Western PA School District Enrollment (Pittsburgh, Greensburg: chapel, new home, employment)

[runpens1]

I saw this on the Center for Rural Pennsylvania website. I had some thoughts on it. https://www.rural.palegislature.us/d...2019_2030.html

For Allegheny County, some of the districts I expected to have an increase are on there. (North Allegheny, West Allegheny, Moon, South Fayette, Jefferson Hills, etc.) However, I notice Pine-Richland is not projected for an increase in enrollment, but North Hills is. What do you think is up with that?

Butler County, looks like all of the southern portion (Seneca,Mars,Freeport), including Knoch is projected for an increase in enrollment, which surprised me a little as well. It's still a pretty rural area.

Washington County, the ones in the northern portion are projected for an increase (Peters, Canon-Mac, etc.), which doesn't suprise me. However, some of the more rural ones (Burgettstown, Avella, Bentworth maybe, etc.) are also projected, I don't know if they are calling for growth to be starting in those areas over the next ten years.

Westmoreland County, it seems like all except Penn-Trafford and Belle Vernon are projected to decline. I don't if there maybe the only areas that are still seeing enough of an influx of people coming over from Allegheny.

Beaver County, it seems like all but Hopewell Area are expected to decline. I think they may have built like one new housing plan and I don't know if the rural townships will see some development in the next decade maybe due to the airport and the Shell plant.

I was curious as to others thoughts on this.

[villageidiot1]

I'm surprised they project Burgettstown, Avella, Bentworth, and Belle Vernon to have increases. Virtually all of Western PA has declining public school enrollment due to population and students going to private and charter schools. Most school districts with increases will be in the I-79 corridor, basically from Seneca Valley south to Canon-McMillan.

[runpens1]

Originally Posted by villageidiot1

I'm surprised they project Burgettstown, Avella, Bentworth, and Belle Vernon to have increases. Virtually all of Western PA has declining public school enrollment due to population and students going to private and charter schools. Most school districts with increases will be in the I-79 corridor, basically from Seneca Valley south to Canon-McMillan.

Yeah it seems like the Pittsburgh metro area's strong growth corridor and therefore school district enrollment increases in recent years has been the I-79/US 19 corridor from Canon-McMillan north to Seneca Valley, west to the airport, and east to Pine-Richland and Mars area. I don't know if you'd say Burgettstown area sort of fits in with that, especially with 576 coming ,will provide easier access to the 79 corridor in Washington County as well as being close to the airport? It may have seemed like that Robinson Township in Washington County could have potential, but I think that's in Fort Cherry school district, right? I'm not sure what's going in Avella and Bentworth areas? Belle Vernon area is maybe doing ok for the general Mon Fayette area, but I still wasn't sure I could see it really taking off. I know it's known for being right smack in the middle of four cities (Pittsburgh to the north, Uniontown to the south, Washington to the west, and Greensburg to the east), so I don't if maybe its location is an advantage for people.

[villageidiot1]

Originally Posted by runpens1

Yeah it seems like the Pittsburgh metro area's strong growth corridor and therefore school district enrollment increases in recent years has been the I-79/US 19 corridor from Canon-McMillan north to Seneca Valley, west to the airport, and east to Pine-Richland and Mars area. I don't know if you'd say Burgettstown area sort of fits in with that, especially with 576 coming ,will provide easier access to the 79 corridor in Washington County as well as being close to the airport? It may have seemed like that Robinson Township in Washington County could have potential, but I think that's in Fort Cherry school district, right? I'm not sure what's going in Avella and Bentworth areas? Belle Vernon area is maybe doing ok for the general Mon Fayette area, but I still wasn't sure I could see it really taking off. I know it's known for being right smack in the middle of four cities (Pittsburgh to the north, Uniontown to the south, Washington to the west, and Greensburg to the east), so I don't if maybe its location is an advantage for people.

The two main school districts that gained enrollment from Southpointe were Canon-McMillan and South Fayette. With the completion of 576, I don't see districts like Burgettstown and Avella growing in the next decade or so. School districts in Eastern Washington County such as Bentworth are on the decline and 576 won't make a difference. I-70 goes through the Bentworth SD. Belle Vernon and Yough SDs are similar situations with I-70 running through their districts. I think West Allegheny SD might have the most potential for growth. Another possibility might be the Fort Cherry SD in Washington County. If I was building a house with young kids, I would build in the West Allegheny SD before Fort Cherry however.

[runpens1]

Originally Posted by villageidiot1

The two main school districts that gained enrollment from Southpointe were Canon-McMillan and South Fayette. With the completion of 576, I don't see districts like Burgettstown and Avella growing in the next decade or so. School districts in Eastern Washington County such as Bentworth are on the decline and 576 won't make a difference. I-70 goes through the Bentworth SD. Belle Vernon and Yough SDs are similar situations with I-70 running through their districts. I think West Allegheny SD might have the most potential for growth. Another possibility might be the Fort Cherry SD in Washington County. If I was building a house with young kids, I would build in the West Allegheny SD before Fort Cherry however.

True, I would say Burgettstown and Avella are still too far removed from development to see growth in the near future. As far as eastern Washington County goes, 576 may make its way over there eventuallly. But, until that actually happens, I don't see much changing. Bentworth, Belle Vernon and Yough I guess all do have the advantage of I-70 but may particularly Bentworth and Yough don't have enough of a base overall. They are more like small town, coal country areas. West Allegheny I think still has some pretty sizeable land and with highway and employment nearby, I could see it still continuing to grow steadily for years to come. Possibly, Fort Cherry as well, but maybe they too don't have enough of a base. For Beaver County, I'm wondering about Hopewell, it also includes Indpendence and Raccoon townships, I think, which are still very rural, but close enough to the airport development and the Shell cracker plant. For Butler County, the only one I was surprised to see increase was Knoch, I'm just not sure I see it venturing off its rural path, there isn't much highway coming through the district as an incentive for growth. Freeport I'm not surprise about with 28 and other employers moving into the area. Buffalo Township and maybe eventually South Buffalo in Armstrong County could maybe be a geographical anamoly of growth in our area.

[villageidiot1]

Originally Posted by runpens1

True, I would say Burgettstown and Avella are still too far removed from development to see growth in the near future. As far as eastern Washington County goes, 576 may make its way over there eventuallly. But, until that actually happens, I don't see much changing. Bentworth, Belle Vernon and Yough I guess all do have the advantage of I-70 but may particularly Bentworth and Yough don't have enough of a base overall. They are more like small town, coal country areas. West Allegheny I think still has some pretty sizeable land and with highway and employment nearby, I could see it still continuing to grow steadily for years to come. Possibly, Fort Cherry as well, but maybe they too don't have enough of a base. For Beaver County, I'm wondering about Hopewell, it also includes Indpendence and Raccoon townships, I think, which are still very rural, but close enough to the airport development and the Shell cracker plant. For Butler County, the only one I was surprised to see increase was Knoch, I'm just not sure I see it venturing off its rural path, there isn't much highway coming through the district as an incentive for growth. Freeport I'm not surprise about with 28 and other employers moving into the area. Buffalo Township and maybe eventually South Buffalo in Armstrong County could maybe be a geographical anamoly of growth in our area.

I'm not very familiar with Beaver County. As far as school districts like South Butler, and ones going up Route 28 to Armstrong County, I don't see growth. Mars has seen the overflow growth from Cranberry, but I don't see that going any further east. Even a school district like Fox Chapel has not grown much over the years even though there is available land for development in the northern part of the district. There is little business going out Route 28 to Kittanning outside of Rosebud Mining and Oberg Industries.

[runpens1]

Originally Posted by villageidiot1

I'm not very familiar with Beaver County. As far as school districts like South Butler, and ones going up Route 28 to Armstrong County, I don't see growth. Mars has seen the overflow growth from Cranberry, but I don't see that going any further east. Even a school district like Fox Chapel has not grown much over the years even though there is available land for development in the northern part of the district. There is little business going out Route 28 to Kittanning outside of Rosebud Mining and Oberg Industries.

Agreed, the only thing I beg to differ on is that Buffalo Township in Butler County and Freeport SD has seen modest growth, maybe due to Oberg Industries, and 28 being a reasonable commute to RIDC, while living across the county line. It's not seeing Cranberry-like growth, but I can see it still growing slowly but steadily in the coming years. I live near southern Butler County and know the area pretty well. In Butler County, most of the townships are lined up side-by-side. The southern edge from west to east consists of Cranberry (Seneca SD), Adams (Mars Area SD), Middlesex (Mars Area SD), Clinton (South Butler SD), and Buffalo (Freeport SD). Of those five, Clinton is the only one that still hasn't seen housing growth. I'm not sure if it's the school district, or what. Yeah even like Fox Chapel SD hasn't been building that many new homes, despite there still being sizeable land in Indiana Township. Once in a while, a housing plan will go up but I'm not sure what's up there overall.