Analyzing the Mayoral primary results (Pittsburgh, Allentown: 2013, how much, home)

[I_Like_Spam]

The results are online by precinct.

I see that although Mr. Wagner was able to win precincts in Carrick, Westwood, Brighton Heights and Crafton Heights by 2 to 1 margins, and stay even with Mr. Peduto in the Hill District and Homewood- in places like Shadyside Mr. Peduto ran up 4 to 1 margins to win the day.

Apparently, even though Mr. Wagner was just about as liberal as Mr. Peduto on nearly every issue, and attached himself to all of the progressive red-meat issues like abortion and gay marriage , he looked too much like a social conservative and got crushed.

Maybe if he actually were a social conservative, like the late Commissioner Foerster, he could have done better in his strongholds- he couldn't have done much worse in the east end than he did.

Also, we found out that the voters in Pittsburgh don't consider the ability to endure great pain to be much of a qualification for office- Mr. Richardson only received 1%.

[UKyank]

Consider too that the east end is Peduto's home turf which probably had more to do with his 4-1 advantage then any of the issues

[eschaton]

I also noticed that Jake Wheatley didn't come anywhere near locking up the black vote. He did respectably in the Hill District (winning a plurality to 60% of the vote), but in other black neighborhoods, Peduto usually had a majority/plurality. Occasionally, even Jack Wagner won some black precincts, which was somewhat unexpected.

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by I_Like_Spam

Apparently, even though Mr. Wagner was just about as liberal as Mr. Peduto on nearly every issue, and attached himself to all of the progressive red-meat issues like abortion and gay marriage , he looked too much like a social conservative and got crushed.

I really don't think those mattered much. They aren't issues where city government has much of a role. He got beat because he was too close to Ravenstahl, too late entering to craft an effective campaign with a positive message.

[Clint.]

I wonder if Wagner regrets jumping in last minute for the primary rather than running as an independent like he originally intended. Peduto had been running for much longer and had very enthusiastic supporters, whereas Wagner's late entry and very vague platform put him at a disadvantage, especially with people who were not at all familiar with him and for one reason or another just ended up not voting at all. There were a lot of them; but to be fair, maybe his campaign should have done a better job mobilizing them. Maybe another consequence of coming to the game too late.

The association with Ravenstahl - however tenuous, and maybe more than anything, Ravenstahl willing and ready to support the most credible 'non-peduto' candidate who wasn't willing to turn down a bunch of campaign cash - didn't help him either...especially that crazy facebook rant.

Neither Wagner or Peduto would be bad mayors. There is definitely room for improvement with how City services are currently managed. The concept of government secrecy and privilege is endemic in this country from the smallest towns to the most elite dealing in D.C., so anytime someone can reduce that a bit bravo. Beyond that though, I'm not sure how much leverage and power the Mayor of Pittsburgh has these days. Or really how much else beyond providing excellent yet still cost-conscious basic government services we should expect the City to do.

Whether under Act 47 or not, earnestly strive for a balanced budget; don't raise taxes or fees - lower them if possible - and don't go looking for ways to nickel and dime residents. Pay down the debts. Be fair and don't try to bully businesses - geez louise, in most cases Pittsburgh doesn't have the clout to do that.

Other than that all that's left is to be creative and receptive to new ideas...with the realization that if there is any significant cost involved someone else will need to be persuaded to pay for it, because the City sure as heck doesn't have the $$$. And if on top of all that someone has brilliant ideas about how to end poverty and blight and violence and drug problems and poor academic performance in public schools and eliminate unemployment all through some city government programs...by all means we are looking at the savior and will soon be playing Hail to the Chief for him!

[Goodjules]

Originally Posted by Moby Hick

I really don't think those mattered much. They aren't issues where city government has much of a role.

In general that is true, but remember that it was Gavin Newsom, then mayor of SF who legalized gay marriage in the city which ultimately led to Prop 8 that banned gay marriage in CA. Now it's a Supreme Court case. Some said that Newsom's stand on gay marriage negatively affected the presidential race for the Democrats as a result. If memory serves it was the Kerry/Bush election, but I'm not sure and I'm too sleepy to look it up.

It is rare, but local mayoral politics sometimes do have a huge impact on national issues.

[Tirade]

Pitt created a nice map that shows how each neighborhood voted:

The Pub | UCSUR

Originally Posted by I_Like_Spam

Apparently, even though Mr. Wagner was just about as liberal as Mr. Peduto on nearly every issue, and attached himself to all of the progressive red-meat issues like abortion and gay marriage , he looked too much like a social conservative and got crushed.

Wagner's problem is that he did a terrible job of reaching out to voters. He had no discernible platform on his website beyond "I'm from Beechview and was in the Marines." He didn't utilize social media. He assumed that having the right endorsements was enough to sway the voters, and therefore put relatively little effort into his campaign.

Meanwhile, Peduto had an extensive website with detailed plans on what he wants to do with Pittsburgh. He utilized social media, even holding a popular "Ask Me Anything" event on Reddit. A lot of those East End votes were undoubtedly from younger, tech-savvy voters who were able to connect with Peduto's campaign. Wagner completely ignored this demographic.

In summary, Wagner used dated campaign tactics that are no longer relevant in 2013. He could have promised free money and cookies to every Pittsburgh resident, and he still would have lost because he completely and utterly fails at connecting with the voter base.

[Clint.]

PA doesn't have propositions, though. Pittsburgh would just be sued if it tried to legalize a controversial practice, and why spend money defending a suit for a case where the City had no authority to make a law that, despite any inspirational value, will be invalid anyway? We'll probably already be spending a lot of money in the UPMC suit that may be pointless. Even if successful, and UPMC suddenly becomes for-profit status, then what? They already outsource work and pay relatively low wages...doubtful that or much else would improve. They'd pay property taxes and the CEO would get paid even more and management would feel even less obligated to be a 'good employer' - that's about it. Some victory that will be.

Michael Bloomberg is trying to make national waves in NYC. Maybe it would work in Pittsburgh, but, other than some national press and some people verbally lauding the action, I'm not sure how getting tied up in controversies would be economically good for Pittsburgh, or that any mayor who tried would have a second term; turnout for that election may be a bit higher than just the most faithful.

You never know though, which I guess is the idea.

[FreightTrainRunning]

Originally Posted by UKyank

Consider too that the east end is Peduto's home turf which probably had more to do with his 4-1 advantage then any of the issues

I think that it's more of a combination of the two. People that live in places like the East-End or the lower North Side are probably more likely to agree with the issues that Mr. Peduto is promoting than people living in more traditional areas of the city. People tend to self sort geographically according to their demographics.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Tirade

Pitt created a nice map that shows how each neighborhood voted:

The Pub | UCSUR

The map is fascinating. You can really see how Wheatley's inability to lock up the black vote helped Peduto in a lot of the city. For example, I'm pretty sure Peduto won the precincts he did in the outer North Side, and South Pittsburgh neighborhoods like Allentown, Knoxville, and Mount Oliver on his comparable strength this time with the black vote - as higher place populations are the only thing which distinguishes them from other precincts in the same general area. I know in some sections of Homewood Peduto won an outright majority of the vote.

That said, Wagner won a smattering of East End majority-black precincts too. I'm not sure what appear Jack Wagner had over the other candidates somewhere like Garfield or Larimer, but his campaign must have appealed to some of them. Peduto probably only won a few percent more of the black vote than the white vote, and black turnout seems to have been lower than normal this time around (although still higher than turnout in most white neighborhoods).

Still, it would have been interesting to see if "New Pittsburgh" versus "Old Pittsburgh" alone would have worked out the same way. I have a feeling Peduto would have won still, but by a slightly less comfortable margin.