Three Rivers Workforce Investment board (Pittsburgh, Moscow: employment, college, calculated)

[zman63]

There is a lot of interesting stuff on their website. This was taken from Page 8 of the study...

1. MISMATCH BETWEEN THE REGION’S LABOR SUPPLY AND JOB DEMAND
There is a large and widening mismatch in Western Pennsylvania between the education and occupational skill level of employees and the requirements of the region’s jobs. Across the entire labor force of Western Pennsylvania (both employed and unemployed individuals), there is an over-supply of workers with bachelor’s degrees and higher (i.e., more graduates than jobs requiring those skills) and an under-supply of those without college degrees (i.e., fewer individuals than jobs requiring those skills)8 . The implication
of this gap is that many people currently employed may actually be “over-qualified” for their current jobs. Forecasts from the US Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. suggest that this gap is likely to widen over the next five years (EXHIBIT 3). This has broad implications for workforce development and job creation initiatives. If not addressed, this gap will continue to fuel the net outflow of higher educated/ higher skilled workers from the region as they search for more appropriate employment in other parts of the country. This educational mismatch differs from the situation at the national level, where there is a projected shortfall of 1.5 million workers having a bachelor’s degree or higher by 2020.

http://www.trwib.org/admin/uploads/W...ment-FINAL.pdf

[pghdude28]

Originally Posted by zman63

There is a lot of interesting stuff on their website. This was taken from Page 8 of the study...

1. MISMATCH BETWEEN THE REGION’S LABOR SUPPLY AND JOB DEMAND
There is a large and widening mismatch in Western Pennsylvania between the education and occupational skill level of employees and the requirements of the region’s jobs. Across the entire labor force of Western Pennsylvania (both employed and unemployed individuals), there is an over-supply of workers with bachelor’s degrees and higher (i.e., more graduates than jobs requiring those skills) and an under-supply of those without college degrees (i.e., fewer individuals than jobs requiring those skills)8 . The implication
of this gap is that many people currently employed may actually be “over-qualified” for their current jobs. Forecasts from the US Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. suggest that this gap is likely to widen over the next five years (EXHIBIT 3). This has broad implications for workforce development and job creation initiatives. If not addressed, this gap will continue to fuel the net outflow of higher educated/ higher skilled workers from the region as they search for more appropriate employment in other parts of the country. This educational mismatch differs from the situation at the national level, where there is a projected shortfall of 1.5 million workers having a bachelor’s degree or higher by 2020.

http://www.trwib.org/admin/uploads/W...ment-FINAL.pdf

Did you look into the higher education bubble? While not at all exclusive to Western PA, but if the bubble were to burst, one of the region's largest employers -Pitt, will sink. Imagine the job loss associated with such a catastrophe. Less students, less spending in the local economy. We need to diversify this region's economy. A more attractive place for small businesses is the way to go.

[Moby Hick]

I used my higher education to read that report* and it appears to be at least 90% ass-leavings and 10% self-interested factoid-picking done by somebody trying to sell something. The key sentence is what was highlighted in the OP, but you need to look at Footnote 8. It reads:

Labor supply projections calculated by applying historical trends to the US Census Bureau’s Current Population
Survey demographic data; demand projections taken by applying typical educational attainment distribution of
individuals currently employed in a given occupation, as noted in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Outlook
Handbook, Table 1.11 (Education and training measurements by occupation) to EMSI occupation projections

The first thing I noticed is that nowhere do they clarify any of this. What does "applying historical trends" mean, because there are lots of ways of doing that and it isn't hard to give the reader a general idea of the technique used. Also, nowhere in the report do they say what "EMSI" stands for or like to a report. Did they commission a detailed study of the local employment market and forget to link to it or mention it was done?

I doubt it. I think it is Economic Modeling Specialists International (which is international because it's in Moscow, Idaho).

About EMSI | EMSI | Economic Modeling Specialists Intl.

If that is the right EMSI (and I can't find anything else that looks plausible), we see that EMSI is a "CarrerBuilder company." It turns out to be basically Monster.com except nobody ever heard of it. In other words, the people who get paid to advertise jobs are saying it is going to be hard to find people to get jobs. And the people who make Scope say your breath stinks. In making another point, they say, "Vacancies estimated based on online help wanted data," which makes me think I'm right about what EMSI is and also makes me even more dubious about their data. Because if you base your estimate of positions on the number of times the jobs are posted, you're bound to over-estimate the lower paying, lower skill jobs because people leave them for better money as soon as they can. Many lower-level jobs, and nearly all lower paying jobs, are posted more or less continuously.

If look at the actual BLS data without spiking it with nonsense, you'll see quite clearly how big of a disaster this recession was for those without education.

Earnings and unemployment rates by educational attainment

As the report notes, nationally the problem is that there will not be enough workers with Bachelor's degrees. Pittsburgh is supposed to be somehow different despite the fact that right now we're the same as the rest of the country, with much higher rates of unemployment for those with less education.

http://www.ucsur.pitt.edu/files/peq/peq_2012-09.pdf


*Thus illustrating the difference between knowledge and wisdom (which would have let me ignore the whole pile of garbage).

[zman63]

Originally Posted by pghdude28

Did you look into the higher education bubble? While not at all exclusive to Western PA, but if the bubble were to burst, one of the region's largest employers -Pitt, will sink. Imagine the job loss associated with such a catastrophe. Less students, less spending in the local economy. We need to diversify this region's economy. A more attractive place for small businesses is the way to go.

I agree with you on most of what you mentioned. Small businesses are this city's future. I am on the fence regarding the higher education bubble bursting in Pittsburgh. It will either burst or the city will be the nation's leader in exporting college grads to other cities. I am holding my breath on the city/county population growth. IMO I think it is more or less tied to the national economy in dire straits and people staying put rather than real economic growth in pittsburgh. Other cities have ramped up growth over the last year. People can leave for much better opportunities elsewhere now. We will see what happens over the next 5-7 years if we are really growing or my theory is correct. I can tell you one thing, if I am correct, there will also be a mini housing bubble in Pittsburgh that bursts. The current wages are unable to keep pace with the bloated housing prices locally.

With all of that said, it seems as if there are two job classes available in Pittsburgh. The one that requires 10-15 years experience and masters/doctorate degree. The other is the lower paying retail, service,part time,dead end, not requiring a college education type of jobs. This region is really lacking the middle ground type of professional jobs. I do not really see that many entry level professional jobs advertised either. We also lack in the business start ups.