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Many of the people who posted in this thread are transplants or not even Pittsburghers. And Selltheburgh has a serious vested interest in making money off of high property values in the future.
I have no problem saying that I'm leery of too much population growth. If it's steady and slow and doesn't get out of hand, that's fine. I do fear property values rising. I don't care if Pittsburgh is still a bargain compared to NYC or San Fran. One of the things that makes Pittsburgh a great place to live is the housing prices. It's the only factor that contributes to our low cost of living. I'm not thinking of myself---I'll have a windfall for retirement if my house appreciates value to the sky. I'm thinking of our kids. Everyone's kids. I want them to experience the same benefit of a low cost of living. It provides security. Difficult times, like a slow economy, can be easily weathered when housing is affordable.
Everyone says just the popular neighborhoods will increase dramatically in price. That's not true. People who can't afford it will start looking at less popular places. Maybe those places won't reach sky high value, but the higher prices will close out people who would normally live there. I already have some divorced friends who are raising their children in some very run down areas in bad school districts because that's all they can afford. Rent is getting out of hand in comparison to salaries here. 15 years ago, they could have afforded to be in fairly decent area with an average school district. If salaries catch up, than it will no longer be an issue, but I don't see Pittsburgh employers acknowledging in the near future that the cost of living is rising.
Another great thing about living in Pittsburgh is the fast commutes. Our road system isn't designed to handle heavy traffic. I see more and more out of state plates. Last week, I was sitting at an intersection light and every car around me was from out of state----New Hampshire, New York, Wisconsin, Illinois, etc. None of the cars were Pennsylvania. At least they know how to drive. I wouldn't mind giving up the fast commute for more small businesses opening in all of the vacant storefronts. I'm not sure how that's going to happen since commercial property owners think rent needs to be super high as soon as a neighborhood gets some interest. High rent is why the hypothetical hardware store and the trendy yogurt shop Caladium mentioned doesn't stay open. On the flip side, the new population is probably more likely to stop at these new businesses than Pittsburghers who are stuck in their shopping routine ruts.
Difficult times, like a slow economy, can be easily weathered when housing is affordable.
Great post, especially the sentence above. Pittsburgh weathered the recession better than most cities and that's worth appreciating. IMO being "non-trendy" was a major factor in why it weathered the storm so well--not only the low cost of housing but also traits like loyalty to local stores and the general sense of frugality that comes about when residents have been in a city for decades.
As a proponent of historic preservation I foresee the current upswing in population to be occurring at the ideal time to save the fate of many older yet architecturally-significant vacant buildings that may have otherwise seen demolition if left to sit and deteriorate any further.
I really have mixed feelings about this. I moved to the East End in 2010. At the time I was paying $550/month for a gorgeous 1-BR "loft-styled" apartment with interior exposed brick, hardwood flooring, high celings, and a great deal of character. Some in the neighborhood said that was "a tad high" at the time in terms of price, but I saw that as being a bargain-basement price after paying well over $1,000/month for a dump in NoVA. I now pay $700/month for another unit in the same rowhome. This unit has far less character or appeal and is in dire need of renovation, which is why we can't wait to buy our own home and get out of dodge. Up the hill there are other 1-BR units that have an even smaller square footage than our current place, yet they are going for $800/month-$900/month. How much higher will these rents climb if they've already climbed this significantly in just a few years? I know that's not nearly as expensive as 1-BR units in DC, SF, NYC, Boston, etc.; however, we're not supposed to have comparable cost-of-living ratios to those cities anyways because we're much smaller and host employers that pay far lower salaries. Our peer cities are Cleveland, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Louisville, Indianapolis, Columbus, Rochester, St. Louis, etc., and a cursory review of CraigsList seems to indicate we're now the most expensive city for renting amongst our peers, despite employers here not offering higher salaries, overall, than what are offered in those cities. I DO foresee a "bubble" occuring here if these rents continue to rise at a faster rate than salaries. Entry-level home prices in the East End have largely risen above the means of most first-time home-buyers. Homes that may have sold for just $70,000 in Bloomfield or Polish Hill only several years ago are now selling for $120,000.
With that being said it's a mixed blessing. Yes, the East End will eventually be home only to the upper-middle-class and affluent if current trends continue, but that means the middle-class will pioneer their way into the West End, South Hills, and North Side, all of which offer affordable homes in "dicey" neighborhoods that need a lot of love and attention. We've really been circling East Deutschtown as our likely neighborhood to purchase our first home within, and we really like the potential it has to be salvaged prior to more of its vacant housing stock being cleared for more urban prairie. We also really like Elliott, Brightwood (Marshall-Shadeland?), and Troy Hill. If younger people being priced out of buying in the East End means that the rest of the city will start to rapidly improve as we all buy in other areas instead, then I'm all for it! With that being said not every neighborhood in this city needs a Starbucks, Whole Foods, vegan brunch hangout, edible lingerie store, pantomiming drum circles, and pet tutu boutique on every corner to successfully revitalize itself (pointing fingers at the East End here). Some of us just want the basics---laundromat; convenience store and/or market/deli; park/playground; pizza joint; etc.---nothing fancy. Troy Hill is a fine example of having a useful and non-trendy business district, which is part of why we're so drawn to it. Ditto East Deutschtown (being so close to the useful business district of West Deutschtown). Our East End neighborhood houses just the opposite---businesses that are "trendy" yet don't offer anything for day-to-day needs of residents. We've talked to other young East Enders who feel the same way we do, and hopefully these other "regular" and "real" neighborhoods will receive a shot in the arm as we all move into them, restore their homes, and then appreciate the business districts for what they offer instead of what "trendy" things they lack.
While Pittsburgh "officially" declined again from 2000 to 2010 I'm inclined to think the population grew from 2007- or 2008-2010, but that growth was not strong enough to offset the loss from 2000-2007 or -2008. Estimates have shown the city has gained nearly 3,000 residents since 2010.
I tend to think that the growth accelerated in 2012 because:
a.) Our unemployment rate mushroomed over the past year as many more job-seeking migrants moved here than new jobs could be created for them;
b.) U-Haul released a report indicating that Pittsburgh was the nation's fastest-growing city in 2012 based upon the number of U-Haul trucks that were rented elsewhere and left here (indicating the renters didn't return them to other cities to relocate elsewhere).
c.) I haven't seen as many out-of-state license plates here ever. Counting the Alaska, Hawaii, and U.S. Diplomat plates I saw in the past few weeks I've now seen every U.S. state's license plate here, along with more than half of the Canadian provinces. That's comparable to when I lived near DC, another very transient area, and saw a similar Long Island Iced Tea of license plates.
Some major concerns I have about even modest population growth in the coming years?
1.) We currently have a Republican governor who is not attuned to the infrastructural needs of urban PA, namely mass transit, as he instead panders to the city-loathing rural constituents who largely support him based upon partisan lines. As the city's population grows (and as jobs continue to move OUT of the city, ironically) we're going to see traffic congestion woes worsen considerably in the coming years while funding won't be released from Harrisburg to help offset it with new transit options. A lot of people move OUT of places like Northern Virginia due to the terrible traffic congestion and corresponding lack of decent transit amenities, all resulting from a few decades of mishandled growth. I don't want Pittsburgh to suffer the same fate if our population growth accelerates in the coming years.
2.) "Job sprawl": As more people move into the area's urban core, rental prices not only for housing but also office space will rise. Downtown companies and/or companies scouring the area for new locations will balk at the notion of paying a hefty premium in monthly rent to lease space in an office tower Downtown to be near transit and to have heightened corporate visibility and will instead move to "campus" locations in suburban office parks that aren't served by mass transit and that are far-flung from most of their prospective younger newer hires who largely prefer urban living. This will create an uptick in "reverse-commuting" that will soon create congestion coming into and OUT of the city at all hours of the day. 50% of Downtown workers currently commute via mass transit. 100% of workers in a suburban office park will have to commute by personal vehicle. ~100,000 people work Downtown. Let's presume U.S. Steel WILL indeed leave the city in a few years in favor of a new suburban campus near the airport. I believe it has around 2,000 employees Downtown. If roughly half of them currently commute by transit, then U.S. Steel's Downtown presence accounts for 1,000 people driving into Downtown on a daily basis. Once they relocate ALL 2,000 employees will have to drive themselves to work, forcing an additional 1,000 cars on our roads. As other companies follow suit and leave Downtown that will be thousands of more vehicles on the Parkway West and Parkway East in the coming years commuting to suburban office parks. The other day it took me nearly 40 minutes just to drive from Polish Hill to the 40th Street Bridge in NEIGHBORING Lawrenceville due to the intense congestion. If "job sprawl" continues to worsen in this country, and especially Pittsburgh, then we'll be faced with epic traffic jams in the coming years all over the metro area.
3.) Sluggish local economy: While we impressed the nation during the Great Recession at how resilient we were we also haven't done a very good job at job creation since it ended. As I referenced above our job growth was the most sluggish in the nation over the past year, and our unemployment rate spiked as a result of those job-seeking people who were "impressed" by our economy during the Recession continuing to move here while new jobs were drying up. We're by no means in a bind, but if job creation locally doesn't start to pick up while people CONTINUE moving here looking for work we'll quickly become the next Portland, OR---a boomtown of unemployed and/or underemployed hippies.
Even with our rising prices, I don't think that they are going to rise at the same rate in the future. I think that they finally caught up to where they should have been had we not lost half of our population 30 some years ago. I'm doubting that prices are going to go up another 50% in the next 15 years. You can still buy a 3 BR, 2 Bath house in Pittsburgh's most expensive neighborhoods (Sq Hill / Shadyside) for under 400k. Yes, that's a ton of money, but compared to most other cities, it really isn't.
Are the days of being able to buy a house for the same price as a used car passed us? Likely, yes.
I wouldn't be surprised if prices stagnate or even dip a bit in 5-10 years after a new administration comes into office and interest rates rise above 6 or 7%...Even if we have an increase in population.
Also, if we really do have a population boom, which I doubt, then people will repopulate other areas outside of the East End that may otherwise decline or that already have started to. I'm not talking about Braddock which is decimated, but areas that are still teetering between being stable or in major decline. It would be nice to see areas like Swissvale, Verona, Sharpsburg, Carrick, Beechview, Obs Hill, etc reach something closer to their full potential.
Last edited by selltheburgh; 04-30-2013 at 07:20 AM..
Reason: typed "their" twice
Even with our rising prices, I don't think that they are going to rise at the same rate in the future. I think that they finally caught up to where they should have been had we not lost half of our population 30 some years ago.
We never gained that population back though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by selltheburgh
I'm doubting that prices are going to go up another 50% in the next 15 years.
I bet they will. My property value more than tripled in the past 20 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by selltheburgh
You can still buy a 3 BR, 2 Bath house in Pittsburgh's most expensive neighborhoods (Sq Hill / Shadyside) for under 400k. Yes, that's a ton of money, but compared to most other cities, it really isn't.
Other cities are irrelevant, and Pittsburgh salaries haven't increased enough to off-set the property value increases. What people are missing is Pittsburgh is losing its best kept secret---a great, safe city that had extremely affordable housing. Just because other areas of the country are outrageously unaffordable doesn't mean that Pittsburgh isn't losing something awesome.
Quote:
Originally Posted by selltheburgh
Also, if we really do have a population boom, which I doubt, then people will repopulate other areas outside of the East End that may otherwise decline or that already have started to. I'm not talking about Braddock which is decimated, but areas that are still teetering between being stable or in major decline. It would be nice to see areas like Swissvale, Verona, Sharpsburg, Carrick, Beechview, Obs Hill, etc reach their something closer to their full potential.
You're missing the fact that the people who live in those areas have housing they can afford. Where are they going to go?
Many of the people who posted in this thread are transplants or not even Pittsburghers. And Selltheburgh has a serious vested interest in making money off of high property values in the future.
I have no problem saying that I'm leery of too much population growth. If it's steady and slow and doesn't get out of hand, that's fine. I do fear property values rising. I don't care if Pittsburgh is still a bargain compared to NYC or San Fran. One of the things that makes Pittsburgh a great place to live is the housing prices. It's the only factor that contributes to our low cost of living. I'm not thinking of myself---I'll have a windfall for retirement if my house appreciates value to the sky. I'm thinking of our kids. Everyone's kids. I want them to experience the same benefit of a low cost of living. It provides security. Difficult times, like a slow economy, can be easily weathered when housing is affordable.
Everyone says just the popular neighborhoods will increase dramatically in price. That's not true. People who can't afford it will start looking at less popular places. Maybe those places won't reach sky high value, but the higher prices will close out people who would normally live there. I already have some divorced friends who are raising their children in some very run down areas in bad school districts because that's all they can afford. Rent is getting out of hand in comparison to salaries here. 15 years ago, they could have afforded to be in fairly decent area with an average school district. If salaries catch up, than it will no longer be an issue, but I don't see Pittsburgh employers acknowledging in the near future that the cost of living is rising.
Another great thing about living in Pittsburgh is the fast commutes. Our road system isn't designed to handle heavy traffic. I see more and more out of state plates. Last week, I was sitting at an intersection light and every car around me was from out of state----New Hampshire, New York, Wisconsin, Illinois, etc. None of the cars were Pennsylvania. At least they know how to drive. I wouldn't mind giving up the fast commute for more small businesses opening in all of the vacant storefronts. I'm not sure how that's going to happen since commercial property owners think rent needs to be super high as soon as a neighborhood gets some interest. High rent is why the hypothetical hardware store and the trendy yogurt shop Caladium mentioned doesn't stay open. On the flip side, the new population is probably more likely to stop at these new businesses than Pittsburghers who are stuck in their shopping routine ruts.
Wow. You and I are really on the same wavelength today, Hopes!
I agree with the majority on here that we are by no means in a "real estate bubble" here. The problem many on here aren't willing to admit, though, is that many typical entry-level salaries for younger people have remained relatively flat in Pittsburgh for years despite housing costs rising considerably. As I said in the past I recently worked for what is probably the second-largest employer in the city behind the oft-maligned UPMC. My starting salary was the same as others in my position had been earning years ago, as I learned through speaking to former employees of this financial giant, despite our rising cost of housing. What does this mean? Someone working here five years ago would have had a better quality-of-life as a smaller proportion of their income would be devoted to rent. This financial giant has absolutely no concern about the welfare and general well-being of its employees as long as it can beat investors' expectations on Wall Street.
I, too, worry about our posterity. I drive a hybrid. We put more on the curb for recycling than we do for regular trash by a 2:1 margin. We compost. I conserve utilities whenever possible. As such I also worry about how this area's future will fare once its one and only major economic competitive advantage---the housing "bang-for-your-buck" factor---is depleted. We're NOT supposed to be saying "at least we're cheaper than NYC or S.F.". We're supposed to be monitoring what housing prices are doing in COMPARABLE metro areas (the ones I mentioned in my last reply). If our cost of housing is rising much more quickly than housing in those areas while our salaries remain roughly evenly-matched, then Pittsburgh will no longer be seen as having "cheap housing", and people will instead move to Cleveland or other areas that offer similar salaries with much cheaper rents. I'll admit I do worry about displacing lower-income people myself if we move to a lower-income neighborhood and buy there with our middle-class salaries. Eventually all of the middle-income people who are priced out of the "trendy" areas will also elevate pricing in the non-trendy areas out of the grasp of those who are struggling and aren't middle-class. Where will those people go? Why is nobody concerned about this? This won't happen in 1, 5, or 10 years. It WILL happen in our children's lifetimes, though.
Once employers can no longer pay low wages to Pittsburgh workers due to a higher cost of living the growth rate will slow down and corporations will pick a new metro to "outsource" to. Because lets be honest, the top reason jobs have been in abundance here recently is because corporations can pay people peanuts here in comparison to the rest of the country. When this occurs the population boom will slow down because there won't be as many jobs and the low cost of living will be a thing of the past.
That's just the reality of globalization I guess. Leach off one area until the well runs dry then move on to the next. This is why less and less companies are outsourcing to places like India and moving to other countries like Vietnam or even back to the American Midwest: people are starting to demand respectable wages in India. Pittsburgh hasn't reached that turning point yet, but it will.
I totally agree that there is a wage / salary issue in Pittsburgh but I think that a larger problem for younger people is school debt. In Pgh at least, you are much much much better off if you are an electrician or a plumber with no school debt than if you have a liberal arts BA and 40-60k in student debt. Not only are the plumber or electrician's wages likely better, but their debt to income ratio is much better.
Once employers can no longer pay low wages to Pittsburgh workers due to a higher cost of living the growth rate will slow down and corporations will pick a new metro to "outsource" to. Because lets be honest, the top reason jobs have been in abundance here recently is because corporations can pay people peanuts here in comparison to the rest of the country. When this occurs the population boom will slow down because there won't be as many jobs and the low cost of living will be a thing of the past.
That's just the reality of globalization I guess. Leach off one area until the well runs dry then move on to the next. This is why less and less companies are outsourcing to places like India and moving to other countries like Vietnam or even back to the American Midwest: people are starting to demand respectable wages in India. Pittsburgh hasn't reached that turning point yet, but it will.
its not just globalization its basic economics, the law of supply and demand. wages were incredibly cheap in india because there was no work even for educated people who spoke english. globalization meant that companies could exploit that on a global rather than regional scale. on the flip side has been excessively high domestic cost...with the dollar devaluation and increase in domestic natural resource output some of that. (excluding healthcare) is being addressed. remember the us made a lot of money undercutting europe. we also imported cheap labor which accounts for the bulk of pittaburghs current population
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Why is nobody concerned about this? This won't happen in 1, 5, or 10 years. It WILL happen in our children's lifetimes, though.
