You think its bad for PAT now, it's about to get A LOT WORSE! (mortgage, tenant)

[gg]

Originally Posted by eschaton

This is idiocy.

If you allow the private sector to compete, what would happen would be:

1. The most profitable commuter lines would be swept up by private operators, who would offer lower fare than PAT.
2. Having lost the most profitable lines, PAT would go bankrupt
3. Pitt/CMU would then either develop their own private busses for students, or else the private bus companies would begin offering these routes.
   

Looks good! We can only hope. Maybe they can give up the drink tax? Of course we are still paying for the Johnstown Flood Tax, so I suspect we will keep that one in place. Unless we get someone in power that is anti big government and lowers costs. I don't think we will see that here though.

[CFP]

Originally Posted by Blackbeauty212

Keep in mind I'm talking about what we can work with now....Not pipe dreams that will never come to light anytime soon with the Politics we have in America now.

Here's a pipe dream: transform the useless "Village of East Side Plaza" back into its original purpose - a useful East Liberty Station with direct service to Penn Station, NYC.

http://i46.tinypic.com/34s2nq0.jpg

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by CFP

I don't believe that the typical commuter is going to give up his or her single occupancy car ride to work without some type of shock to the system. As far as most Americans are concerned having a self-directed vehicle for personal use is a God given right.

Americans have changed their preferred modes of transportation many times as new technologies have become available. Before we loved our cars, we loved our trains, and before that we loved our horses. I don't particularly see why this time would be different.

By the way, here is an interesting article about the very deliberate marketing campaign behind widespread adoption of the automobile:

Why America's Love Affair with Cars Is No Accident: Scientific American

Even the phrase "America's love affair with the automobile" was invented to help promote General Motors.

I think the upshot is that it is quite clear there is nothing inherent in American culture reflected in current automobile technology--it is just something most of us use out of necessity, with a little help from some well-funded marketing campaigns and a lot of help from systematic undermining of the alternatives.

[ML North]

Originally Posted by Aqua Teen Carl

Now that peak oil has passed this problem will not get better.

When? The newest formulation of "peak oil" which shows the peak occurring in the late twentieth century is based on calculations that ignore huge portions of proven reserves and assume that efficiencies and extraction technologies would would be totally static. Everything looks bad when you assume no future technological change; however, that assumption has nearly always been wrong.

Sure, oil is more expensive now, but the "peak oil" doomsday scenario is very unrealistic.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by CFP

Here's a pipe dream: transform useless the "Village of East Side Plaza" back into its original purpose - a useful East Liberty Station with direct service to Penn Station, NYC.

Although not an intercity train station, last I knew PAT still wanted to redevelop the "bus loop" area into a mixed-use Busway station.

[CFP]

Originally Posted by ML North

Sure, oil is more expensive now, but the "peak oil" doomsday scenario is very unrealistic.

"Peak Oil" is not a very useful term. The end of "Cheap Oil" more accurately describes the situation. They aren't drilling in deep water for kicks, you know.

[Aqua Teen Carl]

Originally Posted by ML North

When? The newest formulation of "peak oil" which shows the peak occurring in the late twentieth century is based on calculations that ignore huge portions of proven reserves and assume that efficiencies and extraction technologies would would be totally static. Everything looks bad when you assume no future technological change; however, that assumption has nearly always been wrong.

Sure, oil is more expensive now, but the "peak oil" doomsday scenario is very unrealistic.

The IEA came out and said peak oil had passed in 2006, I honestly haven't heard about the 20th century estimates.

[ML North]

Originally Posted by Aqua Teen Carl

The IEA came out and said peak oil had passed in 2006, I honestly haven't heard about the 20th century estimates.

I've seen dates from 1970 onward, but it's been forecast that the world is running out of oil since the railroad boom. World crude oil production was greater in 2011 than it was in 2006.

Anyway, the broader point is that I don't see any reason to worry that a lack of energy is going to bring the industrial world to a screeching halt. The problems with public transportation are mostly matters of policy, not energy.

EDIT: And the 2006 figure is for conventional crude oil extraction technologies applied to currently producing fields. Again, no technological change and no efficiency improvements -- assumptions which always produce very gloomy, though usually inaccurate, forecasts.

[CFP]

Originally Posted by ML North

Anyway, the broader point is that I don't see any reason to worry that a lack of energy is going to bring the industrial world to a screeching halt. The problems with public transportation are mostly matters of policy, not energy.

Indirectly it will have that effect. The modern, industrial world was built on cheap oil. You could work in the city and commute from the suburbs at virtually no cost. Think of all the shopping malls that were built on this premise.

Once the Oil Crisis hit in the 70's Americans started embracing debt as a way to deal with the fact that the motoring lifestyle was no longer cheap. Unfortunately, due to off-shoring and automation, incomes have not risen enough to service the debt sufficiently.

And that's what is going to bring the industrial world to a screeching halt - everyone is in debt up to their eyeballs (students, municipalities, homeowners, sovereign nations, etc.) and there is not enough real economic growth to finance the mountains of existing debt with new debt (or savings to pay them off entirely).

[BrianTH]

The U.S. household debt service and financial obligation ratios have come crashing down:

Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios