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Old 12-09-2011, 02:06 PM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,173,143 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTH View Post
As an aside, going forward U.S. Hispanics are increasingly going to be native-born, have higher educational-attainment, and be mixed-heritage. This was always expected but the Great Recession has accelerated those trends by leading to a sharp decrease in Hispanic immigration to the United States.

So it is true that eventually the population mix in SWPA is going to be a lot more Hispanic, but those Hispanics (and part-Hispanics) are not going to be the same as the Hispanics in places that experienced large amounts of direct Hispanic immigration in recent decades.
Seems unlikely that the Hispanic boom will be direct immigration. William Frey (demographer at Brookings) talked about it recently. Essentially, domestic migration of Hispanics is coming from the East and West. The steady march is most evident in Upstate NY. Hence the dramatic population boom in Schenectady (a run-down Rust Belt town if there ever was one).

If you want to see a preview of what is in store for Pittsburgh, then look at Worcester, MA. I like what I see.
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Old 12-09-2011, 02:17 PM
 
20,273 posts, read 29,870,312 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathmanMathman View Post
Yes, but there has been a trend of a return to the central city. Atlanta is up slightly from 2000 after decades of decline. Pittsburgh's, Buffalo's, and Cleveland's central cities are still bleeding people...Buffalo lost 10.7%. I would think these cities should have seen their city population stabilizing.
Again, all this depends in part on how boundaries are drawn in different central cities. There are parts of the City that gained population since 2000, other parts that lost, and if it had different boundaries the numbers would be somewhat different.

That said, I think there is very good evidence that the City of Pittsburgh is not "still bleeding people". In fact, here is labor force data for the City:

[Edit: apparently you can't link custom data tables from the BLS, so you'll have to take my word for this]

October 2011 labor force was 155878, up from 152382 in October 2007, a gain of about 3500. All the same reasoning above applies.

Note this isn't inconsistent with the Census data--the size of the City's labor force was trending down from 2001 to 2007, and was still lower in 2010 than it was in 2000. That's why it really helps not to assume a straight line in the City's population from 2000 to 2010--it was probably more like a ski jump.

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Old 12-09-2011, 02:20 PM
 
20,273 posts, read 29,870,312 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by globalburgh View Post
Seems unlikely that the Hispanic boom will be direct immigration.
Indeed. Direct immigrant flows from a low base tend to build very, very slowly (immigrants typically go where other immigrants from the same area have gone recently), and with the overall direct Hispanic flow to the U.S. declining, there is very little chance of Pittsburgh seeing a huge flow of direct Hispanic immigration.
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Old 12-09-2011, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Kittanning
4,635 posts, read 7,863,760 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by globalburgh View Post
Seems unlikely that the Hispanic boom will be direct immigration. William Frey (demographer at Brookings) talked about it recently. Essentially, domestic migration of Hispanics is coming from the East and West. The steady march is most evident in Upstate NY. Hence the dramatic population boom in Schenectady (a run-down Rust Belt town if there ever was one).
It's fascinating to look at the populations of cities like Reading and Allentown and see that 50% (or more) of the population is hispanic or latino.

What changes did this population shift bring to those cities, other than population increases?
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:06 PM
 
Location: Leesburg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alleghenyangel View Post
It's fascinating to look at the populations of cities like Reading and Allentown and see that 50% (or more) of the population is hispanic or latino.
Reading is a good example of the foolish weight given to population and migration numbers. Inmigration way up? Check. Population growing? Check. Reading is doing well!

No, Reading is not doing well. Population and migration data are poor metrics of economic health.
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:10 PM
gg
 
Location: Pittsburgh
21,175 posts, read 20,221,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by globalburgh View Post
The big picture is much more flattering for Pittsburgh. Let's add per capita income and educational attainment to the discussion. How about commercial and residential real estate? Migration and population are the two stats that have consistently dogged the Pittsburgh region and overshadowed the other indicators of strong economic development.

The bounce off the bottom happened 25-years ago.
Pittsburgh

Population: 311,647

Population Change 2000-2009: -22,056

Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -6.61%

Home Vacancy: 14.1%

Known as the “Steel City,” Pittsburgh was once the forge for the American industrial engine from the late 1800′s through the late 1970′s. At its peak, the city was home to more than 1,000 factories, including the mills owned by Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel, which by itself employed over 340,000 workers during World War II. As the American steel industry collapsed in the 19 80′s Pittsburgh suffered severe unemployment problems. In the past few decades, the city changed to a technology-based economy, but the population is still on the decline. Since 1950, Pittsburgh’s population has declined by more than 50%.



Read more: American Cities That Are Running Out Of People - 24/7 Wall St. American Cities That Are Running Out Of People - 24/7 Wall St.
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:15 PM
gg
 
Location: Pittsburgh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alleghenyangel View Post
The mass population losses of Detroit didn't seem to help their unemployment rate. Same goes for Youngstown, Wheeling, Johnstown, etc.

Also, the mass population losses of Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Youngstown, etc. didn't help their unemployment rates in the '80s and '90s.

So your theory that losing population causes a city's unemployment rate to go down might be a little off.
You are incorrect. The mass population loss which is clearly documented in Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Cleveland is what is helping the three cities score well in the unemployment numbers. The HUGE contraction of these cities and now a bounce off the bottom is hopefully going to make the cities grow. It is reversing itself and in a study like this one, the reverse effect will show up and make it look like Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh are doing great. I think it would be best to say, the three cities are rebounding off the MASSIVE documented losses of population that has been going on for decades.
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:16 PM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,173,143 times
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Originally Posted by h_curtis View Post
As the American steel industry collapsed in the 19 80′s Pittsburgh suffered severe unemployment problems.
And there is your bottom, soon to be 30 years in the past. If there was a bounce, it was during the Dot Com exuberance. Pittsburgh is well past that.
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:18 PM
gg
 
Location: Pittsburgh
21,175 posts, read 20,221,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by globalburgh View Post
And there is your bottom, soon to be 30 years in the past. If there was a bounce, it was during the Dot Com exuberance. Pittsburgh is well past that.
Um, Pittsburgh continued to lose population well beyond that. The bottom is when the populations turns. This might be the first year we see that, so last year hopefully was the bottom as far as population goes.
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:20 PM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,173,143 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by h_curtis View Post
You are incorrect. The mass population loss which is clearly documented in Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Cleveland is what is helping the three cities score well in the unemployment numbers. The HUGE contraction of these cities and now a bounce off the bottom is hopefully going to make the cities grow. It is reversing itself and in a study like this one, the reverse effect will show up and make it look like Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh are doing great. I think it would be best to say, the three cities are rebounding off the MASSIVE documented losses of population that has been going on for decades.
The workforce numbers prove you are incorrect.
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