Recession over in Pittsburgh (Houston: school, wage, living in)

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by track2514

Pittsburgh's workforce aging faster than the rest - Pittsburgh Business Times

The report in that article is talking about changes from 2000 to 2010, and again it is very much driven by demographics:

http://www.trwib.org/admin/uploads/W...rt-9-28-12.pdf

Also, if you look at what they say about age distribution by industry, and then look at recent job growth, it becomes apparent the lion's share of new job creation in the Pittsburgh area is in industries with relatively young workforces.

It is not a positive thing that Pittsburgh has a very old workforce and young professionals are leaving the area.

I really don't think the latter is currently true on a net basis, just the opposite, and nothing you have cited so far indicates otherwise.

[eschaton]

This link from last summer seems appropriate. I see Brian commented.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Honestly, I get the opposite conclusion from this. The article says pretty strongly that local young workers aren't well-educated enough to take the jobs of senior workers. And indeed, young professionals in the Pittsburgh region seem to be disproportionally transplants from elsewhere. That's not a brain drain - that's a brain...um...concentration.

I am honestly not sure how you can come to this conclusion because there are several sources that demonstrate Pittsburgh as a highly educated labor force. The source below is a few years old, but demonstrates that Pittsburgh has one of the most highly educated workforces in the country. It is amazing to me that only 4 major U.S. cities have a more educated workforce aged 25-34 than Pittsburgh.

http://www.ucsur.pitt.edu/files/peq/peq_2010-03.pdf

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

T
I really don't think the latter is currently true on a net basis, just the opposite, and nothing you have cited so far indicates otherwise.

This is simple, how many college graduates are there in the Pittsburgh metro region annually? What percentage do they makeup of the workforce?

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by track2514

Yes I trust Pitt's projections more than yours

It isn't a matter of "trust", and I think many people at Pitt would be happy to admit that projections can in fact be wrong. In any event, projections are not reports on what actually is happening.

and the numbers are out there from multiple sources that show the still relevant Pittsburgh "Brain Drain."

Well, so far you have cited a bunch of different things, but none of them show there is currently a net Pittsburgh "Brain Drain".

By the way, most of us here are familiar with this article, Educational Attainment in the Pittsburgh Regional Workforce, from your trusted source:

http://www.ucsur.pitt.edu/files/peq/peq_2010-03.pdf

It is pretty hard to square that data with a "brain drain" hypothesis, but you are welcome to keep trying.

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by track2514

This is simple, how many college graduates are there in the Pittsburgh metro region annually? What percentage do they makeup of the workforce?

The link in eschaton's prior post illustrates by age group exactly the percentage of college graduates by age group and shows how the younger cohorts in Pittsburgh are more educated than the national average.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by track2514

This is simple, how many college graduates are there in the Pittsburgh metro region annually? What percentage do they makeup of the workforce?

Well, it is certainly true that some people attend college or graduate school in the area, then leave the region. And because some people come here from outside of the region for that purpose (to get an education), you will see as a result of this process some less-educated younger people arriving, and some more-educated slightly older people leaving. And this is happening every year as people are entering and leaving the relevant institutions of higher education.

But that doesn't imply there is actually a net loss of educated young people over time as a result of this process. Indeed, the data suggests the opposite: through a combination of some people getting a higher education in the region and staying, and other people with higher educations migrating into the region, the educational attainment of our younger cohorts has been increasing.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by track2514

I am honestly not sure how you can come to this conclusion because there are several sources that demonstrate Pittsburgh as a highly educated labor force. The source below is a few years old, but demonstrates that Pittsburgh has one of the most highly educated workforces in the country. It is amazing to me that only 4 major U.S. cities have a more educated workforce aged 25-34 than Pittsburgh.

http://www.ucsur.pitt.edu/files/peq/peq_2010-03.pdf

A few quotes from the Pittsburgh Business Times article

As for the young workers that are available, their skills don’t match the open positions listed by Pittsburgh companies, the data shows.

...

With a growing need for technical skills, the Three Rivers Workforce Investment Board recommends a push by K-12 schools and career training centers to familiarize and recruit students for careers in these industries. It also urges the business community to get involved with training institutions to design curricula that would prepare students for such jobs.

Granted, they seem to be talking more about skilled blue-collar jobs than the "creative class" type positions. But the same dynamic seems to exist even with these in some sectors (like Marcellus Shale jobs), where out-of-state transplants, rather than native sons and daughters, take the positions.

Anyway, I'm still trying to square your argument, which seems to be.

1. Pittsburgh's young people are very highly educated.
2. Those highly educated folks move away because they can't find jobs.

If it were actually hard to find entry-level professional jobs, the percentage of 25-34 year olds with a college degree wouldn't be 9.4% higher than the national average. They might hang around for a few years and wait tables or something while they're playing in a local band, but sooner or later, they're going to move elsewhere if they can't find a real job. Unless elsewhere is worse than here of course.

The majority of CMU undergrads and grad students leave Pittsburgh. So what? Most of them aren't from here anyway. I'd bet you the majority of Harvard grads leave Boston as well. it says more about the national draw of the school than anything. While Pittsburgh could maybe keep a bit more of these people, it's never going to keep all of them. And I highly doubt that mostly-unemployed PHD students are a large enough cohort to explain the bulge in college attainment at the young adult level.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by track2514

I am honestly not sure how you can come to this conclusion because there are several sources that demonstrate Pittsburgh as a highly educated labor force. The source below is a few years old, but demonstrates that Pittsburgh has one of the most highly educated workforces in the country. It is amazing to me that only 4 major U.S. cities have a more educated workforce aged 25-34 than Pittsburgh.

But how could that be happening if Pittsburgh was experiencing "brain drain"? If young professionals were leaving on a net basis as you have asserted, the remaining young work force should be getting less and less educated, not more and more educated.

[sealie]

There are some cities in the country where it's hard for a new college grad (even one with an in-demand major) to find an entry level position, but after they have 2-5 years of experience, they magically become useful and are heavily recruited to move back. Generally your smaller cities, like Des Moines, after the kids have had a chance to become jaded by Chicago and want a house and a baby. If Pittsburgh is such a city, it won't show up in those numbers, and you'd both be right - the new grads leave for greener pastures but young people generally would be recruited heavily around age 25.