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Old 07-13-2019, 11:03 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
6,329 posts, read 8,612,469 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zalewskimm View Post
It has. I rarely recall a flash flood alert 20-40 years ago. It seems like every rain today comes with a flash flood alert. It's crazy.
The weather throughout this decade in general seems to be featuring much more extremes than what I can remember from the 90's and 2000's.
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Old 07-13-2019, 01:16 PM
 
Location: Weirton, W. Va.
615 posts, read 339,206 times
Reputation: 264
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandritz6 View Post
My rough estimates go as follow:

2010 2020 Change # Change %

Butler County 183,862 189,116 +5,064 +2.8%
Washington Co. 207,820 208,066 + 246 +0.1%
Armstrong Co. 68,941 64,838 -4,103 -6.3%
Beaver Co. 170,539 163,882 -6,657 -4.1%
Fayette Co. 136,606 129,392 -7,214 -5.6%
Allegheny Co. 1,223,348 1,214,741 -8,607 -0.7%
Westmoreland Co. 365,169 348,620 -16,549 -4.8%
Pittsburgh City 305,704 292,361 -13,343 -4.6%
Metro Area 2,356,285 2,318,655 -37,630 -1.6%
Pennsylvania 12,702,379 12,828,731 +126,352 +1.0%

As you have said, Butler will definitely increase the most, Washington will have a slight uptick, Allegheny and Beaver are still losing but not as much as before, Armstrong and Fayette are continuing steep declines and Westmoreland is losing a little more than before. Pittsburgh city is doing a little better than before too but it still will be hard to offset the losses in some of the bad sections, and as you can see most of Pennsylvania's growth will be from the central to east side, with pockets around Pittsburgh.
^ this

Of all the population talk and with less than six months to go I can totally agree with everything you stated. Those census numbers appear realistic. If those are the numbers or if they are better for the city and the county that is a huge victory. No question.

I don’t want to see the city drop below 300K and the county drop below 1.2 million in the same census. That would be a punch in the gut. Doubly worse would be that and the metro dropping below 2.3 million. If that happens in this census it is likely the county losses are pushing 40K and the city losses are over 20k. And Westmoreland losses will be much worse.
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Old 07-13-2019, 02:44 PM
 
79 posts, read 71,361 times
Reputation: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather View Post
^ this

Of all the population talk and with less than six months to go I can totally agree with everything you stated. Those census numbers appear realistic. If those are the numbers or if they are better for the city and the county that is a huge victory. No question.

I don’t want to see the city drop below 300K and the county drop below 1.2 million in the same census. That would be a punch in the gut. Doubly worse would be that and the metro dropping below 2.3 million. If that happens in this census it is likely the county losses are pushing 40K and the city losses are over 20k. And Westmoreland losses will be much worse.
Yeah I think Allegheny County is doing well enough overall for it to not lose too much. Here are its 30 largest municpalities in 2010 and then 2020 so you may determine where they stand.



Allegheny County 1,225,365

1. Pittsburgh (city) 305,704
2. Penn Hills Township 42,329
3. Mount Lebanon Township 33,137
4. Bethel Park 32,313
5. Ross Township 31,105
6. Shaler Township 28,757
7. McCandless Township 28,457
8. Monroeville 28,386
9. Plum 27,126
10. Moon Township 24,185

11. West Mifflin 20,313
12. Baldwin 19,767
13. McKeesport 19,731
14. Upper St. Clair Township 19,229
15. Hampton Township 18,363
16. Scott Township 17,024
17. Wilkinsburg 15,882
18. South Fayette Township 14,416
19. North Fayette Township 13,934
20. Whitehall 13,944

21. Franklin Park 13,470
22. Robinson Township 13,354
23. South Park Township 13,406
24. Elizabeth Township 13,271
25. West Deer Township 11,771
26. Pine Township 11,497
27. Richland Township 11,100
28. Munhall 11,406
29. Jefferson Hills 10,619
30. Harrison Township 10,461

Here's 2020:

Allegheny County 1,214,741 (1,225,365) -8,607 -0.7%

1(1). Pittsburgh (city) 292,361 (305,704)
2(2). Penn Hills Township 38,682 (42,329) -3,647 -9.4%
3(4). Mount Lebanon Township 32,084 (33,137) -1,053 -3.3%
4(3). Bethel Park 32,486 (32,313) +173 +0.5%
5(5). Ross Township 30,607 (31,105) -498 -1.6%
6 (6). McCandless Township 28,301 (28,457) -156 -0.6%
7 (7). Shaler Township 27,766 (28,757) -991 -3.6%
8 (8). Monroeville 27,433 (28,386) -953 -3.5%
9(9). Plum 27,392 (27,126) +266 +1.0%
10(10). Moon Township 25,602 (24,185) +1,417 +5.5%

11(12). West Mifflin 19,538 (20,313) -775 -4.0%
12(13). Baldwin 19,291 (19,767) -476 -2.5%
13(14). Mckeesport 18,625 (19,731) -1,106 -5.9%
14(11). Upper St. Clair Township 19,830 (19,229) +601 +3.0%
15(15). Hampton Township 18,285 (18,363) -78 -0.4%
16(16). Scott Township 16,338 (17,024) -686 -4.2%
17(18). Wilkinsburg 15,178 (15,930) -752 -5.0%
18(17). South Fayette Township 15,963 (14,416) +1,547 +9.7%
19(19). North Fayette Township 15,017 (13,934) +1,083 +7.2%
20(21). Whitehall 13,447 (13,949) (-502) -3.7%

21(20). Franklin Park 14,838 (13,470) +1,368 +9.2%
22(22). Robinson Township 13,741 (13,354) +387 +2.8%
23(24). South Park Township 13,281 (13,416) -135 -1.0%
24(25). Elizabeth Township 13,039 (13,271) -232 -1.8%
25(26). West Deer Township 11,973 (11,771) +202 +1.7%
26(23). Pine Township 13,711 (11,497) +2,214 +16.2%
27(28). Richland Township 11,358 (11,100) +258 +2.3%
28(29). Munhall 10,881 (11,406) -525 -4.8%
29(27). Jefferson Hills 11,393 (10,619) +774 +6.8%
30(30). Harrison Township 10,286 (10,461) -175 -1.7%





Top Gainers not mentioned:
Ohio Township 6,356 (+1,599, +25.2%)
Marshall Township 9,282 (+2,367, +25.5%)
Collier Township 8,355 (+1,275, +15.3%)
Findlay Township 5,876 (+816, +13.9%)
Kennedy Township 8,134 (+462, +5.7%)
Oakmont 6,488 (+185, +2.9%)
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Old 07-13-2019, 02:54 PM
 
Location: Weirton, W. Va.
615 posts, read 339,206 times
Reputation: 264
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandritz6 View Post
Yeah I think Allegheny County is doing well enough overall for it to not lose too much. Here are its 30 largest municpalities in 2010 and then 2020 so you may determine where they stand.



Allegheny County 1,225,365

1. Pittsburgh (city) 305,704
2. Penn Hills Township 42,329
3. Mount Lebanon Township 33,137
4. Bethel Park 32,313
5. Ross Township 31,105
6. Shaler Township 28,757
7. McCandless Township 28,457
8. Monroeville 28,386
9. Plum 27,126
10. Moon Township 24,185

11. West Mifflin 20,313
12. Baldwin 19,767
13. McKeesport 19,731
14. Upper St. Clair Township 19,229
15. Hampton Township 18,363
16. Scott Township 17,024
17. Wilkinsburg 15,882
18. South Fayette Township 14,416
19. North Fayette Township 13,934
20. Whitehall 13,944

21. Franklin Park 13,470
22. Robinson Township 13,354
23. South Park Township 13,406
24. Elizabeth Township 13,271
25. West Deer Township 11,771
26. Pine Township 11,497
27. Richland Township 11,100
28. Munhall 11,406
29. Jefferson Hills 10,619
30. Harrison Township 10,461

Here's 2020:

Allegheny County 1,214,741 (1,225,365) -8,607 -0.7%

1(1). Pittsburgh (city) 292,361 (305,704)
2(2). Penn Hills Township 38,682 (42,329) -3,647 -9.4%
3(4). Mount Lebanon Township 32,084 (33,137) -1,053 -3.3%
4(3). Bethel Park 32,486 (32,313) +173 +0.5%
5(5). Ross Township 30,607 (31,105) -498 -1.6%
6 (6). McCandless Township 28,301 (28,457) -156 -0.6%
7 (7). Shaler Township 27,766 (28,757) -991 -3.6%
8 (8). Monroeville 27,433 (28,386) -953 -3.5%
9(9). Plum 27,392 (27,126) +266 +1.0%
10(10). Moon Township 25,602 (24,185) +1,417 +5.5%

11(12). West Mifflin 19,538 (20,313) -775 -4.0%
12(13). Baldwin 19,291 (19,767) -476 -2.5%
13(14). Mckeesport 18,625 (19,731) -1,106 -5.9%
14(11). Upper St. Clair Township 19,830 (19,229) +601 +3.0%
15(15). Hampton Township 18,285 (18,363) -78 -0.4%
16(16). Scott Township 16,338 (17,024) -686 -4.2%
17(18). Wilkinsburg 15,178 (15,930) -752 -5.0%
18(17). South Fayette Township 15,963 (14,416) +1,547 +9.7%
19(19). North Fayette Township 15,017 (13,934) +1,083 +7.2%
20(21). Whitehall 13,447 (13,949) (-502) -3.7%

21(20). Franklin Park 14,838 (13,470) +1,368 +9.2%
22(22). Robinson Township 13,741 (13,354) +387 +2.8%
23(24). South Park Township 13,281 (13,416) -135 -1.0%
24(25). Elizabeth Township 13,039 (13,271) -232 -1.8%
25(26). West Deer Township 11,973 (11,771) +202 +1.7%
26(23). Pine Township 13,711 (11,497) +2,214 +16.2%
27(28). Richland Township 11,358 (11,100) +258 +2.3%
28(29). Munhall 10,881 (11,406) -525 -4.8%
29(27). Jefferson Hills 11,393 (10,619) +774 +6.8%
30(30). Harrison Township 10,286 (10,461) -175 -1.7%





Top Gainers not mentioned:
Ohio Township 6,356 (+1,599, +25.2%)
Marshall Township 9,282 (+2,367, +25.5%)
Collier Township 8,355 (+1,275, +15.3%)
Findlay Township 5,876 (+816, +13.9%)
Kennedy Township 8,134 (+462, +5.7%)
Oakmont 6,488 (+185, +2.9%)
What interesting is the growth in Allegheny County appears toFollow the same suit as butler and Washington County. The I-79 corridor is where the Pittsburgh metro growth appears to be concentrated in all three counties. I-79 touches a lot of those municipalities or It is a quick 5-10 minute drive to an on-ramp.

Is this because 79 is the best highway with access to the turnpike, 80, 70 and the airport?

It seems people like the good highway access to get places.
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Old 07-13-2019, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Marshall-Shadeland, Pittsburgh, PA
32,168 posts, read 74,126,965 times
Reputation: 18354
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandritz6 View Post
Yeah I think Allegheny County is doing well enough overall for it to not lose too much. Here are its 30 largest municpalities in 2010 and then 2020 so you may determine where they stand.



Allegheny County 1,225,365

1. Pittsburgh (city) 305,704
2. Penn Hills Township 42,329
3. Mount Lebanon Township 33,137
4. Bethel Park 32,313
5. Ross Township 31,105
6. Shaler Township 28,757
7. McCandless Township 28,457
8. Monroeville 28,386
9. Plum 27,126
10. Moon Township 24,185

11. West Mifflin 20,313
12. Baldwin 19,767
13. McKeesport 19,731
14. Upper St. Clair Township 19,229
15. Hampton Township 18,363
16. Scott Township 17,024
17. Wilkinsburg 15,882
18. South Fayette Township 14,416
19. North Fayette Township 13,934
20. Whitehall 13,944

21. Franklin Park 13,470
22. Robinson Township 13,354
23. South Park Township 13,406
24. Elizabeth Township 13,271
25. West Deer Township 11,771
26. Pine Township 11,497
27. Richland Township 11,100
28. Munhall 11,406
29. Jefferson Hills 10,619
30. Harrison Township 10,461

Here's 2020:

Allegheny County 1,214,741 (1,225,365) -8,607 -0.7%

1(1). Pittsburgh (city) 292,361 (305,704)
2(2). Penn Hills Township 38,682 (42,329) -3,647 -9.4%
3(4). Mount Lebanon Township 32,084 (33,137) -1,053 -3.3%
4(3). Bethel Park 32,486 (32,313) +173 +0.5%
5(5). Ross Township 30,607 (31,105) -498 -1.6%
6 (6). McCandless Township 28,301 (28,457) -156 -0.6%
7 (7). Shaler Township 27,766 (28,757) -991 -3.6%
8 (8). Monroeville 27,433 (28,386) -953 -3.5%
9(9). Plum 27,392 (27,126) +266 +1.0%
10(10). Moon Township 25,602 (24,185) +1,417 +5.5%

11(12). West Mifflin 19,538 (20,313) -775 -4.0%
12(13). Baldwin 19,291 (19,767) -476 -2.5%
13(14). Mckeesport 18,625 (19,731) -1,106 -5.9%
14(11). Upper St. Clair Township 19,830 (19,229) +601 +3.0%
15(15). Hampton Township 18,285 (18,363) -78 -0.4%
16(16). Scott Township 16,338 (17,024) -686 -4.2%
17(18). Wilkinsburg 15,178 (15,930) -752 -5.0%
18(17). South Fayette Township 15,963 (14,416) +1,547 +9.7%
19(19). North Fayette Township 15,017 (13,934) +1,083 +7.2%
20(21). Whitehall 13,447 (13,949) (-502) -3.7%

21(20). Franklin Park 14,838 (13,470) +1,368 +9.2%
22(22). Robinson Township 13,741 (13,354) +387 +2.8%
23(24). South Park Township 13,281 (13,416) -135 -1.0%
24(25). Elizabeth Township 13,039 (13,271) -232 -1.8%
25(26). West Deer Township 11,973 (11,771) +202 +1.7%
26(23). Pine Township 13,711 (11,497) +2,214 +16.2%
27(28). Richland Township 11,358 (11,100) +258 +2.3%
28(29). Munhall 10,881 (11,406) -525 -4.8%
29(27). Jefferson Hills 11,393 (10,619) +774 +6.8%
30(30). Harrison Township 10,286 (10,461) -175 -1.7%





Top Gainers not mentioned:
Ohio Township 6,356 (+1,599, +25.2%)
Marshall Township 9,282 (+2,367, +25.5%)
Collier Township 8,355 (+1,275, +15.3%)
Findlay Township 5,876 (+816, +13.9%)
Kennedy Township 8,134 (+462, +5.7%)
Oakmont 6,488 (+185, +2.9%)
Wow! You’re really passionate about this! Thanks for the rundown!

I mostly agree.

I think Pittsburgh stays above 300,000 in 2020 but just barely (maybe 300,300 or so). I don’t know if I foresee growth that high in Kennedy Township or Collier Township. I also think Ohio Township will have slowed down from 2010 to 2020. I think Harrison Township will have lost many more people.
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Old 07-13-2019, 04:37 PM
 
79 posts, read 71,361 times
Reputation: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelCityRising View Post
Wow! You’re really passionate about this! Thanks for the rundown!

I mostly agree.

I think Pittsburgh stays above 300,000 in 2020 but just barely (maybe 300,300 or so). I don’t know if I foresee growth that high in Kennedy Township or Collier Township. I also think Ohio Township will have slowed down from 2010 to 2020. I think Harrison Township will have lost many more people.
Yeah it is hard to say overall what will happen. I think Collier still has lots of land that to build on, Kennedy does seem more like postwar suburb and I was surprised to see its growth estimated that high but I think they recently had like a couple fields left that they filled up with townhouses and apartments. Ohio has still been building many new homes but I do have it slightly lower that what the estimates are saying because some are retirement homes, Harrison built a new home and townhome subdivision in the further end out by the park, so that is why I feel its decline will be much less this time around.
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Old 07-13-2019, 04:39 PM
 
79 posts, read 71,361 times
Reputation: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather View Post
What interesting is the growth in Allegheny County appears toFollow the same suit as butler and Washington County. The I-79 corridor is where the Pittsburgh metro growth appears to be concentrated in all three counties. I-79 touches a lot of those municipalities or It is a quick 5-10 minute drive to an on-ramp.

Is this because 79 is the best highway with access to the turnpike, 80, 70 and the airport?

It seems people like the good highway access to get places.
Yeah it seems like with the most other highway access and job economy around those areas, that is where the majority of the growth is.
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Old 07-13-2019, 06:46 PM
 
Location: Weirton, W. Va.
615 posts, read 339,206 times
Reputation: 264
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelCityRising View Post
Wow! You’re really passionate about this! Thanks for the rundown!

I mostly agree.

I think Pittsburgh stays above 300,000 in 2020 but just barely (maybe 300,300 or so). I don’t know if I foresee growth that high in Kennedy Township or Collier Township. I also think Ohio Township will have slowed down from 2010 to 2020. I think Harrison Township will have lost many more people.

I can see the growth in Collier. Not sure about Kennedy, but there has always been a little growth there for decades now. The I-79 corridor from Zeilinople through cranberry down through Allegheny County and ending about the meadows casino I’m Washington county is where the population growth and new housing is for the most part.

Out here in Weirton they are building new housing plans and renovation of existing housing. Down the route 2 in wheeling people are buying buildings and property up quickly. So what is happening to a lesser extent in the Ohio valley is going on along the 79 corridor in Pittsburgh. I think the 2020s will be a good decade for Weirton and the panhandle. The gas drilling is the reason and small manufacturers are taking property along the River and in 3 springs business park off of 22. There is a noticeable amount of traffic and people that were not here 4 years ago.

I hope you are right about Pittsburgh but my gut is telling me the low 290s. I hope not much worse. Seeing the city below 300, the county drop below 1.2,million and the metro drop below 2.3 million would be a punch in the gut for all happening at once in the same census

Quote:
Originally Posted by sandritz6 View Post
Yeah it seems like with the most other highway access and job economy around those areas, that is where the majority of the growth is.
Agreed.

Scott Township has always been a head scratcher for me as to why it declines. The school district is good. It has good access, it’s safe and pretty much built all of the way out. Any ideas on why it doesn’t do well?

The other one is the Mt. Lebanon decline. It seems like the only complete Pittsburgh suburb. It has nice houses, walkable, rail transit, excellent schools, good housing. Why the decline.
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Old 07-13-2019, 07:21 PM
 
79 posts, read 71,361 times
Reputation: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather View Post
I can see the growth in Collier. Not sure about Kennedy, but there has always been a little growth there for decades now. The I-79 corridor from Zeilinople through cranberry down through Allegheny County and ending about the meadows casino I’m Washington county is where the population growth and new housing is for the most part.

Out here in Weirton they are building new housing plans and renovation of existing housing. Down the route 2 in wheeling people are buying buildings and property up quickly. So what is happening to a lesser extent in the Ohio valley is going on along the 79 corridor in Pittsburgh. I think the 2020s will be a good decade for Weirton and the panhandle. The gas drilling is the reason and small manufacturers are taking property along the River and in 3 springs business park off of 22. There is a noticeable amount of traffic and people that were not here 4 years ago.

I hope you are right about Pittsburgh but my gut is telling me the low 290s. I hope not much worse. Seeing the city below 300, the county drop below 1.2,million and the metro drop below 2.3 million would be a punch in the gut for all happening at once in the same census



Agreed.

Scott Township has always been a head scratcher for me as to why it declines. The school district is good. It has good access, it’s safe and pretty much built all of the way out. Any ideas on why it doesn’t do well?

The other one is the Mt. Lebanon decline. It seems like the only complete Pittsburgh suburb. It has nice houses, walkable, rail transit, excellent schools, good housing. Why the decline.
Yeah both seem like nice areas that probably have very good migration rates, but they are like completely built out and still probably have more deaths that births.
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Old 07-14-2019, 08:58 PM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
90,351 posts, read 115,686,197 times
Reputation: 35920
OK, I've been following this thread, but not posting because, well, reasons. However, a couple of things I just have to say:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moby Hick View Post
I don't think mediocrity characterizes my experience on Pittsburgh. I've prospered. It's been very good to me. I see plenty of threats from politics, but they are all because of national politics, not local.
Pittsburgh and Pennsylvania in general have long been known for corrupt politics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj View Post
If it weren't for so many old people dying, Pittsburgh would already be gaining population. Either way, I assume at the 2030 census, Pittsburgh will have about 330,000 people.
OK, here's the post that really brought me into this conversation. As you can see, I joined CD in 2007. As the time got closer to the 2010 census, people on here were making all sorts of predictions about how Pittsburgh/the MSA would have increased in population because high tech. Then when the results came out in early 2011 showing otherwise, someone actually posted (paraphrasing) "wait until 2020"! Now the 2020 census is near, and we're seeing "wait until 2030"? How many decades are going to have to pass until people accept that Pittsburgh may not be growing?
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