Zillow predicts flat home values in PGH in 2012 (Pittsburgh, Washington: real estate, rent)

[BrianTH]

Here is their release:

Home Value Declines Pick Up in Fourth Quarter, But Zillow Forecasts Smaller Declines in 2012 | Zillow Real Estate Research

They are predicting a -0.2% change in Pittsburgh home values, which is essentially flat. I think that may be a little conservative, but it would still be good enough to put Pittsburgh well above average among the Top 25 metros.

Philly they are predicting at -1.9%, which is right at the median. Cleveland is at -5.5%, which is not very good (it puts them in the bottom 4). The worst prediction is for Atlanta, which they have at -8.5%.

All this comes with a great deal of uncertainty, but the bottom line is that combined with our relatively good unemployment rate, predictions like this should help us continue to attract new people and more investment.

[Caladium]

Great news for the people on this forum who are buying a house this year. SCR, now that you have your new job, you might just have that house by this summer.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by Caladium

Great news for the people on this forum who are buying a house this year. SCR, now that you have your new job, you might just have that house by this summer.

Thanks, Caladium. I actually plan to buy next year after the reassessment debacle cools down. I'm also not opposed to living with my partner here in Polish Hill long-term until a home we both like comes on the market in this particular neighborhood. Working both jobs and splitting rent for $350/month each will give me ample savings for a down payment over the course of the next year.

[Caladium]

LOL, well considering how many houses you've fallen in love with in the past year, I can't imagine that would take too long. Once you're able to buy a house, I'd go ahead and take the plunge. Do your homework on the reassessments so you can make a fair prediction--but remember that assessments are always going to be changing so if you wait for them to be written in stone you'll never own a house.

[PeterRabbit]

Property taxes outpace appreciation. When was our last boom year?

[gg]

Originally Posted by PeterRabbit

Property taxes outpace appreciation. When was our last boom year?

Before my lifetime.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Caladium

Great news for the people on this forum who are buying a house this year. SCR, now that you have your new job, you might just have that house by this summer.

I hesitate to note this, but of course that is for the whole metro area. The more desirable and/or gentrifying areas will likely see at least some appreciation.

I am by no means suggesting people should rush into anything to try to beat that appreciation, but the super-bargains in the core area that were available 15, 10, or even 5 years ago are gradually disappearing, and I expect that process to continue this year.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I hesitate to note this, but of course that is for the whole metro area. The more desirable and/or gentrifying areas will likely see at least some appreciation.

I am by no means suggesting people should rush into anything to try to beat that appreciation, but the super-bargains in the core area that were available 15, 10, or even 5 years ago are gradually disappearing, and I expect that process to continue this year.

I sense that housing prices will increase in Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties, and decrease in all the rest.

[bradjl2009]

I feel like a price change of -0.2% for 2012 in Pittsburgh seems a little too conservative considering how well the housing market has been this entire time and the fact the housing market should pick up steam throughout this year too.

[BrianTH]

All the home prices indices are a bit different, and I'm not sure how their prediction model works, but I would in fact expect the universe of homes actually selling (they include all homes regardless of which are selling) to show some increase in prices this year.