PA 2020 Census Population (Pittsburgh, Allentown, Erie: credit, construction, income)

[runpens1]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

I think in Allegheny, most of the losses outside of the city will be the Eastern suburbs and southern suburbs closest to the mon valley. I expect those areas to have steep losses.

In the city, I think the traditionally black neighborhoods on the east end have just plummeted even more. I also think there will be pretty large losses for the south hills and the western neighborhoods, like Sheraden. In the north side I think upper part to the north suburbs sustained substantial losses like observatory hill and Perry hilltop and Marshall Shadeland. I’d throw Brighton heights in there as well. IMO for the city to sustain population all of those areas have to be pretty much stable or at a positive. I don’t see it.

Some surprises I think Beechview will show growth while the southside flats show decline.


As far as westmoreland I think murrsysville is likely doing the best. I think Greensburg City and the New Stanton areas will do better than most people expect. Most of the losses will be from places like Jeanette and north that border Armstrong county.

I can agree that for Allegheny, the eastern suburbs will see the steepest declines except for maybe Plum and Oakmont will be stable due to recent developments, the southeast suburbs as well except for definitely Jefferson Hills. Maybe I'd throw Tarentum, Shaler/Etna/Millvale, as well as Carnegie/Scott Township areas in there as well. I can agree with most of what you said about the city except for I thought the southside flats would be in the up and coming areas of the city such as Lawrenceville, North Shore, Shadyside, East Liberty, etc.

I think for Westmoreland, Murrysville hasn't been building as many new homes as in past years, so I'm not sure it is doing as well as before. I think North Huntingdon, Manor borough, as well as maybe South Greensburg will do the best. I do think the biggest losses will be from places like Jeannette, New Ken, and Monessen and places north along the Armstrong border, further south of New Stanton (Mt. Pleasant/Scottdale, and East Huntingdon areas), as well as maybe the far east portions that border the Johnstown metros.

It's hard to say exactly how they will all balance out now though.

[Independentthinking83]

Chris Briem posted that the census bureau estimates the Pittsburgh MSA lost nearly 9,000 people between 2019 and 2020. Pittsburgh metro was in the top 10 population decline for the year.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...ounty.amp.html

[erieguy]

No surprise there...and I’m sure Wolf didn’t help the cause from 2020-2021.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by erieguy

No surprise there...and I’m sure Wolf didn’t help the cause from 2020-2021.

Possibly, but PA especially this part has been subpar for a while. COVID may have been the death stab for the region. Regardless I think most businesses would have their own restrictions and people would’ve chosen to isolate regardless of wolfs orders or not. Some may not have, but all it would take is one super spreader event to make the news and things would’ve shut down and people would’ve stayed home. Too much liability with the virus. I can’t imagine the lawsuits that follow in the coming years and decades.

Anyways the population loss is real, it’s massive and it’s coming to ahead. That’s why Pittsburgh city council is trying to hold meetings and make it seem like they care about the black population loss which I’m sure is probably one of the worst in the country. All of this comes down to simple economics. People are not going to stay or come here for low wages, very little opportunity and a subpar way of life. Affordable housing means squat if this city remains a niche economy with very little for the majority of people that live here. Black folks are leaving because this city doesn’t really want them. As evidenced by the constant overpandering to the local institutions in Oakland and overstating the greatness of what just tech brings to the local economy. Because I can’t think of one groundbreaking thing they supported or funded to help the African American community. It is important but in the grand scheme of the entire city and metro it is really small and can be considered insignificant with impact outside of 1 or 2 city hoods.

[Jbraybarten65]

Wow blaming politicians for deeply embedded national and regional trends.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Jbraybarten65

Wow blaming politicians for deeply embedded national and regional trends.

Who did that?

Wolf shutting down much of the state, and the 2nd most businesses in the country, isn’t good for keeping folks in the state...and let’s not forget that PA already has a lousy economy. Last I looked it ranks 42/50 states.

[runpens1]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Possibly, but PA especially this part has been subpar for a while. COVID may have been the death stab for the region. Regardless I think most businesses would have their own restrictions and people would’ve chosen to isolate regardless of wolfs orders or not. Some may not have, but all it would take is one super spreader event to make the news and things would’ve shut down and people would’ve stayed home. Too much liability with the virus. I can’t imagine the lawsuits that follow in the coming years and decades.

Anyways the population loss is real, it’s massive and it’s coming to ahead. That’s why Pittsburgh city council is trying to hold meetings and make it seem like they care about the black population loss which I’m sure is probably one of the worst in the country. All of this comes down to simple economics. People are not going to stay or come here for low wages, very little opportunity and a subpar way of life. Affordable housing means squat if this city remains a niche economy with very little for the majority of people that live here. Black folks are leaving because this city doesn’t really want them. As evidenced by the constant overpandering to the local institutions in Oakland and overstating the greatness of what just tech brings to the local economy. Because I can’t think of one groundbreaking thing they supported or funded to help the African American community. It is important but in the grand scheme of the entire city and metro it is really small and can be considered insignificant with impact outside of 1 or 2 city hoods.

Yeah I think our area has been struggling mostly with the more deaths than births for quite some time and maybe COVID hurt that even worse in parts of our area. I don't know how much I'm taking these estimates seriously due to the official census state numbers already being out. However, the good news that came from them for our area is that Butler County did have one of the highest growth rates in our state from July 2019-2020 and Washington County stayed stagnant, showing that at least the net migration has still been good in some parts.

[Jbraybarten65]

Originally Posted by runpens1

Yeah I think our area has been struggling mostly with the more deaths than births for quite some time and maybe COVID hurt that even worse in parts of our area. I don't know how much I'm taking these estimates seriously due to the official census state numbers already being out. However, the good news that came from them for our area is that Butler County did have one of the highest growth rates in our state from July 2019-2020 and Washington County stayed stagnant, showing that at least the net migration has still been good in some parts.

Yeah, much of Western PA and some similar areas have struggled with this for about 30 years now. It's not going to change easily. In some area, it has slowed.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Possibly, but PA especially this part has been subpar for a while. COVID may have been the death stab for the region. Regardless I think most businesses would have their own restrictions and people would’ve chosen to isolate regardless of wolfs orders or not. Some may not have, but all it would take is one super spreader event to make the news and things would’ve shut down and people would’ve stayed home. Too much liability with the virus. I can’t imagine the lawsuits that follow in the coming years and decades.

Anyways the population loss is real, it’s massive and it’s coming to ahead. That’s why Pittsburgh city council is trying to hold meetings and make it seem like they care about the black population loss which I’m sure is probably one of the worst in the country. All of this comes down to simple economics. People are not going to stay or come here for low wages, very little opportunity and a subpar way of life. Affordable housing means squat if this city remains a niche economy with very little for the majority of people that live here. Black folks are leaving because this city doesn’t really want them. As evidenced by the constant overpandering to the local institutions in Oakland and overstating the greatness of what just tech brings to the local economy. Because I can’t think of one groundbreaking thing they supported or funded to help the African American community. It is important but in the grand scheme of the entire city and metro it is really small and can be considered insignificant with impact outside of 1 or 2 city hoods.

Nah. Most folks aren’t so weak as to let a virus with a 98%+ survival rate, let their livelihoods go away.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda doesn’t hold water. Wolf shut down the 2nd most businesses in the country, and there was zero need to do that.

What lawsuits? Folks need to quit being afraid of their own shadow. There’s no grounds for lawsuits.

Pittsburgh simply isn’t a desirable area. Until that changes, population will continue to decrease.

[Jbraybarten65]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Anyways the population loss is real, it’s massive and it’s coming to ahead.

It's rough, particularly with the outer counties. Allegheny has a way to go too.