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Old 12-22-2019, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Washington County, PA
4,081 posts, read 4,027,337 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bradjl2009 View Post
I doubt it, but you have to remember this this forum has someone living in West Virginia openly rooting for the city to fail as they live in a county that the Census is estimating to have lost 5% of its population in this decade.
That same poster actively roots against the Steelers as well in that thread... Sounds like a troll to me
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Old 12-22-2019, 05:29 PM
 
Location: Wendy Bell’s Happy Place :)
1,763 posts, read 474,579 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by runpens1 View Post
So if the metro area will still be that high, do you think Butler and Washington counties growth will be much higher and the Westmoreland losses aren't as bad as what the estimates are saying?
I think beaver won’t be as bad as expected and probably a wash. Butler and Washington will probably add enough residents to just keep us over 2.3 million. I expect westmoreland to lose the most of all.

My predictions for Allegheny County and the City would be the best census in decades for both. I just don’t see how you can add more people without job growth, in migration and older residents. It just doesn’t add up or make sense. I don’t think there is enough housing available to add thousands of residents in desirable neighborhoods even if they wanted to.
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Old 12-22-2019, 06:51 PM
 
80 posts, read 31,436 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Independentthinking83 View Post
I think beaver won’t be as bad as expected and probably a wash. Butler and Washington will probably add enough residents to just keep us over 2.3 million. I expect westmoreland to lose the most of all.

My predictions for Allegheny County and the City would be the best census in decades for both. I just don’t see how you can add more people without job growth, in migration and older residents. It just doesn’t add up or make sense. I don’t think there is enough housing available to add thousands of residents in desirable neighborhoods even if they wanted to.
the population in 2010 was a follows:

Allegheny 1,223,348 down 58,318 from 2000 (-4.8%)
Armstrong 68,941 down 3,441 from 2000 (-5.0%)
Beaver 170,539 down 10,873 from 2000 (-6.4%)
Butler 183,862 up 9,779 from 2000 (+5.3%)
Fayette 136,606 down 12,039 from 2000 (-8.8)
Washington 207,820 up 4,923 from 2000 (+2.4)
Westmoreland 365,169 only down 4,824 from 2000 (-1.3)
MSA 2,356,285 down 74,573 from 2000 (-3.2)

My predictions for 2020 so far:

Allegheny 1,196,485 down 26,863 from 2010 (-2.3%)
Armstrong 64,758 down 4,183 from 2010 (-6.7%)
Beaver 164,171 down 6,368 from 2010 (-3.9%)
Butler 190,716 up 6,854 from 2010 (+3.6%)
Washington 209,266 up 1,446 from 2010 (+0.7%)

Not sure about Fayette and Westmoreland just yet. The estimates for Fayette say it is doing not great but somehow better than 2010. Westmoreland, not sure, maybe because people still seem to be moving in to North Huntingdon area, if it wasn't for that I might say it would see its biggest drop ever, but not sure, Butler and Washington are still growing but not quite as big as 2010, Beaver, like Allegheny is doing slightly better with job growth bringing more people into the area, but still has too many older residents and not quite enough housing growth, and Armstrong I would say the loss would be bigger with more people moving out of rural areas. Pennsylvania's population I predict to be around 12,844,831, up 142,000 (+1.1%) from 2010, which isn't quite as good as from 2000, when it gained over 400,000 and 3.3%. I predict Cumberland, Center, Chester, etc. to be the biggest gainers, and Cambria, Lawrence, etc. to be the biggest losers? What are all you predictions?
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Old 12-22-2019, 10:09 PM
 
Location: Wendy Bell’s Happy Place :)
1,763 posts, read 474,579 times
Reputation: 652
Quote:
Originally Posted by runpens1 View Post
the population in 2010 was a follows:

Allegheny 1,223,348 down 58,318 from 2000 (-4.8%)
Armstrong 68,941 down 3,441 from 2000 (-5.0%)
Beaver 170,539 down 10,873 from 2000 (-6.4%)
Butler 183,862 up 9,779 from 2000 (+5.3%)
Fayette 136,606 down 12,039 from 2000 (-8.8)
Washington 207,820 up 4,923 from 2000 (+2.4)
Westmoreland 365,169 only down 4,824 from 2000 (-1.3)
MSA 2,356,285 down 74,573 from 2000 (-3.2)

My predictions for 2020 so far:

Allegheny 1,196,485 down 26,863 from 2010 (-2.3%)
Armstrong 64,758 down 4,183 from 2010 (-6.7%)
Beaver 164,171 down 6,368 from 2010 (-3.9%)
Butler 190,716 up 6,854 from 2010 (+3.6%)
Washington 209,266 up 1,446 from 2010 (+0.7%)

Not sure about Fayette and Westmoreland just yet. The estimates for Fayette say it is doing not great but somehow better than 2010. Westmoreland, not sure, maybe because people still seem to be moving in to North Huntingdon area, if it wasn't for that I might say it would see its biggest drop ever, but not sure, Butler and Washington are still growing but not quite as big as 2010, Beaver, like Allegheny is doing slightly better with job growth bringing more people into the area, but still has too many older residents and not quite enough housing growth, and Armstrong I would say the loss would be bigger with more people moving out of rural areas. Pennsylvania's population I predict to be around 12,844,831, up 142,000 (+1.1%) from 2010, which isn't quite as good as from 2000, when it gained over 400,000 and 3.3%. I predict Cumberland, Center, Chester, etc. to be the biggest gainers, and Cambria, Lawrence, etc. to be the biggest losers? What are all you predictions?

I think a lot of your estimates seem realistic. Even if you are right on the money, this would be the best census in a long time for the region.

It is so difficult to turn around highly populated counties and cities from losing to gaining population. It’s easier to turn around a county of sub 100,000 population because you don’t need the volume of in migration to set off deaths and losses.

There are literally generations of people missing from the Pittsburgh area due to the steel and coal industry fallout and decline. The 2010 numbers aren’t going to be what grows the population. It is going to be what folks moved here after the 2010 census till now.

I think a lot of folks are wildly optimistic on how much a city neighborhood will grow. Housing is limited across the board. Places like Lawrenceville are already 100 percent built out. Maybe the strip adds a few hundred or a thousand people. That said it is only one neighborhood with 650 residents from the 2010 census. How many people is it realistically going to add? Especially with the limited housing. The math just doesn’t work out.

Thousands and thousands have to move here every year with a high percentage choosing the city or county to live. Do we think neighborhoods like Marshall Shadeland, carrick and Sheridan are stable or gaining? Those are pretty populated residential neighborhoods. They can lose 500-1000 folks each over 10 years pretty easily.

I’m not too familiar with the other counties you mention. What about Mercer County? A good mix of rural and urban. It used to be the political bellwether county for the state.
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Old 12-22-2019, 10:23 PM
 
80 posts, read 31,436 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Independentthinking83 View Post
I think a lot of your estimates seem realistic. Even if you are right on the money, this would be the best census in a long time for the region.

It is so difficult to turn around highly populated counties and cities from losing to gaining population. It’s easier to turn around a county of sub 100,000 population because you don’t need the volume of in migration to set off deaths and losses.

There are literally generations of people missing from the Pittsburgh area due to the steel and coal industry fallout and decline. The 2010 numbers aren’t going to be what grows the population. It is going to be what folks moved here after the 2010 census till now.

I think a lot of folks are wildly optimistic on how much a city neighborhood will grow. Housing is limited across the board. Places like Lawrenceville are already 100 percent built out. Maybe the strip adds a few hundred or a thousand people. That said it is only one neighborhood with 650 residents from the 2010 census. How many people is it realistically going to add? Especially with the limited housing. The math just doesn’t work out.

Thousands and thousands have to move here every year with a high percentage choosing the city or county to live. Do we think neighborhoods like Marshall Shadeland, carrick and Sheridan are stable or gaining? Those are pretty populated residential neighborhoods. They can lose 500-1000 folks each over 10 years pretty easily.

I’m not too familiar with the other counties you mention. What about Mercer County? A good mix of rural and urban. It used to be the political bellwether county for the state.
Yeah Mercer has been like that, with the whole Shenango valley area being the urban portion and the rest of it being rural, kind of like Cambria, with Johnstown compared to the rest of it, but I think it is losing population due to natural decline but not quite as bad as some others, Grove City area is very nice and may see a little modest growth. I think Venango to the east of it is in bad shape though, and may also be among the biggest shrinkers in 2020. What do you see being Westmoreland's population for 2020 though? And Fayette?
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Old 12-23-2019, 03:45 AM
 
2,014 posts, read 872,729 times
Reputation: 1365
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
SO, the latest American Community Survey numbers came out for both Pittsburgh and Allegheny County. Pittsburgh's population has increased substantially from the last estimate of 301,048. It's now up to 303,587 - still below the 305,704 from 2010, but it made up basically half of the net loss in one year. Allegheny County also appears to have grown by around 2,000 for the decade.

At the same time, WESA has noted this data suggests that Pittsburgh is hemmoraging black residents. I mean, check this out:



Keep in mind that back in 2010 Pittsburgh had slightly less than 80,000 black residents. Therefore Pittsburgh's lost something like 9% of its total black population over the course of a single decade.

As I've said in the past, if Pittsburgh loses population this decade, it's entirely attributable to black population loss. The white population is more or less stagnant (almost certainly growing in terms of households) and the Asian/other population is booming). If a few less black people were being displaced, we'd certainly be above 2010 numbers today.
Eh oh well. 70,000 Black residents is still 20,000 more than San Francisco or Seattle has. Minneapolis also has about 70,000.
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Old 12-23-2019, 03:49 AM
 
2,014 posts, read 872,729 times
Reputation: 1365
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independentthinking83 View Post
Interesting isn’t it?

The region has an old population, job growth is non existent, single family home construction is the lowest it’s been here in decades an no in migration of population. Pittsburgh public schools has 6,000 less students in 2019 than in 2010. Pittsburgh is somehow going to overcome all of that and post only losses of 2,000 people.

Do people drive through, carrick, Allentown, beltzhoover, homewood, Sheridan , Marshall Shadeland, Perry hilltop and observatory hill? You can’t tell me with a straight face you dont believe those areas haven’t lost a few thousand people combined since 2010.

The south side boomed in the 2000s. It has more dense and available housing than the coveted Lawrenceville. The southside grew by 15 percent adding 900+ residents from 2000 to 2010. The city still declined overall by 8.6 percent losing 28,000 residents.

The new growth in Lawrenceville and East Liberty is not going to offset losses from elsewhere.

I think 2020 could be the trifecta census. City below 300K, county below 1.2 million and metro below 2.3 million.

The data with the economy, in migration, school enrollment declines and new single family homes construction data don’t fit the narrative the city only loses 2,000 residents.

The whole census estimates thing with Pittsburgh over the decade parallels the 2016 election when folks thought there was no way trump could possibly win, we are becoming more liberal as a country and so forth. Well it caught everybody by surprise. If Pittsburgh loses 20,000 residents or more there will be people totally shocked on here. Even so that would be the lowest the city had declined in decades. Data and estimates don’t match up. Somebody is way off on their calculations. We will see in a few months.
I take it you're a glass half empty kind of person
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:04 AM
 
2,014 posts, read 872,729 times
Reputation: 1365
Quote:
Originally Posted by gg View Post
I am not sure why people are getting so hung up on if the city is gaining or losing a tiny bit of population? We are never going to be some big growth city. IMHO, the most important thing in our city is to have hard working people living in the city and for the city to improve, which is obviously happening. Does anyone have any sort of average income numbers by year for Pittsburgh to see if we are improving, so we can continually see the quality of life increase? Also, how does the huge student population play into those numbers? I could care less about gaining or losing a few hundred people. Meaningless.

If you compare Pittsburgh to Cleveland, we are doing great.

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True, Cleveland is losing population faster than Pittsburgh, but at least Cleveland will never fall below 300,000. They're too high in the 300,000s for that to happen before decline slows and reverses. If Pittsburgh isn't growing, it will fall to 72nd largest by 2025.
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Old 12-23-2019, 05:45 AM
 
Location: Marshall-Shadeland, Pittsburgh, PA
31,441 posts, read 70,477,274 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj View Post
True, Cleveland is losing population faster than Pittsburgh, but at least Cleveland will never fall below 300,000. They're too high in the 300,000s for that to happen before decline slows and reverses. If Pittsburgh isn't growing, it will fall to 72nd largest by 2025.
Yeah. We're currently the 66th-largest city right now, and we'll likely continue to drop in the rankings as the cities just below us are all growing. St. Louis is still sinking quickly and may fall below us during the 2020's, however.

It's surprising how many people in Pittsburgh act like this is some mega-city with millions of people instead of only housing 300,000 people.
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Old 12-23-2019, 06:52 AM
 
Location: Wendy Bell’s Happy Place :)
1,763 posts, read 474,579 times
Reputation: 652
Quote:
Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj View Post
I take it you're a glass half empty kind of person
I’m not a glass half empty person. You are talking about neighborhoods that have been fully developed for decades. There isn’t all of this new housing being built to add thousands of people. It will add people but not the numbers people think or hope. How much new single family housing has been added to Lawrenceville. Ok there have been apartments and condos. Maybe a few hundred to a thousand folks. I just don’t see how you can add thousands of folks in a neighborhood already built out unless it’s many couples having children and expanding under one roof.

My point is you are probably looking at a 1 for 1 population replacement. You have gentrification and population stability with numbers. Not thousands of folks boosting numbers

Last edited by Independentthinking83; 12-23-2019 at 08:06 AM..
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