Should we give up on ever returning to the Burgh? (Pittsburgh: loans, find a job)

[globalburgh]

I can verify the IRS numbers. From 1995-2005, well over 200,000 people from different MSAs relocated to the Pittsburgh MSA. The IRS data is used to identify "real" relocations, controlling for the student population flux (among other demographics). Many students are still dependents while in college and those who do file are sifted out of the count.

You might be surprised to learn that the DC MSA sends more migrants to the Pittsburgh MSA than any other MSA. IIRC, the average household income of those in-migrants has been over 90k per year. Surely, they are not students.

Regardless, the above numbers still indicate a VERY weak in-migration flow. Out-migration is average to below average, compared to other MSAs. This pattern is typical for MSAs in the Rust Belt region.

I wouldn't worry all that much how Pittsburgh compares to Atlanta, Houston, or San Diego. I would look at other MSAs who went through the same difficult adjustment to a new economy. Among those MSAs, are there a few doing much better than Pittsburgh is concerning in-migration and job creation?

[barneyg]

Originally Posted by globalburgh

Regardless, the above numbers still indicate a VERY weak in-migration flow. Out-migration is average to below average, compared to other MSAs. This pattern is typical for MSAs in the Rust Belt region.

I wouldn't worry all that much how Pittsburgh compares to Atlanta, Houston, or San Diego. I would look at other MSAs who went through the same difficult adjustment to a new economy. Among those MSAs, are there a few doing much better than Pittsburgh is concerning in-migration and job creation?

Here's something I calculated for another thread a few months ago. It's not a direct answer to your question as I only have net migration data, taken from the website Pittnurse70 linked to earlier in this thread. Basically, what this shows it that Pittsburgh did worse than Baltimore, St. Louis and Cincinnati, but better than Buffalo, Cleveland and Detroit in terms of net domestic migration, so it's kind of in the middle of the pack. I would expect Baltimore's numbers to also have been impacted by its proximity to DC, although DC's metro area itself also had negative net domestic migration.

Net domestic migration rate, 2001-06 (ie. net domestic migration/2000 metro area pop)
Phoenix 12.2
Dallas 6.3
Kansas City 1.0
Denver -0.3
Baltimore -0.6
Minneapolis -0.7
St. Louis -0.9
Washington DC -1.0
Cincinnati -1.5
Philadelphia -1.5
Pittsburgh -1.9
New Haven/Bridgeport -3.6
Buffalo -3.7
Cleveland -4.2
Boston -4.4
Detroit -4.7
Newark -5.8
New York City -11.3

[Katarina Witt]

The census bureau numbers are the "gold standard". Here is an example of why IRS numbers don't actually say who is living where: My brother in Pittsubrgh claimed his son, who lived in Colorado Springs, CO, with his mother as a dependent. According to what you are saying re: IRS numbers, the son is counted as living in Pittsburgh. That is crazy! He was attending public school in Colorado. Which school district should get the federal funds allotted per student? That is why all such distributions, etc, are based on census figures, which tell where people actually live, not where the head of their household lives. The census bureau figures are accurate.

The deaths > births only accounts for a part of the deficit in Pittsburgh. The rest, is obviously, more people moving away than moving in. The death > birth issue also shows there is a large elderly population in Pittsburgh.

[globalburgh]

Originally Posted by pittnurse70

The census bureau numbers are the "gold standard". Here is an example of why IRS numbers don't actually say who is living where: My brother in Pittsubrgh claimed his son, who lived in Colorado Springs, CO, with his mother as a dependent. According to what you are saying re: IRS numbers, the son is counted as living in Pittsburgh. That is crazy! He was attending public school in Colorado. Which school district should get the federal funds allotted per student? That is why all such distributions, etc, are based on census figures, which tell where people actually live, not where the head of their household lives. The census bureau figures are accurate.

The deaths > births only accounts for a part of the deficit in Pittsburgh. The rest, is obviously, more people moving away than moving in. The death > birth issue also shows there is a large elderly population in Pittsburgh.

IRS data can tell us plenty of useful things. Plus, we get the data yearly, not once every ten years.

Demographers are well aware of the pitfalls to using IRS data and they can account for most of the error. Regardless, the relocation of the primary filer is pretty straight forward.

If you like, you can read about the shortcomings of using IRS data for Pittsburgh migration here (page 7 of the report).

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by globalburgh

IRS data can tell us plenty of useful things. Plus, we get the data yearly, not once every ten years.

Demographers are well aware of the pitfalls to using IRS data and they can account for most of the error. Regardless, the relocation of the primary filer is pretty straight forward.
If you like, you can read about the shortcomings of using IRS data for Pittsburgh migration here (page 7 of the report).

Would agree with the above in bold. I will read the article when I have a chance. Thanks. The census bureau does do yearly estimates. In the link I posted, that is where the numbers come from.

[globalburgh]

Originally Posted by pittnurse70

The census bureau does do yearly estimates. In the link I posted, that is where the numbers come from.

Yes, the Census does yearly estimates, not counts. According to demographers, the IRS data are the most accurate yearly count of domestic migration.

The IRS count is quite credible. Like any data, we should take them with a grain of salt, but we shouldn't dismiss them out of hand.

[JoeP]

Annual Census data is far less reliable as it is essentially trended data. Obviously nothing is perfect, but the yearly census estimates trended wrong for Pittsburgh in the 90's. Look at '99 estimates and compare with the actual 2000 census.

[Katarina Witt]

Well, we should probably get back on track as far as the OP's concerns go. I read through all the posts. My husband works in IT also, and I think trying to start one's own IT consulting business in an economic climate such as Pittsburgh's, with the IT industry as it is now, would be difficult, at best. Especially coming in from the outside to do it. It could be a disaster, at worst.

I will go out on a limb, and say something controversail for a change (LOL)! I don't think stay-at-home moms, pharmacy students, etc, should be counseling this family on jobs. IT people know the IT world, health-care people know health care, pharmacy people know pharmacy. These folks probably know their chances of landing programming jobs, etc. The OP had a good question when she asked, if all these people are moving to Pgh to work, who is hiring them? Obviously, her husband is qualified and experienced, and he's having difficulty landing a job. That is not an uncommon experience.

I think Hopes' original suggestion, to call the place they are now living, home, is the better one. For many years, I did not feel Colorado was home. Unlike OP, I didn't feel Pittsburgh was home any more, either due to many reasons. The OP compared her present home unfavorably to Pittsburgh. I used to complain about Colorado's weird weather, the yupppies, etc. Too hot in summer; I liked the winter in Illinois better (the winters are similar temp-wise in Pgh and Denver), blah, blah. Then one day, I discovered we had made a real home for ourselves here, in spite of myself, so to speak. I embraced Colorado. Snow on Halloween? How fun! Snow at the high school graduation? Better than the 98 degree heat of the previous graduation. 70 degrees on New Year's Day? Be glad it's not snowing. 70 degrees on the 4th of July? Be glad it's not 100! Hint: it was more than 13 years later, too. Actually, it was about 15 yrs.

That does not think I believe this family should not follow their dream, if they can. But I don't think spending all one's time trying to get away from somewhere is good for a person's spirit, if you will.

[beemajabee]

pittnurse, you said:
I think Hopes' original suggestion, to call the place they are now living, home, is the better one.

That does not think I believe this family should not follow their dream, if they can. But I don't think spending all one's time trying to get away from somewhere is good for a person's spirit, if you will.

****
You struck a nerve with this one, for me. We are planning to relocate for several reasons, and I'm constantly questioning myself if it's not a 'grass is greener on the other side' delusion I'm suffering from.
We're leaving DC Metro because
1 we can't afford our bills (especially medical bills), cost of living and mortages here are ridiculous!
2 I don't like the summers, even though I'm not down South, NO VA is icky swampy and I'm never outside. I find that although even in SW PA it can get bad, it's not consistently as bad as NO VA.
3 I don't like the rat race, keeping up with the Jones'. Last time I came to SW PA I went days without seeing the latest model SUV or VW Jetta. People drive useful cars, not what looks newer than the neighbors'. In a way, the older, poorer areas are turning me on. The fact that I'm broke doesn't stand out like a sore thumb. lol
4 Closer to in-laws and husband's old friend (and MIL isn't getting any younger...)
5 if it pans out the money for the house here can pay off our debt and get a good house in SW PA!

But is it worth those changes for giving up the very diverse area and circle of friends I have here? Will I be able to find my tribe in the Pittsburgh area? Scary thoughts, aside from the jobsearch/school search/neighborhood search factor...

[goodgirl49]

I think that the reasons you give for relocating from DC to Pittsburgh make a lot of sense. Economics are certainly very important, and you seem ready to escape the rat race. As long as you aren't all alone, I don't think friends are as important, and really Pittsburgh isn't that far from DC so it's likely that you'll be able to get together with your DC friends periodically. Also the Internet makes it easier to stay in touch. Likely in time you will be able to make new friends in Pittsburgh but it will take time.

I say go for it if you and your husband can get decent jobs!