Allegheny County's population shrank in 2016, according to the U.S. Census... (Philadelphia: income, income tax)

[eschaton]

We're waiting on the full data, which will be out later today, but the Census put out a press release which includes numbers of Allegheny County.

2016 population: 1,225,365
Decline: -3,933 (-0.32%)

Natural Population Decline (births minus deaths): -802
Domestic migration: -5,821
International migration: 3,479

Not a good annual estimate, but some notes.

1. We're the only large urban county in the country with more births than deaths. You can see this when looking at the other shrinking areas, like Cook County, Wayne County, Baltimore, Cuyahoga County, Milwaukee County, St. Louis, etc. Basically everywhere else in the country, no matter how economically depressed, there are more births than deaths. If we can get a reasonable natural population growth rate again, our net decline will be cut considerably, and could even vanish.

2. It's not good to have domestic outmigration, but basically every established urban and suburban county in the Northeast and Midwest has this - from people moving elsewhere to retire if nothing else. Oue proportionate decline due to migration is much smaller than the other "bottom 10" listed. For example, we only had a net decline of about half a percent attributable to domestic migration last year, while Cook County (Chicago) had a net decline of close to 1.3%. So while people are leaving Allegheny County, they aren't leaving at an especially spectacular rate.

3. Our international migration numbers don't appear to be terrible, but they're nothing special - only a hair better than Cuyahaoga County and Milwaukee County. We're proportionately a bit worse than Baltimore or Saint Louis, but given those are standalone cities not consolidated into their counties, it's not really an apples to apples comparison.

[JoeP]

It's on par but slightly worse than the previous year...

-5680 domestic

+3645 foreign

13,512 births

13,639 deaths

for a total net change of -2,437

It is typical that older established areas suffer on domestic migration, but Pittsburgh could and should do better. It has the foundations to do so, but it lacks the scale. There simply isn't enough job creation.

[speagles84]

Just like I said on the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia thread, a horrid year for PA. Philadelphia MSA nearly had negative change.

[eschaton]

I looked at the outlying counties, and they aren't doing any better.

Butler County came very close to losing population, only gaining 406 people (0.22%). Washington County lost population (not surprising given the fracking bust) losing 287 people (-0.14%). Still, it was a smaller decline than Allegheny County percentage wise. Every other outlying county continued to hemorrhage population. Westmoreland declined at nearly twice the rate of Allegheny (-0.63%) and it just gets worse and worse after that. Though the biggest proportionate losers are in rural parts of the northern tier of the state, not in the Pittsburgh metro.

[Paul2421]

Originally Posted by eschaton

We're waiting on the full data, which will be out later today, but the Census put out a press release which includes numbers of Allegheny County.

2016 population: 1,225,365
Decline: -3,933 (-0.32%)

Natural Population Decline (births minus deaths): -802
Domestic migration: -5,821
International migration: 3,479

Not a good annual estimate, but some notes.

1. We're the only large urban county in the country with more births than deaths. You can see this when looking at the other shrinking areas, like Cook County, Wayne County, Baltimore, Cuyahoga County, Milwaukee County, St. Louis, etc. Basically everywhere else in the country, no matter how economically depressed, there are more births than deaths. If we can get a reasonable natural population growth rate again, our net decline will be cut considerably, and could even vanish.

2. It's not good to have domestic outmigration, but basically every established urban and suburban county in the Northeast and Midwest has this - from people moving elsewhere to retire if nothing else. Oue proportionate decline due to migration is much smaller than the other "bottom 10" listed. For example, we only had a net decline of about half a percent attributable to domestic migration last year, while Cook County (Chicago) had a net decline of close to 1.3%. So while people are leaving Allegheny County, they aren't leaving at an especially spectacular rate.

3. Our international migration numbers don't appear to be terrible, but they're nothing special - only a hair better than Cuyahaoga County and Milwaukee County. We're proportionately a bit worse than Baltimore or Saint Louis, but given those are standalone cities not consolidated into their counties, it's not really an apples to apples comparison.

i believe you mean more deaths than births in your first comment

[gg]

I also think people need to realize baby-boomers are moving south and the entire NE is losing people. It doesn't have a huge meaning really. Heck, I am ready to move south myself. Pittsburgh is doing very well overall. It isn't population as much as it is WHO is moving into the city, which appears to be those that are working for a living in various fields and less non-working/welfare folks. Anyway, people are migrating south. Florida is a MUCH better place for retirees for taxes as well. NO state tax and really just cheaper living.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by gg

Florida is a MUCH better place for retirees for taxes as well. NO state tax and really just cheaper living.

Pennsylvania is one of only two states in the country that exempt all retiree income (including 401(k) withdrawals) from taxation. Unless you work in retirement, you won't pay state taxes. IIRC local income taxes in Pennsylvania follow the state lead, so the same is true. Really the only thing you would pay is property tax, and that is discounted as well.

[MountainDewGuy]

Don't worry everyone... BRT and the Superplagiarizer at PPS will get this turned around.

[bluecarebear]

Originally Posted by gg

I also think people need to realize baby-boomers are moving south and the entire NE is losing people. It doesn't have a huge meaning really. Heck, I am ready to move south myself. Pittsburgh is doing very well overall. It isn't population as much as it is WHO is moving into the city, which appears to be those that are working for a living in various fields and less non-working/welfare folks. Anyway, people are migrating south. Florida is a MUCH better place for retirees for taxes as well. NO state tax and really just cheaper living.

Baby-boomers aren't the only ones that have headed South and not returned. Pittsburgh is a young/old city. There is a definite lack of individuals between 30-50 years old in the city. Only 6.5 percent of the population is between 30-34 years old.

[krogerDisco]

Originally Posted by gg

I also think people need to realize baby-boomers are moving south and the entire NE is losing people. It doesn't have a huge meaning really. Heck, I am ready to move south myself. Pittsburgh is doing very well overall. It isn't population as much as it is WHO is moving into the city, which appears to be those that are working for a living in various fields and less non-working/welfare folks. Anyway, people are migrating south. Florida is a MUCH better place for retirees for taxes as well. NO state tax and really just cheaper living.

It's also Texas. No state income tax and Houston and Dallas are over 6 million people...each.