise along with prices, people will jump in the market because it will dawn on them that prices and rates are never going to be better than right now. Deflation with the expectation that prices will drop has been holding buyers back. When it turns to inflation, they will be fighting for a fleeting deal on an ever shrinking pool of houses. In contrast with the past couple of years, to wait will be to lose. JP Morgan predicts a housing SHORTAGE in 2011. Could look like 2006 all over again.

Jobs are critical. If the jobs don't materialize, all bets are off. My prediction is that by late this year, the economy will be creating 10,000-15,000 new jobs per day.

Isn't the rate jump going to happen though? The Government is still in the business but is supposed to get out of it and investors will be the people buying notes. Just what I have heard anyway and am in no way an expert on this kind of stuff. I only post what I read in the online news. lol