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Old 07-17-2019, 05:40 PM
 
Location: Cleveland
570 posts, read 321,099 times
Reputation: 848

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Quote:
Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather View Post
I thought the city of Pittsburgh was 33 years old median age? Or do u mean overall metro ages? If that’s the case there is a huge difference there. It’s interesting to me that the small towns are increasing there. I read an article that Newark Ohio just passed 50,000 residents. It is a good 30 plus mile drive out from Columbus one way. The economy has to be strong there. Then you have zanesville 30 miles beyond that and in decline.

It would be like Allegheny county growing and then far out suburb towns like butler, Washington and greensburg growing as well. Even growth reaching out as far as Weirton. I dunno man I think growth is always better than stagnation or decline. I’d love to see that growth here. The Pittsburgh area has the space and the towns they just need the people moving here
Yeah, those were metro numbers from another website - for both cities. Not sure what year, granted today the census data shows its not as big of a difference.

I agree with your later post about timelines. I think a lot of us get conditioned to quick change due to the rate of technological change we've become accustomed to. But population changes take a long time in most cases. Most of the rustbelt cities will be flatlining for the next couple of decades, IMO. And by flatlining, I'm thinking it may be a 1% increase or decrease over that time, whereas Columbus is projected to go up by 30%.
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Old 07-17-2019, 05:55 PM
 
7,747 posts, read 4,609,066 times
Reputation: 8471
Quote:
Originally Posted by erieguy View Post
Even easier, just make the area more desirable so people want to live where they work. More people, more tax revenue.
You must have me confused with someone who cares about population growth. Pittsburghís tax revenue has been going up without population growth or tax increase.
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Old 07-17-2019, 06:19 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
5,932 posts, read 7,054,835 times
Reputation: 8717
Quote:
Originally Posted by gladhands View Post
Shoot this into my veins
More and more people find me just a joy to be around.
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Old 07-17-2019, 06:28 PM
 
Location: Weirton, W. Va.
342 posts, read 129,175 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by 216facts View Post
Yeah, those were metro numbers from another website - for both cities. Not sure what year, granted today the census data shows its not as big of a difference.

I agree with your later post about timelines. I think a lot of us get conditioned to quick change due to the rate of technological change we've become accustomed to. But population changes take a long time in most cases. Most of the rustbelt cities will be flatlining for the next couple of decades, IMO. And by flatlining, I'm thinking it may be a 1% increase or decrease over that time, whereas Columbus is projected to go up by 30%.
Franklin County (Columbus) has grown by 241,322 residents since the year 2000. That county grew by 18.5 percent population in 18 years.

If Allegheny County could grow by 18.5 percent between now and the year 2038 it would add roughly 220,000 residents over that time period. The Population of Allegheny County would be 1,437,240 in the year 2038. Just above the 1980 official census numbers. That is the county adding a net gain of 12,222 residents a year.

I will be generous and say the city gets half of that growth. The population of the City of Pittsburgh would jump from 300,000 to 410,000 in 18 years. If the city would only get 30 percent of that growth the population would be 366,000 in 18 years, just below 369,000 number in 1990.

There is no question it takes a long time for bigger cities like Pittsburgh to feel growth and see it. 2,000 people a year would help but it would take 100 years at that rate to add 220,000 residents. It needs to be more.

Peduto wants to add 20,000 residents in a decade to Pittsburgh. The county would probably have to add 5,000 residents a year on average for 10 years to reach that goal. With a good portion choosing the city as opposed to the suburbs. It isnít impossible, but that would be difficult.

Itís so easy to lose perspective with technology but it takes years and in most cases decades for that amount of growth, just because it is so many people.

A city like Wheeling WV or where I live in Weirton an addition of 2,000 or 3,000 residents over a decade would have a huge impact. Just because these metros are so small. It would also have a moderate impact on a Youngstown or Erie PA. However a city like Pittsburgh or Cleveland it wouldnít be as noticeable. It would be good, but you need huge numbers to feel impacts on the public policy and housing.
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Old 07-17-2019, 06:45 PM
 
Location: Weirton, W. Va.
342 posts, read 129,175 times
Reputation: 217
And again that would be the county adding 12,200 residents for the next 18 years on average starting today to return the county to a higher population than it was 58 years earlier by the year 2038.

That is pretty sobering when you see how much the growth would be and how long it would take. That would be gangbusters growth for Pittsburgh and worthy of front page news.
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Old 07-17-2019, 07:10 PM
 
Location: Downtown Cranberry Twp.
8,776 posts, read 5,457,495 times
Reputation: 2041
Quote:
Originally Posted by gladhands View Post
You must have me confused with someone who cares about population growth. Pittsburgh’s tax revenue has been going up without population growth or tax increase.
Nope, and didn’t imply you want more population growth, but making the area more desirable would increase population and tax revenue, whereas a tax on those who don’t live where they work isn’t happening.

Last edited by erieguy; 07-17-2019 at 07:29 PM..
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Old 07-17-2019, 09:26 PM
 
Location: Weirton, W. Va.
342 posts, read 129,175 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by erieguy View Post
Nope, and didnít imply you want more population growth, but making the area more desirable would increase population and tax revenue, whereas a tax on those who donít live where they work isnít happening.
Bingo. This population growth stuff is fascinating to me.

A lot of folks just donít understand how complicated it is. Peduto wants to grow Pittsburghís population without being able to annex other municipalities. If I recall 20,000 was the number. To do that in 10 years the Pittsburgh metro would need a positive net growth each year for 10 years straight of around 7,500 residents. You would have to account for the percentage that would choose to live in a suburban county like butler or Westmoreland. Then account for those that choose Allegheny county but not the city and then the percentage that choose the city. So unless the Pittsburgh metro adds a positive of 75,000 residents from 2020-2030 the likelihood of the city adding 20,000 residents isnít close to realistic. It would also mean the suburban counties would all be breaking even and showing a few hundreds in growth. Beaver, Westmoreland and Washington would be joining butler as posting small growth.

What are the chances this decade of that happening?
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Old 07-18-2019, 05:22 AM
 
77 posts, read 41,006 times
Reputation: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather View Post
Bingo. This population growth stuff is fascinating to me.

A lot of folks just donít understand how complicated it is. Peduto wants to grow Pittsburghís population without being able to annex other municipalities. If I recall 20,000 was the number. To do that in 10 years the Pittsburgh metro would need a positive net growth each year for 10 years straight of around 7,500 residents. You would have to account for the percentage that would choose to live in a suburban county like butler or Westmoreland. Then account for those that choose Allegheny county but not the city and then the percentage that choose the city. So unless the Pittsburgh metro adds a positive of 75,000 residents from 2020-2030 the likelihood of the city adding 20,000 residents isnít close to realistic. It would also mean the suburban counties would all be breaking even and showing a few hundreds in growth. Beaver, Westmoreland and Washington would be joining butler as posting small growth.

What are the chances this decade of that happening?
Well as I posted earlier, I predict Washington to have a very slight uptick this census, Beaver is doing slightly better than before but still will decline slightly over 4%, we'll see what happens in the future there though, and Westmoreland has been seeming to be struggling this decade as a whole, as of now I would say it has a little ways to go before it can actually grow.
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Old 07-18-2019, 06:01 AM
 
Location: Weirton, W. Va.
342 posts, read 129,175 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandritz6 View Post
Well as I posted earlier, I predict Washington to have a very slight uptick this census, Beaver is doing slightly better than before but still will decline slightly over 4%, we'll see what happens in the future there though, and Westmoreland has been seeming to be struggling this decade as a whole, as of now I would say it has a little ways to go before it can actually grow.
I agree with you. Like I said, if Pittsburgh is able to add 20,000 residents and increase its population you are probably looking at an entire metro area increase of 55,000 to 80,000. I know that is a big range but that has to take into account the in migration that wonít choose the city limits. It could be a higher percentage or it could be lower. And the more deaths than births dynamic is no longer a factor.

My thought it is if the metro was adding that amount of people you would probably see more housing developments popping up in the suburbs competing for those residents. Pittsburgh city would have to keep pace and probably add more units than the overall suburbs. This is where people would really start to complain about the abundance of municipalities and seeing how they most likely would compete with each other than work together.

If the Allegheny County was growing at 10 or 12 percent itself over a decade, itís safe to say the city is adding thousands and thousands of residents. But right now that amount of growth seems unattainable anywhere in the region.

Again if growth was able to reach what a metro like Columbus is adding over 18 years, you will be seeing the outlier towns of Greensburg, Washington and butler city growing as well. It would probably strong enough to have a positive impact on my town, Weirton as well.

Population is so hard to predict. Pittsburgh is a large city. I just think itís hard for many people to wrap their heads around how much growth and how many people would have to be coming to the region year after year in 20 years to even get close to where we were in size back in 1990 or 1980. The number would have to be huge every year sustained for 20 years.
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Old 07-18-2019, 09:17 AM
 
77 posts, read 41,006 times
Reputation: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather View Post
I agree with you. Like I said, if Pittsburgh is able to add 20,000 residents and increase its population you are probably looking at an entire metro area increase of 55,000 to 80,000. I know that is a big range but that has to take into account the in migration that wonít choose the city limits. It could be a higher percentage or it could be lower. And the more deaths than births dynamic is no longer a factor.

My thought it is if the metro was adding that amount of people you would probably see more housing developments popping up in the suburbs competing for those residents. Pittsburgh city would have to keep pace and probably add more units than the overall suburbs. This is where people would really start to complain about the abundance of municipalities and seeing how they most likely would compete with each other than work together.

If the Allegheny County was growing at 10 or 12 percent itself over a decade, itís safe to say the city is adding thousands and thousands of residents. But right now that amount of growth seems unattainable anywhere in the region.

Again if growth was able to reach what a metro like Columbus is adding over 18 years, you will be seeing the outlier towns of Greensburg, Washington and butler city growing as well. It would probably strong enough to have a positive impact on my town, Weirton as well.

Population is so hard to predict. Pittsburgh is a large city. I just think itís hard for many people to wrap their heads around how much growth and how many people would have to be coming to the region year after year in 20 years to even get close to where we were in size back in 1990 or 1980. The number would have to be huge every year sustained for 20 years.
Weirton is on the western side of the metro, so that may be why it is trying to make a comeback like Beaver County. Butler and Washington counties though, I don't think the growth is in Butler and Washington. Butler it is mostly Cranberry area, I predict Cranberry's population in 2020 to be about 32,463, up another 4,365 from 2010 or 13.5%, Jackson will probably have an increase too, and Adams (though not quite as much last decade), maybe Buffalo slightly too. Washington, its slight uptick, will come from growth in Peters and Canonsburg area, I'm not sure what is going on in Westmoreland right now, just aren't a lot of strong growth drive factors I guess.
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