Why the Midwest is gonna boom again. (Pittsburgh, York: condo, houses)

[TelecasterBlues]

I don't see this happening. Natural factors such as climate, modern career choices, and people simply being upwardly mobile during this generation also have a lot to do with the Sun Belt doing so well. I don't know if the North East, let alone the Mid West will ever truly be in the limelight again as far as national exposure is concerned. Some of those cities...nah. The Cincis, Clevelands, Detroits, St. Louis, etcs of the nation are never going to see the light of day again for obvious reasons. Minneapolis and Columbus are booming and have been doing so for quite some time, they fill unique niches though as the "cosmopolitan and sophistocated city of the Mid West" and "modern and cool college city extraordinare of Ohio"...it also doesn't help that they're just flat out nice cities that stick out from everything else around them. Pittsburgh won't experience a "boom" anytime soon, but it does stand a chance to finally level off its 50 year population loss issues, duck out of its Rust Belt ashes, and maintain a slightly growing residential population between 300k-320k people between now and 2030 while most other cities in this region continue to decline.

But as far as the next 20 years go...this is the age of cities like Austin, Portland, Raleigh, Phoenix, Charlotte, Nashville, Orlando, etc. Those cities are literally going up as we speak...Austin's growth is sickening to the point of google picture search being completely out of date and unable to keep up with any correct semblance of the city's skyline due to their rapid skyscraper boom. It changes on a monthly basis due to all the construction, simply incredible to keep track of. But we just don't have that kind of interest up here in this neck of the woods. The North East has almost maxed out and is expensive, and the majority of the Mid West is borderline crap with lots of problems...both have less than perfect weather conditions and job opportunities lie within the South/South West for this era. It is what it is, the 20-somethings of this generation have flewn South.

[creepsinc]

Originally Posted by TelecasterBlues

I don't see this happening. Natural factors such as climate, modern career choices, and people simply being upwardly mobile during this generation also have a lot to do with the Sun Belt doing so well. I don't know if the North East, let alone the Mid West will ever truly be in the limelight again as far as national exposure is concerned. Some of those cities...nah. The Cinci, Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, etcs of the nation are never going to see the light of day again for obvious reasons. Minneapolis and Columbus are booming and have been doing so for quite some time, they fill unique niches though as the "cosmopolitan and sophistocated city of the Mid West" and "modern and cool college city extraordinare of Ohio". Pittsburgh won't experience a "boom" anytime soon, but it does stand a chance to finally level off its 50 year population loss issues, duck out of its Rust Belt ashes, and maintain a slightly growing residential population between 300k-320k people between now and 2030.

But as far as the next 20 years go...this is the age of cities like Austin, Portland, Raleigh, Phoenix, Charlotte, Nashville, etc. Those cities are literally going up as we speak...Austin's growth is sickening to the point of google picture search being completely out of date and unable to keep up with any correct semblance of the city's skyline due to their rapid skyscraper boom. We just don't have that kind of interest up here in this neck of the woods. The North East has almost maxed out and is expensive, and the majority of the Mid West is borderline crap with lots of problems...both have less than perfect weather conditions and job opportunities lie within the South/South West for this era. It is what it is.

I'm inclined to be skeptical of this, mainly because of how sure of yourself you seem. To say any of those cities is "never" coming back is just ridiculous. Also, not everywhere in the NE is expensive, Pittsburgh being a case in point. And Charlotte is currently in the toilet, proof that the much-vaunted Sun Belt sprawling hells aren't immune to downturns. And the majority of the Midwest is "borderline crap"? Beware the blanket statement.

[TelecasterBlues]

[quote=Internet Superman;11442734]
Places like Pennsylvania are becoming Retirement communities - just like Florida back in the 70's, 80's and 90's!
Moderator cut: link removed, linking to competitors sites is not allowed.

[Hopes]

Pennsylvania's main problem is not taxing retirement income. That's why we're attracting so many retired people from other states.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Hopes

Pennsylvania's main problem is not taxing retirement income. That's why we're attracting so many retired people from other states.

No, much of Pennsylvania is aging in place with an out-migration of younger residents. That can increase the median age pretty quickly.

[TelecasterBlues]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

No, much of Pennsylvania is aging in place with an out-migration of younger residents. That can increase the median age pretty quickly.

Bingo, West Virginia is in the same boat sans Morgantown

[Hopes]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

No, much of Pennsylvania is aging in place with an out-migration of younger residents. That can increase the median age pretty quickly.

Myth. The out-migration happened decades ago with the collapse of the steel industry. That's not occuring at an incredible rate anymore.

And Pennsylvania is experiencing immigration of retired people.

Goodness, Pennsylvania is experiencing a population boom in the eastern part of the state.

It's becoming a suburb for New York City, Baltmore and Washington DC----as far as the center of the state even.

Pennsylvania is going to be the next Connecticut soon!

I'm sure it's difficult for you to be up-to-date with what's happening in Pennsylvania since you live in New Hampshire.

Even some Pennsylvanian's fall for those old stereotypes though so I'll forgive you.

[greg42]

The Pittsburgh area seems to age in place without any net in or out migration at this point.

Well, or it has seemed that way most of the time I've lived here (will reach exactly 18 years in less than 3 weeks). At this moment that may be changing a bit. And yes, the in migration certainly does include retiring people. They don't need to worry about schools, and they could be attracted by low cost of living with the cultural amenities of the city. There's a new development just up the road from where I live that's active senior, at least one person buying must be 55 or older.

[Fiddlehead]

Originally Posted by creepsinc

I'm inclined to be skeptical of this, mainly because of how sure of yourself you seem. To say any of those cities is "never" coming back is just ridiculous. Also, not everywhere in the NE is expensive, Pittsburgh being a case in point. And Charlotte is currently in the toilet, proof that the much-vaunted Sun Belt sprawling hells aren't immune to downturns. And the majority of the Midwest is "borderline crap"? Beware the blanket statement.

I agree. This post, and the blanket boosterism of the OPs intro post, tend to trip my BS sensor. However, making a bold statement does tend to stimulate a response!

Just a reality check. Plenty of places in the South, Southwest just plain suck. I know that many people find the politics of the South to be a big turnoff, for example. And the much-vaunted climate is a double edge sword. As for me, I suffer much more in long roasting summers than in a four season climate (I would prefer Pittsburgh to Raleigh anyday). Florida? No thanks! Glad to visit on vacation, but living in a flat, humid state sounds like hell to me. Texas? Right, my wife would divorce me if I even mentioned it. I may be in the minority, but I do not agree that all growth will be in the South and Southwest. I should also add that water more than land limits long-term growth in the Southwest, or it should. Global warming looks like it with not be kind to the water supplies SW. Have you ever seen what goes for a river in New Mexico?

Google Image Result for http://www.santafetrailnm.org/61.jpg

Since all agriculture must be irrigated, most rivers are so diverted they dry up entirely for months, and then folks pump groundwater, which is not bein replaced. Bottomline, the Southwest is rapidly approaching or has exceeded carrying capacity of its environment.


I think there will be distinctive city by city patterns. For instance, as an Oregonian, I am very excited about Pittsburgh/W. PA,even Morgantown, WV, but not so keen on Minnesota, Wisconsins (brrr....) or Kentucky (heat stroke, chiggers). I think I would prefer places between about 38-42 north latitude, not too terribly hot (or at least not long summers) and not horrendously long winters, with hills, woods, trout streams, and rivers close at hand. I would consider being a little further south, but only in the mountains (Ashville,NC, Blacksburg, VA, E. Tennessee). Other folks might have similarly specific preferences. I, for one, would prefer many places in the Midwest to the South or most of the Southwest. Northeast and MidAtlantic also have appeal, but too darn crowded!

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Hopes

Myth. The out-migration happened decades ago with the collapse of the steel industry. That's not occuring at an incredible rate anymore.

And Pennsylvania is experiencing immigration of retired people.

Goodness, Pennsylvania is experiencing a population boom in the eastern part of the state.

It's becoming a suburb for New York City, Baltmore and Washington DC----as far as the center of the state even.

Pennsylvania is going to be the next Connecticut soon!

I'm sure it's difficult for you to be up-to-date with what's happening in Pennsylvania since you live in New Hampshire.

Even some Pennsylvanian's fall for those old stereotypes though so I'll forgive you.

Ok, I should clarify. Most of rural western PA and some of suburban Pittsburgh is aging in place with some lingering out-migration while NEPA and southeast PA are attracting more retirees. Also, southeast PA should continue to be a growth leader as it acts as a magnet to pull more out of staters in from higher cost of living areas like NYC. Another poster said PA doesn't tax retirement income? That really explains the lower levels of out-migration among the elderly compared to quite a few other higher tax cold climate states.

To illustrate:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/map...vania_map.html
If you click on the individual counties one can quickly realize that much of western PA is still aging and place and slowly losing younger residents through out-migration. Yes, the most severe out-migration period was in the late 70s through early 80s. However, the trickle down effect is still present. Southeast PA (southeast of Harrisburg) should continue to have solid economic and population growth levels. NEPA will continue to benefit from a substantial out-migration trend from the Tri State area for those cost conscious individuals looking for a more affordable alternative as well as retirees who want to remain close to the East Coast. I have a few friends who live in western PA and I have visited that area many times.