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Old 08-27-2015, 09:01 AM
 
Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife)
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So sayeth a study by the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. And according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Aaron Renn, one of the authors of the study, had this to say:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron Renn
You're talking about a region that took horrific economic blows. For a region in that position to be performing like this I think is pretty incredible.
And here's a nifty little graph that says it all:



It's like Pittsburgh has been kicking all its detractors in the face for 15 years, and they didn't even realize it!
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Old 08-27-2015, 09:35 AM
 
Location: The Flagship City and Vacation in the Paris of Appalachia
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Very interesting stuff, and here is a key point from the study that should be discussed:

Pittsburgh’s case is particularly instructive. The city is home to more than 70,000 residents over age 85, or 3 percent of its population—one of the highest shares of the “super-senior” demographic in the United States. Pittsburgh is one of only six of the top 100 U.S. metros to experience a “natural decrease” (i.e., more deaths than births) in population during the 2010s. The city’s older cohort, who are dying, are less educated than its youth. This alone raises Pittsburgh’s education-attainment rates.

Pittsburgh is doing very well when it comes to change in educational attainment of residents, but a good part of this change is due to uneducated seniors dying and being replaced with educated young people. I believe that growing cities tend to have less "brain gain" because there are many new people of all education levels including many recent immigrants and families that are having more kids. As Pittsburgh has shifted to more a technology, education, and healthcare job market this has attracted young, educated people to move to the area. My main concern about this trend is that if these new residents don't have kids or the infrastructure is not "right-sized" for the current population it will be very hard to maintain a decent quality of life in the area without huge tax increases for residents. It is definitely nice to see Pittsburgh as one of the most educated cities in the U.S. and this is great for future job growth in industries that need educated employees, but after reading this study I also have to wonder if Pittsburgh is kind of an outlier because of the natural decline in population.
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Old 08-27-2015, 09:56 AM
 
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Quote:
My main concern about this trend is that if these new residents don't have kids or the infrastructure is not "right-sized" for the current population it will be very hard to maintain a decent quality of life in the area without huge tax increases for residents.
Highly qualified peeps earns more money than than the old peeps they are replacing. Hence they spend more and pay more taxes. This creates the need for better services, which creates more jobs. I saw it happening in the 2.5 years I was in Squirrel Hill, and I suspect Pgh is close to reaching the tipping point where this growth gains a momentum of its own. I can't see any downsides at all to this change in demographics.
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Old 08-27-2015, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Crafton via San Francisco
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gortonator View Post
Highly qualified peeps earns more money than than the old peeps they are replacing. Hence they spend more and pay more taxes. This creates the need for better services, which creates more jobs. I saw it happening in the 2.5 years I was in Squirrel Hill, and I suspect Pgh is close to reaching the tipping point where this growth gains a momentum of its own. I can't see any downsides at all to this change in demographics.
I'd add that property values tend to rise which means cities get more revenue from property taxes. The cost of running a city doesn't vary a whole lot between rich cities and poor cities so more revenue from higher property values really helps with infrastructure costs.
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Old 08-27-2015, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Mid-Atlantic
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It would be nice if the Forum experienced a brain gain.
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Old 08-27-2015, 10:49 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Copanut View Post
It would be nice if the Forum experienced a brain gain.
Considering it's the internet, it doesn't do that bad.
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Old 08-27-2015, 11:53 AM
 
Location: The Flagship City and Vacation in the Paris of Appalachia
2,773 posts, read 3,839,579 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gortonator View Post
Highly qualified peeps earns more money than than the old peeps they are replacing. Hence they spend more and pay more taxes. This creates the need for better services, which creates more jobs. I saw it happening in the 2.5 years I was in Squirrel Hill, and I suspect Pgh is close to reaching the tipping point where this growth gains a momentum of its own. I can't see any downsides at all to this change in demographics.
Good points, but I was referring to the size and scope of the infrastructure. If the new, highly paid residents are being taxed to death to maintain a large and no longer necessary infrastructure for a city of approximately 700,000 people when only about 300,000 people live in the city this could create several issues. The positives outweigh the negatives when it comes to "Brain Gain" in shrinking cities, but infrastructure is a major issue here and more/better services still do not solve the problem of a large infrastructure that is no longer needed. Also, while young, wealthy, and highly educated people may be willing to pay higher taxes for increased services and better infrastructure, there is still a limit here and taxes that are too high for residents could have very negative effects in the future. Overall, I think we agree I am just hoping the overall population starts to stabilize and potentially increase in the near future.
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Old 08-27-2015, 12:08 PM
 
Location: The Flagship City and Vacation in the Paris of Appalachia
2,773 posts, read 3,839,579 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodjules View Post
I'd add that property values tend to rise which means cities get more revenue from property taxes. The cost of running a city doesn't vary a whole lot between rich cities and poor cities so more revenue from higher property values really helps with infrastructure costs.
Property taxes are currently a major issue in western PA and more specifically Pittsburgh and Allegheny County. The percentage of city/county buildings that are non-profit is very high and the county and city have recently tried to start taxing non-profits because of revenue issues. The city has even tried and failed to tax UPMC. I have included a few articles below and Pittsburgh is definitely an unusual case because of the high numbers of properties that are off the tax rolls and while many of these non-profits provide great jobs and create revenues for the city, this creates a property tax revenue issue for the city and county.

Small non-profit groups losing property-tax exemptions in first wave of county's review | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

UPMC, city drop legal fight over taxes | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
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Old 08-27-2015, 12:27 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trackstar13 View Post
Also, while young, wealthy, and highly educated people may be willing to pay higher taxes for increased services and better infrastructure, there is still a limit here and taxes that are too high for residents could have very negative effects in the future.
why are higher taxes necessarily needed? Higher incomes and property values lead to higher tax yields at the existing levels, and if population growth is not massive, then this could well be sufficient. It's when a city has to also cope with population growth like here in Seattle that things get complicated. No new taxes here though (yet), and all the new properties being built are helping raise tax income. We pay a lot less tax in WA in fact
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Old 08-27-2015, 12:56 PM
 
5,894 posts, read 6,851,896 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gortonator View Post
why are higher taxes necessarily needed? Higher incomes and property values lead to higher tax yields at the existing levels, and if population growth is not massive, then this could well be sufficient. It's when a city has to also cope with population growth like here in Seattle that things get complicated. No new taxes here though (yet), and all the new properties being built are helping raise tax income. We pay a lot less tax in WA in fact
When you don't reassess properties with any regularity then you only capture a portion revenue from the higher property values, namely just new construction (which itself is often tax abated) or recent purchases which is a problem here.
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