We're halfway there...predictions for the 2020 census? (Pittsburgh, Plum: apartments, renter)

[eschaton]

I was recently reviewing the 2010 census figures for Pittsburgh neighborhoods. Given we're halfway to the next census, it might be a good time to predict where we're going to be as a city by then.

I'll start of with what I think are a few not very controversial projections:

The Strip District will have somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000 residents.

Central North Side will be majority white.

Lower Lawrenceville and Central Lawrenceville will post population increases, as enough infill construction is taking place in both neighborhoods now to cancel out declining household size. I'm less sure on Upper Lawrenceville. A lot of black families moved there in the last few years of the 2000s, and they are being gentrified out now and replaced by single people.

East Liberty will still be majority black, but whiter than in 2010. I'm guessing somewhere in the range of 55%-60% black.

Shadyside will post a major population increase, due to both Bakery Living and the new apartment buildings by the East Liberty Busway station being technically in the neighborhood.

Sheraden and Marshall-Shadeland will be majority black.

Anyone have predictions of their own?

[I_Like_Spam]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Sheraden and Marshall-Shadeland will be majority black.

Anyone have predictions of their own?

I don't see that.

The areas may be in decline, but they are currently heavily white and I don't see poor white Pittsburghers abandoning the area to make room for new minorities to make a new majority especially in just 5 years.


Hazelwood has been in decline for a lot longer than Sheraden and MS, and is a majority white.


Further, MS may be "more white" than the census would indicate. The neighborhood has a major state penitentiary within its borders which can skew the numbers. The census figures probably give a misimpression of diversity in places like Attica NY as well.

[wpipkins2]

The new apartments near the busway are definitely in East Liberty proper. The land was the former location of East Liberty Station, the former Kingsley Center and the indoor tennis facility. All were located in East Liberty.

[I_Like_Spam]

Originally Posted by wpipkins2

The new apartments near the busway are definitely in East Liberty proper. The land was the former location of East Liberty Station, the former Kingsley Center and the indoor tennis facility. All were located in East Liberty.

You're right, but the city disagrees and puts every thing south of Penn and Centre as part of Shadyside.

[Craziaskowboi]

Watch the city of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County both gain population while the metropolitan area loses population.

[bluecarebear]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

Watch the city of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County both gain population while the metropolitan area loses population.

I'm guessing the opposite. Washington and Butler Counties will continue to grow, along with the suburbs of Allegheny County. The poor areas of the city and communities to the southeast will continue to decline. The Washington/Allegheny county line will be the big winner.

The other factor to consider is renters. Pittsburgh is a huge rental migrant community. A large population of renters isn't a good signal of long term growth.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

Watch the city of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County both gain population while the metropolitan area loses population.

Im betting on Allegheny and Butler growing fast enough to post a gain. Even eastern suburbs aren't declining like they used to. Monroeville is now stagnant and Plum is growing.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by I_Like_Spam

I don't see that.

The areas may be in decline, but they are currently heavily white and I don't see poor white Pittsburghers abandoning the area to make room for new minorities to make a new majority especially in just 5 years.


Hazelwood has been in decline for a lot longer than Sheraden and MS, and is a majority white.


Further, MS may be "more white" than the census would indicate. The neighborhood has a major state penitentiary within its borders which can skew the numbers. The census figures probably give a misimpression of diversity in places like Attica NY as well.

Here's the 2000 versus 2010 statistics for the three neighborhoods

2000:
Sheraden: 75.5% white, 21.1% black
Marshall-Shadeland: 66% white, 30.8% black
Hazelwood: 62.8% white, 34.4% black

2010:
Sheraden: 50.9% white, 41.3% black
Marshall-Shadeland: 51.4% white, 43.3% black
Hazelwood: 54.3% white, 41% black

From 2000 to 2010, Sheraden gained 910 black residents, and lost 1,872 white residents. Marshall-Shadeland gained 477 black residents, and lost 1,480 white residents. Hazelwood lost 64 black residents. if this decade showed the same numeric changes as the last decade, by 2020 Hazelwood would be 52% black, Marshall-Shadeland 60% black, and Sheraden 68% black.

That said, I do not expect the trajectory to be identical. The white population in all neighborhoods is smaller than it used to be, meaning the numeric decline should be smaller as well. Sheraden was hugely affected by the closure of Broadhead Manor last decade. Marshall-Shadeland has had some stabilization efforts which hopefully will slow the pace of white flight as well. I expect both to have black majorities in range of 50%-59%.

FWIW, I doubt the jail plays much role in Marshall-Shadeland's demographic changes. In 2010 the census tract which contained the jail (and little else) was 47% white and 45% black. The population was only up 1.8% since 2000 in this census tract. The black population here had actually shrunk by 32%, while the white population rose by 85% - the prison's inhabitants got much whiter. If anything, it masked the changes going on in the residential portion of the neighborhood.

I am not projecting that Hazelwood is going to be majority black by 2020. It's not really a neighborhood which has been undergoing white flight in the classic sense, since black people haven't been moving in to replace the white people moving out. More importantly, what happens with ALMANO remains an open question. By 2020 there could be no residential buildings yet constructed. Or there could be a number, but they could be "mixed income" buildings, which raise the black population of the neighborhood higher. Or it could be a market-rate enclave which makes the neighborhood much whiter. Time will tell.

[I_Like_Spam]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Here's the 2000 versus 2010 statistics for the three neighborhoods

2000:
Sheraden: 75.5% white, 21.1% black
Marshall-Shadeland: 66% white, 30.8% black
Hazelwood: 62.8% white, 34.4% black

2010:
Sheraden: 50.9% white, 41.3% black
Marshall-Shadeland: 51.4% white, 43.3% black
Hazelwood: 54.3% white, 41% black.

I was looking at these pie graphs when I commented on Sheraden's racial makeup.

http://www.city-data.com/neighborhoo...sburgh-PA.html

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by wpipkins2

The new apartments near the busway are definitely in East Liberty proper. The land was the former location of East Liberty Station, the former Kingsley Center and the indoor tennis facility. All were located in East Liberty.

The city bases its neighborhood definitions on census tracts, because it makes it easy to track neighborhood population changes. The Shadyside tracts include everything up to Centre and Penn.

The only apartment building so far opened in official East Liberty has been the Highland Building, although it will be joined by Walnut on Penn soon enough. The other apartment buildings constructed in East Liberty - the ones at the intersection of Penn/Negley, the Fairfield Apartments, and now the new set being built where Omega Place used to be - are all mixed income developments which shouldn't have altered the demographics that much.

That said, East Liberty Gardens - one of the last of the old low-income complexes in East Liberty - is slated to be closed within the next five years. Some of the replacement apartments will be built on northern side of East Liberty Boulevard, technically in Larimer according to the city. This should result in a further reduction of the black population of East Liberty, even if no other shoes drop (like the demolition of Penn Plaza).

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

Watch the city of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County both gain population while the metropolitan area loses population.

Yeah, I guess I forgot to project the big enchilada here. I expect Pittsburgh will have some small level of growth. I'm less sure on Allegheny County as a whole. The outer suburbs are getting close to full, and there are plenty of first-ring suburbs and old boroughs still in freefall.

Originally Posted by bluecarebear

The other factor to consider is renters. Pittsburgh is a huge rental migrant community. A large population of renters isn't a good signal of long term growth.

I'm not sure I understand this comment. Cities with the highest proportion of renters are among the most desirable in the country. Certainly within the city of Pittsburgh, Shadyside (74% renter occupied) is more desirable than Bon Air (12.9% renter occupied)