How much longer will the East End stay affordable? (Pittsburgh: section 8, crime)

[BrianTH]

There will definitely still be more affordable fringe and urban pioneer options for quite a while yet.

[Hopes]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

In the early/mid 1990s, I'd say Friendship was more student-ghetto than ghetto-ghetto.

I lived in Friendship in the 80s. It wasn't any type of ghetto whatsoever.

[Hopes]

Originally Posted by GeneW

I lived in Friendship in the nineties and parts of it were still pretty rough at that point, especially if you lived closer to Penn Avenue. There was a fair amount of gun violence and murders and a lot of prostitution. The theft was pretty out of control too, I couldn't leave anything in my yard on on my porch or in my car without it getting stolen instantly. From my point of view, the area has changed hugely in the last 10 - 15 years.

All that has changed is the perception of Garfield improving due to gentrification. But the thefts and violence hasn't changed. The perception is all PR. My girlfriend recently sold a house on Penn Avenue because it is still too dangerous for her liking and she's not a timid soul. But the Garfield influence never made Friendship itself a dangerous place to live. Theft was the main problem (my car was stolen in Friendship and found in Garfield) and that hasn't changed today either.

[BrianTH]

From 2002 to 2011, Part One crimes in Garfield went from 356 to 186. Robberies went from 31 to 21, thefts went from 135 to 66, and motor vehicle thefts went from 48 to 12. Violent crimes (homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) went from 109 to 51.

All this is based on comparing this:

Part One: Pittsburgh neighborhood crime statistics

and this:

http://apps.pittsburghpa.gov/pghbop/...port_final.pdf

[Hopes]

It might have improved but the crime that remains makes it difficult to live there. It's a small area so 51 violent crimes in a year is still high.

[selltheburgh]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Wow, that's a total gut. Check it out on Google Street View. I can only tell it's the same house due to the window openings.

That said, there are some head-scratchers here. Why did they cover it in siding when it was apparently serviceable blond brick? Why the heck would you put carpeting in a house you're selling for nearly $200,000? The finishes look cheap contemporary, yet they're not selling it at an affordable price - probably because they sunk so much into making it structurally sound again. I hope our resident East Liberty real estate guy can chime in, but I can't see getting a price near what they are asking.

Your questions about the interior finishes are my guess as to why it hasn't sold. Same with the glass lofts a block down the hill. If people are paying those prices, they want quality fixtures and finishes.

I believe that they used siding because the brick was in such bad shape and it makes it easier to insulate on the outside. I remember that place being in horrible condition just a few years ago and later wrapped with tyvek and siding.

The comment by a previous poster predicting Stanton Heights going down hill is asinine. It is a very stable residential neighborhood. The prices have gone up a lot in the last 10 years. They probably won't increase at that rate, but the houses are solid, the yards are a good space, the location is convenient if you are fine with driving 1-3 miles in any direction and it is quiet and filled with city workers and cops.


Regarding the East End being or not being affordable in the future depends on a few things:

1. What your definition of affordable is. When I got married, a few of my friends and my wife's friends drove into Highland Park to meet us at our house. They drove past the mansions on Highland and ended up at our large brick home on a side street. They were like "wow, we didn't realize you guys were millionaires." "Uh, No. we live in Pittsburgh." Our house was less than $30 per sq ft when we bought it. Over 4 years time we put about 100k into renovating it and we were still less than $70/sq ft all in for a finished house on a great street in Highland Park. They were coming from Brooklyn and LA, where prices are $321 and $270 per square foot. A finished house in the 600k range in Shadyside is still way below that. The cost to build a new home ranges from $80-110 per sq ft not counting buying the lot. People are definitely paying a lot per sq ft in Lawrenceville and the South Side.

2. Interest rates remaining low. If rates skyrocket, affordability goes down. At the same time, prices could go down if this happens, but monthly payments would be the same. Rates were around 6% before the 2008 crash. a $150,000 house has a P&I payment of $899/mo at 6% over 30 years. For $898 today your P&I payment at 3.5% over 30 years allows you to afford a $200,000. This allows buyers to afford more but also causes prices to increase (at least in Pgh).

[Aqua Teen Carl]

$700 a month for a 1 bedroom in Polish Hill?

Man what we charge for rent in the South Hills is insanely cheap in comparison.

[selltheburgh]

Also, that house on N Fairmout has a few unique things about it:

1. It was redone by PHDC (wing of the URA) and BGC.
2. The buyer has to occupy it.
3. It has special financing for moderate income buyers.
4. It is 2 units (makes it harder to appraise because nice 2 unit properties don't turn over very often).
5. It probably cost them 200k to renovate this place.

There was a phase with 4 or 5 others like it on the first block of N Fairmount 2 or 3 years ago. They all sold to owner occupants.

[BrianTH]

Garfield's 2010 population was 3675. That makes Part One crime about 5.1 per 100 people, violent crime about 1.4 per 100 people.

That's still a bit high by current East End standards. Still, it is lower than where neighborhoods like Bloomfield, Friendship, and Shadyside were in 2002.

[Hopes]

Admittedly, it's hard to like Garfield after police found my stripped car sitting on cinder blocks there.

They stole my umbrella too!

For perspective, I lived in Manchester and nothing was stolen from me.

I've lived MANY places. Garfield was the only place where I was the victim of a crime.