Understanding the City's age/population trends (Duquesne: crime, universities, living in)

[BrianTH]

Great post and graph from cityLAB:

cityLAB > burying the lede





What you are seeing there is the ongoing ripple effects of the steel bust layered on top of a growing interest in living in the City among young post-college adults layered on top of the general U.S. demographic trends.

Next up--will more of those young adults stay as they begin having children? It will be interesting to find out.

[jifie]

I think they will stay. I'm a young adult with a family and am seriously considering my move to Pgh. I think there used to be a huge stereotype of Pgh being a gritty steel mining town and not any place someone would want to be, but after doing all of my research I have found how up and coming Pgh really is now with the steel industry dying down. The major industries that draw the young professional crowd are starting to pop up and even saw Pgh at in the top 15 of top tech cities in the US list. All of the offerings of this city really cater to me and am excited to see where Pgh goes from here. But it definitely seems to be on the right upward track, which is a huge welcome change from where I grew up around Baltimore, which is just on the wrong track towards a downward spiral.

[WILWRadio]

A good trend here. Lot's of 20 somethings that will probably start families are moving into the area. That signals potential investment in new small businesses may be on the horizon as well.

It looks like the number of people in in and around my age bracket are probably moving away but I guess you have to take the good with the bad in this case. Where I live presently in a small town in MO everybody is leaving regardless of their age but especially the 20 somethings. They recognize the place is a backwards community with few signs of growth or changes that will result in positive growth for the future. I recognize this as well and won't be staying...

[pman]

Originally Posted by jifie

I think they will stay. I'm a young adult with a family and am seriously considering my move to Pgh. I think there used to be a huge stereotype of Pgh being a gritty steel mining town and not any place someone would want to be, but after doing all of my research I have found how up and coming Pgh really is now with the steel industry dying down. The major industries that draw the young professional crowd are starting to pop up and even saw Pgh at in the top 15 of top tech cities in the US list. All of the offerings of this city really cater to me and am excited to see where Pgh goes from here. But it definitely seems to be on the right upward track, which is a huge welcome change from where I grew up around Baltimore, which is just on the wrong track towards a downward spiral.

why is baltimore on a downward spiral? it appears as though the crime index was cut 37% between 2000-9...
http://www.city-data.com/city/Baltimore-Maryland.html

baltimore has always had more than its fair share of problems, or at least for some time, but that would seem like a good step in the right direction. just curious.

[Picksburg Stillers]

What does that chart look like adjusted for rising enrollment at Pitt, CMU, Duquesne, etc.? Seems like quite a few people who were college aged in 2000 actually left. There were 60,349 people aged 20-29 in 2000 and only about 38,000 people aged 30-39 in 2010.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Picksburg Stillers

What does that chart look like adjusted for rising enrollment at Pitt, CMU, Duquesne, etc.?

So most of 20-29 is past college age, and grad/professional enrollments are too small to explain much of that effect. Accordingly, increased university enrollments can't explain all of that increase in 20-29 population, although it will explain some.

Seems like quite a few people who were college aged in 2000 actually left. There were 60,349 people aged 20-29 in 2000 and only about 38,000 people aged 30-39 in 2010.

Typically a lot of people leave central cities as they enter the prime family-starting ages. Some of that is likely to happen over the next decade with this cohort of 20-29 people too, but the question is whether it happens to the same degree (although even a proportionate dropoff would still lead to more young families in the City).

[jifie]

Originally Posted by pman

why is baltimore on a downward spiral? it appears as though the crime index was cut 37% between 2000-9...
http://www.city-data.com/city/Baltimore-Maryland.html

baltimore has always had more than its fair share of problems, or at least for some time, but that would seem like a good step in the right direction. just curious.

Crime nationwide has gone down, every major city has cut its crime index, so that isnt the best indiciation of a city doing well. If your going to use crime, you'd have to compare it to other cities its size.

[Picksburg Stillers]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

So most of 20-29 is past college age, and grad/professional enrollments are too small to explain much of that effect. Accordingly, increased university enrollments can't explain all of that increase in 20-29 population, although it will explain some.

I think you're underestimating post graduate enrollment. CMU has about the same number of post grads as undergrads. At Pitt, post grads represent over a third of total enrollment. And at Duquense, post grads make up about 43% of total enrollment.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Picksburg Stillers

I think you're underestimating post graduate enrollment. CMU has about the same number of post grads as undergrads. At Pitt, post grads represent over a third of total enrollment. And at Duquense, post grads make up about 43% of total enrollment.

But I don't think the total enrollment increase over that time at all the city colleges and universities would add up to 12,000, and when you take out all the additional undergraduates that would have been under 20, you are going to leave a substantial increase still not explained.

[h_curtis]

The city has sure lost a lot of people. Wonder if it will be less than 300K someday? The actual city population is truly tiny compared to the booming suburbs.