Winter Storms, Pittsburgh & Weather Forecasts

[gg]

Originally Posted by PGH423

I'm referring to the National Weather Service predictions (weather.gov). YOU (and most people) are being played by the for-profit media predictions - you're correct in that regard. You have to remember that a dot.com internet site or a tv news channel is for-profit ENTERTAINMENT. I have no problem with you calling them out as long as you distinguish between honest, hard-working (currently unpaid) NWS meteorologists and for-profit entertainers.

I am not being played as I don't go by anything other than radar and temperature. I don't really go by anything else since weather is important to those of us to ride a bike. I hear about the weather predictions by watching the news and they go crazy over weather because there isn't much else to talk about in Pittsburgh after the first couple of murder stories.

Here is what I do for my weather today. I look at the temperature and if needed the hourly temperature. Today, I don't need to look at hourly since it is just going to be very cold all day, so I will need to dress in very warm gear for my bike ride. Then I look at the radar and see what is on its way. Today it looks like it will just be an occasional flurry with no real snow. What is on the ground now is probably about it for the most part. I don't need to hear a word from some weatherman looking to get people to tune in. This goes for all news. What I do have to deal with are other's reactions to all this hyped up crap. It effects our daily lives. Shutting down the turnpike to commercial traffic prematurely. Keeping in mind this is only the weather. It is mild compared to what the media does with headline news. We all have to deal with that and its effects on a daily basis. It sure isn't pretty!

[Tractor Face]

Originally Posted by PGH423

It looks like they correctly predicted that there would be a combination of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation and (probably) correctly predicted that there will be dangerous wind chill levels today. But in the region the National Weather Service specifically labelled "area of greatest uncertainty" it will have been more rain and less snow than their prediction. To say that they were "so far off" and "have no idea" is an overreaction. By the way, the NWS employees are government employees who are understaffed and working without pay right now.

And no, I'm not a meteorologist :-). I'm a scientist in a different field who gets frustrated by many of the public's reactions to science.

I will start paying attention to the NWS, thanks. That being said, this crying fire in a crowded movie theater is incredibly costly in several different ways. They should be held accountable. For instance, what I would like to see is Channel 2 trolling Channel 11, even mentioning it on their own broadcast. Their should be some kind of acknowledgement of just how bad these predictions turn out to be. Look what the news media does to sports stars. After terrible performances they are made to answer the dumbest, sometimes most insensitive questions. Stacy Smith should interview Kevin Benson and ask him "why are you so wrong so consistently...silence.....would you be better off conferring with the monkey that throws darts at a snow accumulation board?" Granted, I'm being facetious but there's alot of truth in there.

"It looks like they correctly predicted that there would be a combination of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation " Was this at 6:34am, after the snow already fell, and after they initially predicted 16 inches of snow or a liitle later when they predicted with finality, that it would now be all rain? Come to think of it, they might be on to something, just predict everything and you won't fail or better, just wait until after, what has been referred to as "the event", to make your prediction.

[PGH423]

Originally Posted by Tractor Face

"It looks like they correctly predicted that there would be a combination of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation " Was this at 6:34am, after the snow already fell, and after they initially predicted 16 inches of snow or a liitle later when they predicted with finality, that it would now be all rain? Come to think of it, they might be on to something, just predict everything and you won't fail or better, just wait until after, what has been referred to as "the event", to make your prediction.

I am referring to the NWS prediction. They initially said 6 to 8 inches of snow with some mixed precipitation but also indicated great uncertainty. It looks like we will be closer to 3 inches where I am (a few miles north of the city). They never said anything higher than "6 to 8 with great uncertainty." They also don't predict storm totals more than 1 to 2 days in advance. I'd be skeptical of anyone who predicts further in advance than that. NWS isn't perfect by any means. They're just more honest about uncertainty and they have no incentive to mislead.

You can follow the National Weather Service Pittsburgh, PA office prediction updates on Facebook or on www.weather.gov.

[Mugatu]

I think one problem with meteorologists today is their over-reliance on computer models. They all look at the same models and then regurgitate that info back to the viewers as "MY severe weather team super duper doppler 5000 forecast".
The models are getting very good for things like hurricane tracks (they predicted the highly unusual westward turn back towards the US for Hurricane Sandy), but they still struggle with winter storms.

The meteorologists don't seem to have the guts to predict something a bit different then the models show. Like based on past history, the rain/snow line always seems to go further north than they predict in this area. Even when current conditions are showing that things won't play out as predicted (like Saturday, it was already 32 degrees and rising in the early morning and the radar showed a dry slot forming over Pittsburgh) they are hesitant to update the forecast. The NWS Pittsburgh got lit up on twitter yesterday when it was obvious that this was going to be a rain event, but it took them quite awhile to update the forecast and drop the winter storm warning.

One of the best examples I remember of a meteorologist going out on a limb was during Hurricane Charley when I lived in Orlando. A local weatherman named Tom Terry watched the storm movement and defied the NHC track which had Charley hitting Tampa. He told everyone that storm was making a right turn sooner and would come directly over Orlando instead, bringing 100mph wind gusts to the city, and that is exactly what happened. I wish more forecasters would do stuff like this.

[Goinback2011]

Originally Posted by Mugatu

One of the best examples I remember of a meteorologist going out on a limb was during Hurricane Charley when I lived in Orlando. A local weatherman named Tom Terry watched the storm movement and defied the NHC track which had Charley hitting Tampa. He told everyone that storm was making a right turn sooner and would come directly over Orlando instead, bringing 100mph wind gusts to the city, and that is exactly what happened. I wish more forecasters would do stuff like this.

I was in Tampa during that time. We got no rain or wind due to the sharp right turn in the track. My understanding is the track changed suddenly when that relatively small storm passed over an area with warmer sea surface temperatures. The forward speed increased suddenly, as did the winds inside the core, causing the veer to the NE.

Historically most storms coming north along the west coast of FL follow a similar path and never make it to Tampa Bay. Those far enough away from the coast to avoid the warm pockets of SSTs hit the panhandle or turn into the Big Bend area.

[tyovan4]

Originally Posted by guy2073

If it was a rain event no one would care or watch.

We could see dumpsters floating through the South Hills though.

Originally Posted by gg

Our moron governor closed the turnpike to trucks. So overblown.

Wolf is wrong about many things, but this was the right call.
The morons are the truckers who continue to try to drive even when conditions are too dangerous - and they end up killing someone, or they end up jack knifing and completely blocking the road for EVERYONE.

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Yes. I’m near Bellefonte at the moment. Around 3” so far.

I hope that you're not there to visit a 'guest of the Commonwealth' - one of my friends was a guest for 5 years and I was there for multiple visits.. at least everyone at Benner was surprisingly friendly.

[bradjl2009]

It looked like there was 3 inches here in Bellevue yesterday, which actually surprised me with how much rain there was all day. It was coming down very hard here at about 4 AM.

[Tractor Face]

"One of the best examples I remember of a meteorologist going out on a limb was during Hurricane Charley when I lived in Orlando. A local weatherman named Tom Terry watched the storm movement and defied the NHC track which had Charley hitting Tampa. He told everyone that storm was making a right turn sooner and would come directly over Orlando instead, bringing 100mph wind gusts to the city, and that is exactly what happened. I wish more forecasters would do stuff like this."

I'd like to see more of this. People would be more abt to follow their favorite weather person. Competition might breed better predictions. On a related note, Hurricane Charley was one of the reasons we stopped vacationing on Captiva Island, more specifically South Seas Plantation. It ripped out the foliage and trees.

[gg]

Originally Posted by tyovan4

Wolf is wrong about many things, but this was the right call.

Can't agree. You tell everyone the Turnpike may be closed to commercial traffic and then see if it is needed to be closed. In this case it wasn't even close to needed to be closed. Ridiculous. Tons of money lost on that closure. No reason for it. A dusting at best. This country is going nuts really. Way over the top on everything to the point of stupid.

[Tractor Face]

Originally Posted by gg

Can't agree. You tell everyone the Turnpike may be closed to commercial traffic and then see if it is needed to be closed. In this case it wasn't even close to needed to be closed. Ridiculous. Tons of money lost on that closure. No reason for it. A dusting at best. This country is going nuts really. Way over the top on everything to the point of stupid.

I agree, absolutely ridiculous overreaction.