Last Minute Questions (Pittsburgh, Upper St. Clair, Fox Chapel: real estate market, city hall, HOA)

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by jinxd_13

Let me know Brian TH. I know this is your area

Not only is that my area in general, that is just a few blocks down Whitney from the house we just bought.

Anyway, that is indeed in Wilkinsburg, and that means the Wilkinsburg School District, which doesn't have a great reputation. For what it is worth, a lot of people in the area use some of the relatively inexpensive private schools around (including some good Catholic schools). And the wage tax is only 1% (versus 3% in the City), so that helps offset the cost.

[jinxd_13]

Wewent up north today and, gosh, we really loved it. Avalon is soooooo cute and we saw a house in West View and that area is super cutesy too. I bet it is just Rockwelesque in fall and winter. How are the locals in West View? Is it soccer mom snottyville? Ya'll saw my pic. We are a bit more..progressive(?) than alot of folks and I have hated living in the super suburbs (almost even country) where we have been. Would I feel uncomfortable in West View or Avalon/Belleview? Thanx guys for all your patience with our gallavanting. we just have such a short time to find a home.

[Humanoid]

As for it being necessary to be from a place that doesn't have something to appreciate its beauty, I find that silly.

If you are referring to what I said, then well...this isn't it. Its amazing how such a simple claim is so easily misunderstood.

the house we just bought.

This explains a lot.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

This explains a lot.

Our new house is all of 2.5 blocks from the house we currently own, so being homeowners in Regent Square is not new for us. In fact, this is my fourth residence in the area (after living in an apartment in Park Place when I was single and then another apartment in Regent Square with my fiancee-eventually-wife, and then the house we moved into before just now buying a new one).

But, yes, it is true we are fond enough of the neighborhood, and Pittsburgh in general, to buy here (more than once, now).

[Copanut]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

Buying a house right now isn't a good idea anyways, the housing market is in a complete melt down. It will effect Pittsburgh (already has), so you may be surprised by lower prices a year or two later when you want to buy.

Do you have any evidence to back that up? I'm not seeing any decline in values over the last 8-12 months.

[BrianTH]

From what I can tell, Pittsburgh home prices have been basically flat over the last year (which is not bad under the circumstances). Supposedly homes are lasting on the market a bit longer, however.

[Humanoid]

Our new house is all of 2.5 blocks from the house we currently own, so being homeowners in Regent Square is not new for us. In fact, this is my fourth residence in the

Huh? So you own two homes in the area? And have owned 4 since you've been there?
I'm thinking.....oh never mind.

From what I can tell, Pittsburgh home prices have been basically flat over the last year (which is not bad under the circumstances).

Nominal or real? If nominal then real prices declined by 4%.

Do you have any evidence to back that up? I'm not seeing any decline in values over the last 8-12 months.

As above, the area has seen flat nominal prices which is just to say that the price is declining in inflation adjusted terms.

Anyhow, the housing meltdown will have a lagged effect on the Pittsburgh area, that is rather typical. The current housing problems are national, because the cause of the problem is a credit bubble (as are all financial manias really). Anyhow, the Pittsburgh area has a lot of downward price pressure, it would be surprising to not see nominal prices go down. But maybe something magically will happen in the area, but I'm thinking Pittsburghers drunk from the kool-aid a bit too much.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

Huh? So you own two homes in the area?

Yes, but of course we are selling the old one.

And have owned 4 since you've been there?

No, I was renting the first place, then my fiancee/wife and I were renting the second place. The third place I lived in the area was the first place we owned, and again we just bought a new place, which makes four total residences for me, but just the second we have owned.

Nominal or real? If nominal then real prices declined by 4%.

Real, give or take. Specifically, I believe the OFHEO had the Pittsburgh market up 3.4% from 1Q 2007 to 1Q 2008.

As for your predictions about what the future holds for real estate in the area, we shall see.

[BrianTH]

By the way, I am personally a big believer in fundamental analysis when it comes to residential real estate. Specifically, home prices should be a function of local rents. Local rents in turn should be a function of local incomes. So, you should see somewhat similar growth between incomes and home prices in an area over time.

OK, so according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, from 2000 to 2006 (the last year with data available), the Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area had about 26% growth in per capita income. Home prices in that period according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight were up about 34% in the Pittsburgh Metro. So, that fits with the expected model.

Now contrast that with, say, LA. Using the same sources, from 2000 to 2006 per capita income was up 29% in the LA Metro. But home prices were up 158%. That is a major discrepancy.

Hence, I personally would not find it at all surprising if home prices after 2006 retreated in places like LA but stayed steady in Pittsburgh. But again, we shall see.

[mister brewski]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

Anyhow, the housing meltdown will have a lagged effect on the Pittsburgh area, that is rather typical. The current housing problems are national, because the cause of the problem is a credit bubble (as are all financial manias really). Anyhow, the Pittsburgh area has a lot of downward price pressure, it would be surprising to not see nominal prices go down. But maybe something magically will happen in the area, but I'm thinking Pittsburghers drunk from the kool-aid a bit too much.

I'm confused on how you think that we all live in Pittsburgh and are cheerleaders who drink the kool aid??? This can't be true, you see.... Pittsburgh is so far behind culturally and technology wise that the internet hasn't really hit there yet. Most of the select few who have heard of it certainly can't afford it because they don't have a job. Even fewer still are the ones that have heard and can afford it, but don't mind them; they'll be robbed shortly due to obscenely high crime rate. If by some amazing event they avoid that, our awful weather will cut out their power and they'll be finished. So you see we can't even be from the area.

You do realize that there are two extremes to every side. A person who is completely against a city opinion is as worthless as a Pittsburgh cheerleader.