PGH: lowest out-migration rate among U.S. metros? (Pittsburgh, York: best cities, mortgages)

[BrianTH]

This is a preliminary result from Urbanophile, which is working with IRS migration tracking data:

[url=http://www.urbanophile.com/2010/11/14/are-people-really-fleeing-shrinking-cities/[/url]

Here are the lowest out-migration rates (per 1000):



So if Pittsburgh has the lowest rate of out-migration, why is net migration flat? There is only one possibility, which is that it has among the lowest rates of in-migration as well:



If this data holds up, it really turns some local conventional wisdom on its head (although some here probably already know better). To the extent Pittsburgh has a population problem, it is no longer that people leave. It is that not enough people come.

But perhaps that is changing--we shall see.

[bradjl2009]

Interesting. I know amongst my friends that not many of them really have a desire to leave after school. The problem is getting rid of old perceptions about the city to young people in the rest of the country and showing them that this city is nothing like what they have heard about. However I am surprised to see that New York has a lower in migration rate than any of the other cities on the graph.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

Interesting. I know amongst my friends that not many of them really have a desire to leave after school. The problem is getting rid of old perceptions about the city to young people in the rest of the country and showing them that this city is nothing like what they have heard about.

I think you are exactly right on the perception problem. On the plus side, assuming all this is correct, we aren't swimming upstream either, meaning that just a relatively small shift in national perceptions could result in a decent increase in net in-migration.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I think you are exactly right on the perception problem. On the plus side, assuming all this is correct, we aren't swimming upstream either, meaning that just a relatively small shift in national perceptions could result in a decent increase in net in-migration.

That perception shift is happening, too. President Obama personally chose Pittsburgh for a major summit last year. Numerous publications and special interest groups have listed Pittsburgh at or near the top of some very desirable rankings, including "America's Most Livable City", "Best Cities in Which to Raise a Child" and the "Best City to Relocate To", amongst many others. There are those, like me, who are "hyping" Pittsburgh to the extreme to all those around us before we move into the city, and in doing so we are encouraging those whom we leave behind to come visit us and to also fall in love with the city (and potentially move there). It will take a long time to fully eradicate the worst of the city's Rust Belt stereotypes, but year by year things will continue to improve on that front.

[Blackbeauty212]

We're also forgetting it the recession is playing a big part in people being less mobile right now....People are afraid to move, I want to get out of NYC and move home to the Burgh so bad, but I also love my job so I'm suck, others simply dont want to "Rock the Boat".......

If this was back in the Clinton days people would be moving all over the place.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by RestonRunner86

There are those, like me, who are "hyping" Pittsburgh to the extreme to all those around us before we move into the city, and in doing so we are encouraging those whom we leave behind to come visit us and to also fall in love with the city (and potentially move there).

I personally think that is key. The good press helps, but nothing can really substitute for word of mouth and personal experience.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Blackbeauty212

We're also forgetting it the recession is playing a big part in people being less mobile right now....People are afraid to move.

And some people are stuck in underwater mortgages, or just can't afford a move.

It will be interesting to see what happens as mobility picks up.

[beenhereandthere]

I love pittsburgh (even though that may be strong to say, considering I've only been there once).....however, one can't deny this rather embarassing piece of info...

Census: Pittsburgh region population drain slowing down - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

more folks dying, than being born....

[BrianTH]

I guess I don't see it as all that embarassing, at least not now. What happened is that during the steel bust, the people who left were disproportionately young, because people with seniority or in or near retirement were less likely to need to leave to find work. The result was a rump older population whose children were living elsewhere, and whose grandchildren were being born elsewhere, and that is how you get deaths outweighing births years later. But as discussed in that article, slowly but surely that situation is winding down, and Pittsburgh will eventually converge on a normal birth/death ratio.

Edit: By the way, as someone who arrived in 1993, it is probably a little easier for me to treat the steel bust as distant history. But still, the point is the cause is all in the past, even if the effect is still continuing.

[Gnutella]

Leaving in droves!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!