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Old 12-09-2011, 03:23 PM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,173,804 times
Reputation: 235

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Quote:
Originally Posted by h_curtis View Post
Um, Pittsburgh continued to lose population well beyond that. The bottom is when the populations turns. This might be the first year we see that, so last year hopefully was the bottom as far as population goes.
Um, the bottom isn't when the population turns. It's a lagging indicator. The workforce has been growing for years:

Nullspace: Beyond the headline - labor force history

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Old 12-09-2011, 03:34 PM
 
20,273 posts, read 29,889,250 times
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We've established that recent migration trends have made it harder, not easier, for Pittsburgh to have relatively low unemployment.

So how did it happen anyway? The answer is we lost fewer jobs than average going down, and are gaining them back faster than average coming up. This report (PDF) goes into all this in some detail, including comparisons to averages and ranks:

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Fil...iles/38300.pdf

That report was through the second quarter of 2011, but things haven't really changed.

It is particularly worth paying attention to the employment chart from different recessions. We were ahead of where we were after the early 1980s and early 2000s recessions at the same point. That's very much not like most of the country, which instead look like this:



So that is a very, very different experience on the employment side. And again, as a result our unemployment rate would be even better compared to the national unemployment rate, if not for the job-seekers coming here.
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:36 PM
 
20,273 posts, read 29,889,250 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by globalburgh View Post
The workforce has been growing for years
Note a lot of that is increased labor force participation by women (although that leveled out in recent years).
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,173,804 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTH View Post
Note a lot of that is increased labor force participation by women (although that leveled out in recent years).
Yes, but also note the workforce growth prior to the bust of the early 1980s. It's a bad idea to talk about the link between unemployment and population change.
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:42 PM
gg
 
Location: Pittsburgh
21,227 posts, read 20,271,060 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by globalburgh View Post
Um, the bottom isn't when the population turns. It's a lagging indicator. The workforce has been growing for years..
The workforce is presented as a percentage of population. How about plugging in some of our old population numbers to compare size of workforce? Sure, due to the massive amount of people that left the area, our workforce as a percentage looks pretty good. Still we are not comparing apples to apples, because we have lost tons of people in this area for many decades. Sure a lagging indicator can be stated if you want to look to the future and disregard the past population loss, but if you want to compare Pittsburgh to itself many years ago, we have a very long way to go. Hence, don't kid yourself too much into making our city out to be something it isn't. The future looks bright and it is getting better around this old rust belt. Buffalo must be making a turn somehow as well. I thought they were still like Detroit, but I guess not.
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:46 PM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,173,804 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by h_curtis View Post
The workforce is presented as a percentage of population.


No, the workforce is presented in absolute terms (# of people available to work).
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Old 12-09-2011, 05:09 PM
gg
 
Location: Pittsburgh
21,227 posts, read 20,271,060 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by globalburgh View Post


No, the workforce is presented in absolute terms (# of people available to work).
which has to take into consideration of HOW MANY PEOPLE LIVE HERE. Goodness! Um workforce.

If you are going to try and see where Pittsburgh is going, You MUST look at history and what Pittsburgh WAS, which includes population/workforce. How hard is this issue really? You can pick and choose little bits and pieces to make things slant a certain way, but for an overall picture you need to look much deeper.

If you want to think it is super brisk in Buffalo great.
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Old 12-09-2011, 08:52 PM
 
Location: Upper St. Clair
659 posts, read 1,039,705 times
Reputation: 354
curtis...you lost me! what in the world are you talking about???
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