Last Minute Questions (Pittsburgh, Washington, Dormont: rental, houses, moving)

[londonbarcelona]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

From what I can tell, Pittsburgh home prices have been basically flat over the last year (which is not bad under the circumstances). Supposedly homes are lasting on the market a bit longer, however.

A "bit" longer? I know people who have homes that have been on the market for over 2 years AND they're price below market per square foot. However, that said, these people are all in Sewickley, Fox Chapel, Treesdale, Upper St. Clair, etc. I cannot comment on 'city' housing.

[Tallysmom]

Originally Posted by subdivisions

I love the everchanging claims of the haters when it comes to new people. It's the same progression every time. See, first, they say, "Well, you haven't been here yet. Just wait till you get here and see how crappy it is".

Then the new person visits and says they think it looks really nice. So the hater says, "Well, just wait till you move here, you'll really find out how terrible it is then!"

Then the new person moves here and says they like their house and their neighbors are nice. So the hater says, "Well, just wait until you've lived her 6 months. You'll change your tune once (you find asbestos in your house/your car gets stolen/you find out your neighbors are ignorant and provincial/your favorite 80's night gets closed down/some evil person demands that your child bring their grandmother to a school function)!"

After six months the new person is (unaccountably) still happy. The hater doesn't know what to make of that, so they start claiming that the new person is a Pittsburgh cheerleader who has lived here their whole lives and hasn't been anywhere better. Or they claim that the new person is being paid off by some organization to say nice things about the city. Or something else equally implausible. And then they move on to the next new person wanting information.

I've seen it happen multiple times on this forum. It's amusing to me that Jinx is getting the "treatment" now. I think it was By-Tor before that (BTW, has Luke Ravenstahl contacted him yet? Should happen any time now, and then he can start getting compensated for his nice posts about the 'Burgh on City-Data Forum!)

You guys need some new "driving off the newcomers" tactics. We're on to this one now...

I think this is a common human condition -- I live in California and I run into people that do this all the time. At the condo building I clean I can't tell you how many times I run into this -- it makes me think people LOVE being miserable. And if they can make other people miserable -- all the better.

That's one of the biggest reasons I will NEVER live in a place with an HOA.... never never never... if I want to paint my house sky blue pink and have toilet planters in the front yard (that's for you, London! I will never forget that conversation!! ) I will.

But that being said because I KNOW I'm that kind of person I wouldn't go into an area that has an HOA and "fight city hall" as they say. That's only destined to make me unhappy. What's the point?

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by londonbarcelona

A "bit" longer? I know people who have homes that have been on the market for over 2 years AND they're price below market per square foot. However, that said, these people are all in Sewickley, Fox Chapel, Treesdale, Upper St. Clair, etc. I cannot comment on 'city' housing.

Supposedly the average time on market for the Pittsburgh Metro has gone from somewhere in the 70s (days) in the 2003-05 period to somewhere in the 90s now, at least according to a few real estate agents we talked to.

Of course, the experience of individual sellers will vary considerably from the averages.

[londonbarcelona]

Originally Posted by Tallysmom

I think this is a common human condition -- I live in California and I run into people that do this all the time. At the condo building I clean I can't tell you how many times I run into this -- it makes me think people LOVE being miserable. And if they can make other people miserable -- all the better.

That's one of the biggest reasons I will NEVER live in a place with an HOA.... never never never... if I want to paint my house sky blue pink and have toilet planters in the front yard (that's for you, London! I will never forget that conversation!! ) I will.

But that being said because I KNOW I'm that kind of person I wouldn't go into an area that has an HOA and "fight city hall" as they say. That's only destined to make me unhappy. What's the point?

Love you anyway Tally. But toilet seats, now you know you're cruisin' for a bruisin' with that comment! Seems HOA's can be a g-dsend or a real nightmare. Thankfully, I've had good experiences with them, but I know others have had a really rough time with theirs.
Toilet seat planters, why I oughtta........

[Katiana]

And ironically, lots of the Californians who want to move here (to Colorado) say they hear the same things from their friends and family.

[Humanoid]

Hence, I personally would not find it at all surprising if home prices after 2006 retreated in places like LA but stayed steady in Pittsburgh. But again, we shall see.

If we were just talking about a collapse in the housing market I would share your view, but we aren't. We are talking about a collapse in the credit markets and a recession which will effect the Pittsburgh area whether prices went up a lot or not. Also, you can't simply look at income and pretend you're doing some sort of good analysis of the area. Certainly income is a fundamental that housing is usually tied to but there are other issues in Pittsburgh like excess inventory (what is the months of inventory for the area anyways?) due to a declining population. I mean why do you currently own two houses? Do you rent one out? Sore so loud that your wife makes you sleep down the street?

I'm confused on how you think that we all live in Pittsburgh and are cheerleaders who drink the kool aid?

I'm not sure if I "get" your post, but just to note the kool-aid reference is used often to refer "real estate inventors" (err....gamblers) ability to completely ignore any sort of analysis in real estate and go right along with hip. The idea of course is that the kool-aid is has a little of something else in it. Pittsburghers did drink the kool-aid, just not gallons like people in CA.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

Certainly income is a fundamental that housing is usually tied to but there are other issues in Pittsburgh like excess inventory (what is the months of inventory for the area anyways?) due to a declining population.

The population in the area is estimated to have declined about 60,000 from 2000 to 2006. With an area population of around 2.4 million, that is about a 2.5 percent total decline, and hence this is unlikely to create a significant demand-side effect relative to the per capita income growth over that period. Generally, of course all these long term issues are already priced into local homes, so are unlikely to cause a sudden decrease in prices (e.g., it is indeed true that there is a relatively large inventory of nice homes here, but that is why they are relatively inexpensive to buy in the first place, which reduces your basis for the appreciation calculations when you sell).

I mean why do you currently own two houses?

Because we decided to buy the second house before selling the first. It was a somewhat unique situation: the second house was a house we knew in our neighborhood, and on the short list of houses we always said we would buy if it ever came up for sale. It did in fact come on the market, and the price was very reasonable, so we bought it.

Accordingly, that meant getting our first house ready to sell (we are selling it ourselves), and also planning and executing the move. We just put our first house on the market about a month ago, and our first open house is coming up this week. Meanwhile, we are doing a slow move to the new house, with the final move likely coming up sometime in June. I might note we are prepared to own both houses for a while ... we can carry both mortgages more or less indefinitely, and so there is no need for us to cut the price on the old house just to get a quick sale.

Of course as noted above, the average time on market around here is apparently in the 90s, so we are still well short of that time.

[guylocke]

I love the everchanging claims of the haters when it comes to new people. It's the same progression every time. See, first, they say, "Well, you haven't been here yet. Just wait till you get here and see how crappy it is".

Then the new person visits and says they think it looks really nice. So the hater says, "Well, just wait till you move here, you'll really find out how terrible it is then!"

Then the new person moves here and says they like their house and their neighbors are nice. So the hater says, "Well, just wait until you've lived her 6 months. You'll change your tune once (you find asbestos in your house/your car gets stolen/you find out your neighbors are ignorant and provincial/your favorite 80's night gets closed down/some evil person demands that your child bring their grandmother to a school function)!"

After six months the new person is (unaccountably) still happy. The hater doesn't know what to make of that, so they start claiming that the new person is a Pittsburgh cheerleader who has lived here their whole lives and hasn't been anywhere better. Or they claim that the new person is being paid off by some organization to say nice things about the city. Or something else equally implausible. And then they move on to the next new person wanting information.

I've seen it happen multiple times on this forum. It's amusing to me that Jinx is getting the "treatment" now. I think it was By-Tor before that (BTW, has Luke Ravenstahl contacted him yet? Should happen any time now, and then he can start getting compensated for his nice posts about the 'Burgh on City-Data Forum!)

You guys need some new "driving off the newcomers" tactics. We're on to this one now...

BEST.POST.EVER.

LOL. No seriously, absolutely hilarious.

Jinxd, aside from the overwhelming task of finding a home, how is everything going so far? You seemed to be enjoying yourself the first day you arrived, let's have an update!

PS. You so didn't call me!!!!!

[Humanoid]

we can carry both mortgages more or less indefinitely, and so there is no need for us to cut the price on the old house just to get a quick sale.

Such financially wizardry. This assumes 1.) The market does not decline, 2.) Your house is currently priced right. So you can carry both mortgages indefinitely and I can flush 100's down the toilet if I wanted, but that really isn't the point now is it? Every month you own two houses you bleed, not sure why you view that prospect so positively because "you can afford it".

Generally, of course all these long term issues are already priced into local homes, so are unlikely to cause a sudden decrease in prices

The current issues aren't "priced into homes already" (you don't hear people apply efficient market theory to the housing market much!). Obviously Pittsburgh is seeing problems as the inventory is increasing. Its sort of hard to have raising prices and increasing inventory, but I suppose Pittsburgh will defy logic.

Anyhow, how do you know how much the population decline effects home prices? Have the rates of appreciate over the last 5-7 years been too much for the area, that is what would they have been without the credit bubble? I don't really now the answers to these questions, but prices will decline for other reasons even if the population issue is small and the areas appreciate was appropriate.

[BrianTH]

Humanoid,

Your concerns for our financial well-being and predictions about the Pittsburgh real estate market are duly noted.