Interesting G-20 Interview with Mayor Ravenstahl (Pittsburgh, Seven Springs: 2010, violent crime, unemployment rate)

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

You haven't been reading. They are setting up kitchens in the Convention Center.

That is for the official attendees.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

I have a positive impression of Tahiti, but I'm not likely to visit there.

And yet tourism accounts for about one-fourth of GDP in French Polynesia.

Since the meetings, themselves, are closed to press and public, you are not going to see a large media presence here. Why would you? What would they cover except the end of day official statements?

There was a huge press presence from around the world at both the Washington and London meetings.

Edit: Apparently based on the Washington and London events, they are expecting around 2000 journalists.

[JoeLeaphorn]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

And yet tourism accounts for about one-fourth of GDP in French Polynesia.

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it won't make Pittsburgh into Tahiti.

Originally Posted by BrianTH

There was a huge press presence from around the world at both the Washington and London meetings.

Sources?

Maybe we can take a clue from Lake Havasu City and move Big Ben or the Smithsonian to Pittsburgh. Perhaps you'd like to compare tourism in Pittsburgh with that of, say, London or Washington, DC. Anyway, how about some numbers. Remember that London drew thousands of protestors (and didn't close transportation); DC about 500.

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Edit: Apparently based on the Washington and London events, they are expecting around 2000 journalists.

That would be less than the number of people who attended each of the last four Furries conventions. And, by the way, Antrocon is repeat business (G-20 is not).

But Anthrocon didn't cost millions in tax dollars for security, didn't shut down transportation modes and routes, didn't result in the closing of businesses and schools and didn't restrict the movement of citizens (unless you include people cross the street to avoid someone in animal dress).

Oh and who is "they"?

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it won't make Pittsburgh into Tahiti.

My point was that even though you personally don't want to visit Tahiti, other people clearly do, enough for tourism to be very important to Tahiti. I think that shows the limit of consulting your personal preferences when it comes to predicting the behavior of other people.

Sources?

Hotels fill, security plans take shape for world economic summit - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

The White House told Onorato to expect more than 1,000 delegates and 2,000 journalists. That's about the number who attended the G-20 summit in April, Costain said.

"We had over 2,200 press attend the media center in London. Over 500 delegates from 20-plus nations attended the summit. Then, each delegation had support staff" that needed hotel rooms, but didn't attend the meetings, Costain said.

Again, these are big media events, contra to your original assumptions.

Perhaps you'd like to compare tourism in Pittsburgh with that of, say, London or Washington, DC.

Tourism has nothing to do with G20 attendance.

Remember that London drew thousands of protestors (and didn't close transportation)

London closed down public transportation and roads within the security zone, just like we will in Pittsburgh.

That would be less than the number of people who attended each of the last four Furries conventions.

I am also glad Anthrocon has settled in Pittsburgh. I am equally glad for the many other conventions that come to Pittsburgh.

Oh and who is "they"?

The federal, state, and local officials planning for the G20.

[JoeLeaphorn]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

My point was that even though you personally don't want to visit Tahiti, other people clearly do, enough for tourism to be very important to Tahiti. I think that shows the limit of consulting your personal preferences when it comes to predicting the behavior of other people.

Sure. But Pittsburgh is not and will never be a major tourist atttraction and G-20 isn't going to change that or will it make businesses think differently about relocating to Pittsburgh.

Originally Posted by BrianTH

London closed down public transportation and roads within the security zone, just like we will in Pittsburgh.

Neither DC nor London experience the proportionate level of disruption of daily life that Pittsburgh will.

Why don't we wait and see what happens. If Boeing decides to relocate its corporate headquarters, here,... Oh, wait, that was Chicago, and they never hosted a G-20 Summit and appear to be doing fine. Oh, well.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

Sure. But Pittsburgh is not and will never be a major tourist atttraction . . . .

Not that we were actually discussing tourism, but:

More than 10 million people visit the Pittsburgh region annually. Travel is a $3 billion industry that provides more than 50,000 full-time equivalent jobs in Allegheny County.

Pittsburgh Hotels, Attractions & Vacation Packages : Pittsburgh PA CVB

. . . and G-20 isn't going to change that or will it make businesses think differently about relocating to Pittsburgh.

Again, I'll just repeat that marketing alone can't cause things to happen, but it can help.

Neither DC nor London experience the proportionate level of disruption of daily life that Pittsburgh will.

Yes, Pittsburgh is a smaller city.

Why don't we wait and see what happens.

I guess that means you are dropping the notion that I should be able to prove what effects the G-20 will have in advance. Unfortunately, that doesn't address the problem of disentangling causes afterward.

[JoeLeaphorn]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Not that we were actually discussing tourism, but:

Well, I'd have to see where VisitPittsburgh gets their numbers. This is, obviously, marketing and the 10 million people may be 10 million visits, which is different. Also, do they count people who pass through Pittsburgh without stopping. Finally, there are many Travel Economic Impact Models and they don't all agree. For example, in this model:

The Power of Travel : : Economic Impact of Travel and Tourism

Not a single district in the state came anywhere near the numbers or the proportions that you listed.

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Again, I'll just repeat that marketing alone can't cause things to happen, but it can help.

I thought that you had a law degree, do you have a marketing degree as well? If so, how are people ever to make money on marketing if there is no way to prove its effectiveness?

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I guess that means you are dropping the notion that I should be able to prove what effects the G-20 will have in advance. Unfortunately, that doesn't address the problem of disentangling causes afterward.

No, I am saying that saying G-20 is good for the city or even the city's image is little more than speculation. Unless you were to do pre and post survery (the latter being harder since the announcement was already made), and measure the impact at some point in time out from the G-20 (say a year), you have no way of knowing.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

Not a single district in the state came anywhere near the numbers or the proportions that you listed.

The Pittsburgh region contains multiple districts. If you added up the local districts (4, 14, and 18, and parts of 3, 9, and 12) it looks to me like you would get similar numbers, maybe even a bit higher.

If so, how are people ever to make money on marketing if there is no way to prove its effectiveness?

That is a good question. Marketers will do things like conduct focus groups designed to test the potential effectiveness of possible campaigns, and then they will demonstrate to their clients that the campaign they chose reached a certain number of people in certain demographics a certain number of times through the channels they chose. They may also do things like conduct periodic surveys (e.g., aided or unaided brand awareness surveys) to try to measure the effectiveness of their campaigns. And of course they will look at sales (or the equivalent) following marketing events, but again it can be hard-to-impossible to disentangle what effect the marketing itself had in those cases.

In short, "proof", meaning conclusive hard data about effects, is very often elusive in marketing--you are usually more making educated guesses about what is more or less helpful and how much it is worth to your business. But that doesn't mean marketing can be ignored, because even if the effects are hard to measure with precision, if there is indeed a positive effect overall, then ignoring marketing will ultimately leave you at a disadvantage with respect to your competitors.

Anyway, in theory it might be possible to do some of this stuff with respect to the G-20--for example, you could probably do things like try to measure unique G-20/Pittsburgh posts and hits on the Internet, and conduct surveys (although those would be very expensive since the market in question is international). But since this is not as controlled an event as a typical marketing campaign, even all that will only get you so far.

Unless you were to do pre and post survery (the latter being harder since the announcement was already made), and measure the impact at some point in time out from the G-20 (say a year), you have no way of knowing.

We basically agree about that. But as I implied above, that cuts both ways: not being able to measure the impact with precision doesn't mean we know the impact is zero and can safely be ignored in our considerations. We just have to make our best educated guesses and go from there.

Edit: I forgot to address this:

I thought that you had a law degree, do you have a marketing degree as well?

I don't put much stock in arguments from authority. But it happens that in my legal practice I have had to deal with some marketing issues in some depth.

[JoeLeaphorn]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

The Pittsburgh region contains multiple districts. If you added up the local districts (4, 14, and 18, and parts of 3, 9, and 12) it looks to me like you would get similar numbers, maybe even a bit higher.

Aww, C'mon. Mercer County? Harrisburg? If you look at the Congression District that includes the city, itself, you get:

PA-District 14

1,245.0
352.7
17.5

Spending: $1.245 billion
Payroll: $352.7 million
Travel Employment: $17.5 million (which is hardly enough to employ 50,000 people).

Sure, if you cast your net wide enough, you're gonna catch some fish. Just make sure you aren't in someone else's territorial waters. The Pittsburgh region, according to your definition, includes many areas of interest that people visit that don't require one to enter even Allegheny County.

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I don't put much stock in arguments from authority. But it happens that in my legal practice I have had to deal with some marketing issues in some depth.

As a physician and researcher I do, among other things, measure the impact of various media on patient and physician decision making. I also know the importance of making your decisions on the basis of evidence and not just what feels good or right.

Life and politics are full of unintended consequences. Some of these overshadow any benefits of the intended consequences. It "feels" like this should be good for Pittsburgh, but I tend to doubt that it will have any lasting impact.

A top notch public transportation system, yes. More direct flights to more locations, yes. A G20 Summit? Well...

A year from now you'll still see many more "Steelers" towels, caps and jerseys on non-Pittsburghers than you'll see "Pittsburgh: Home of the 2009 G-20 Summit".

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

The Pittsburgh region, according to your definition, includes many areas of interest that people visit that don't require one to enter even Allegheny County.

Absolutely. The Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area--defined not by me, but the Census Bureau--is a seven-county region.

I also know the importance of making your decisions on the basis of evidence and not just what feels good or right.

Or what feels bad or wrong.

It "feels" like this should be good for Pittsburgh, but I tend to doubt that it will have any lasting impact.

Case in point: that is one feeling versus another feeling.

A top notch public transportation system, yes. More direct flights to more locations, yes. A G20 Summit? Well...

Those are non-exclusive. Generally, marketing isn't a substitute for a good product. But that doesn't make marketing irrelevant.

A year from now you'll still see many more "Steelers" towels, caps and jerseys on non-Pittsburghers than you'll see "Pittsburgh: Home of the 2009 G-20 Summit".

The Steelers have probably been good marketing for the region as well, although I think we are well into diminishing marginal returns at this point.