Economic Update (Pittsburgh, Economy, Denver: environment, real estate, foreclosure)

[guylocke]

The May numbers are in and PNC has also released their Pittsburgh economic outlook this past week (the latter of which I briefly posted in Happenings).

There is plenty of good news and some not-so-unsurprising bad news.

First thing's first.

Pittsburgh is currently creating jobs at a rate higher than the national average!! In May, it was THREE TIMES higher, as a matter of fact.

That being said, Pittsburgh's rate of job growth has also slowed due to the economic crunch, but many of the jobs (1 in 5) that are being created are very much "recession-resistant" which includes health care and higher academia.

Pittsburgh's housing market has slumped some, but has remained fairly stable compared to the nation and our foreclosure rate is ranked 87th out of 100 top cities. Our housing appreciation rate is also EXCEEDING the national average.

Furthermore, Pittsburgh's Economic Stress Index is BELOW the national average which has been attributed to a reasonably stable economy in the region and the avoidance of a boom-bust cycle.

The largest fact remains that Pittsburgh CONTINUES TO CREATE JOBS during a time when MANY cities across America are stagnant or losing jobs.

Some facts:

> All but 3 of the top 40 cities in the nation has experienced reductions in their job growth rate or actual job loss.

> Unlike Pittsburgh, 14 of the top 40 regions have less jobs now than they did a year ago including some cities that will surprise you - Cleveland, Detroit, San Diego, Los Angeles, Los Vegas, Phoenix, Miami, and Tampa, to name a few.

[muv2pitt]

That's really encouraging information for someone like me who's moving to Pittsburgh in the near future! Thank you, guylocke.

[Humanoid]

This actually says less about Pittsburgh (nothing has changed that much over the last year) and more about conditions in other cities that are dealing with a massive housing bubble. A lot of the job growth in San Diego, LA, Las Vegas, Miami etc in the last 7 years has been related to the so called FIRE economy. These jobs are now being destroyed left and right as the housing markets crash. So, although this makes Pittsburgh look better than it is now it also made Pittsburgh look worse than it should have over the last 7 years as many of these jobs are gone for good.

[guylocke]

Actually, it says a lot about Pittsburgh. While you are correct to a point that it's not necessarily so much that Pittsburgh is doing spectacularly better (I don't think I ever wrote that), but that the country is doing phenomenally worse. That being said, it says a great deal when a city can buckle national trends in both job growth and housing market while also maintaining a low economic stress index.

That goes to show you just how far and diversified Pittsburgh's economy has come. It is no longer a purely manufacturing city (hardly!) in which a large collapse in, oh, say, steel would be devastating. It is also not creating exorbitant amounts of jobs that are naturally associated with a "fire" economy, which, say, a recession would be devastating to. I think it's important that 1 in 5 jobs created in Pittsburgh is in a recession-resistant industry while only 1 in 14 jobs are such in Los Vegas.

Pittsburgh's economy has resisted, and maybe in a few more months if the recession deepens, the economy here will see much more of in impact, time will only tell.

You may say something along the lines of "Well Pittsburgh's economy kinda sucked anyway, so it really has no where else to go but up, even during a recession."

But that is entirely untrue. Some cities that are trying to transition in a similar way that Pittsburgh is have been hit extensively hard by the recession including Cleveland, Detroit, and Cincinnati.

So while there is some speck of truth in your otherwise ignorant and "doom & gloom" mentality (as usual), I think it all says a great deal about Pittsburgh and the economy here as well as the future. Some major economic forecasters such as PNC Economy believe so as, well. Maybe you should take it up with them.

[Humanoid]

That goes to show you just how far and diversified Pittsburgh's economy has come.

I don't see how it shows that Pittsburgh's economy is diversified rather that it has avoided the most recent boom in real estate that has happened in many other cities.

that Pittsburgh is have been hit extensively hard by the recession including Cleveland, Detroit, and Cincinnati.

From what I know these cities took part in the housing boom more than Pittsburgh. Also, at least officially there isn't a recession yet.

You may say something along the lines of "Well Pittsburgh's economy kinda sucked anyway, so it really has no where else to go but up, even during a recession."

No, Pittsburgh could get a lot worse. But Pittsburgh does have a lot of catching up to do and its simply not growing fast enough to catch up with other areas. That may change in the future, but I think its unlikely given the political situation in the city.

I think it's important that 1 in 5 jobs created in Pittsburgh is in a recession-resistant industry while only 1 in 14 jobs are such in Los Vegas.

Las Vegas is consumer driven so I don't think comparing the two cities is very interesting. Not to mention Las Vegas is rather horrible...I really don't understand how people deal with 110+ dry heat all summer.

Some major economic forecasters such as PNC Economy believe so as, well.
Maybe you should take it up with them.

Yeah brilliant. PNC is in no sense an unbiased source on these matters. This is also to note the Bank isn't doing very well....I guess their forecasters were wrong on some things?

[guylocke]

PNC's economy division is an entirely different entity than their banking division, but I'm not gonna argue with you.

[Humanoid]

PNC's economy division is an entirely different entity than their banking division

What are you talking about? Different divisions of the same company are hardly "different entities". They all have the same goal after all. But yes PNC is 100% honest and would never think about market manipulation.

but I'm not gonna argue with you.

Then don't you can continue like you usually do to post a bunch of misleading data on the Pittsburgh area.

Anyhow, to quote the report for Pittsburgh in June:

"Pittsburgh’s regional economy will
see slow growth in the quarters ahead
as U.S. and international growth
eases. Labor markets in the
Pittsburgh area will see increased
slack over the course of the year.
However, compared with many other
hard hit areas, Pittsburgh will be a
solid performer in 2008."

So Pittsburgh economy is going to slow, but perhaps not as much as other areas. This isn't good news...

[bboy36win]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

Then don't you can continue like you usually do to post a bunch of misleading data on the Pittsburgh area.

Misleading data? He is merely discussing published statistics. Just like you.

[By~Tor]

Originally Posted by bboy36win

Misleading data? He is merely discussing published statistics. Just like you.

My 2 cents:

I don't remember the actual thread, but it has been said here before, that "economic trends tend to take longer to reach PGH, but also tend to take longer to recover from....". . . unlike a NYC or L.A., which feel the effects of economic change in rather short order due to their higher-than-average reliance on service-sector jobs as sources of employment.

We may still be doing okay here NOW, and for those in recession-resistant areas, they may not be affected at all, but in the future, if national trends in price rises continues along with continued depreciation of the housing sector, pittsburgh may end up in a negative-growth environment, like so many other areas... People moving here would be well-advised to try to target their future employment BEFORE actually moving, if they do not enjoy several months' funding as they acclimate to the area...

[Katiana]

It is good to hear that from you, By~Tor. It is what I have said many times over. Someone once asked me if I have the same advice for Denver, and I said "yes, of course". There is some formula for how many months of job-hunting is average for each 10,000 worth of income.

Re: misleading data, I think 'everyone' knows you can't extapolate much from one month's stats. However, anything positive is good.