Pittsburgh Region Population Decline

[rickms]

That's what they were saying 10-11 years ago, before the 2010 census.

The demographics are changing. That doesn't mean that natural change has flipped to positive yet.

[djfiler]

There are really fascinating demographic trends happening. That can get overshadowed by disputes that tend to be linked to one's own beliefs about how well the city or region is faring. Still a great discussion though!

What I find most interesting is splitting the net increase/decrease data into more specific categories. The overall stats paint a rather dismal picture. However more granular analysis is more bullish. As has been the case for about a decade, our population is declining due to the region's population being of an older average age. Death and migration away to popular retirement locals is leading to a population loss despite more young people moving to Pgh rather than out of Pgh.

Has anyone seen analysis that projects when these two trends will reverse in magnitude and result in yearly population increases? Its been just around the corner for years. That's probably bred a lot of hope along with a healthy amount of skepticism, as evidenced in this thread.

[Geeo]

Yes, it's a fascinating and complex topic. I like Chris Briem's (Pitt) analysis of it, because he's been tracking it for years. There's a lot more to it than just people coming or going. Overall, we're at about the same number of people as in 2010 with this decline. But the city of Pittsburgh is getting younger and attracting a high number of well-paying jobs and people 25-34. College graduates are sticking around more rather than leaving for other cities. We were ahead of the curve with an aging population (because of the 1980s steel bust), but now other cities are starting to experience the same thing with an older population. The bigger problem is the outlying counties, where small towns have never (and probably never will) recover from the 1980s de-industrialization. They continue to get older and die off, families are smaller, and there are no young people coming in to take their place.

Births still outnumber deaths, though, and that's our sticking point, along with a very small international immigrant population compared to other peer cities.

[PGH423]

Originally Posted by Geeo

Yes, it's a fascinating and complex topic. I like Chris Briem's (Pitt) analysis of it, because he's been tracking it for years. There's a lot more to it than just people coming or going. Overall, we're at about the same number of people as in 2010 with this decline. But the city of Pittsburgh is getting younger and attracting a high number of well-paying jobs and people 25-34. College graduates are sticking around more rather than leaving for other cities. We were ahead of the curve with an aging population (because of the 1980s steel bust), but now other cities are starting to experience the same thing with an older population. The bigger problem is the outlying counties, where small towns have never (and probably never will) recover from the 1980s de-industrialization. They continue to get older and die off, families are smaller, and there are no young people coming in to take their place.

Births still outnumber deaths, though, and that's our sticking point, along with a very small international immigrant population compared to other peer cities.

Births outnumber deaths or is it the reverse?

[Geeo]

Sorry, deaths outnumber births. I'm dyslexic with life and death.