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I really don't see how dvd's are history if they don't have storage systems 100% archival stability yet. I've heard too many horror stories to trust them too much.
As for land lines-- too bad they can't come up with hands free (not just cordless) setups for home phones. Old Tech Never Fades Away; It Just Dies - BusinessWeek
I was thinking the same about USB flash memory, as they portray the future as having little need for physical transportable storage and I strongly disagree with that if for no other reason than remote secure storage of sensitive data. Maybe someday down the road and around a corner I can't see yet but Its nice to drop a 16 gig flash stick in and share some tunes, pictures, and movies with a family member, as transmitting 16 gig over a lousy dsl connect would take f o r e v e r.
The fax machine is an interesting character considering it was around since I believe even before the telephone, or at least its early ancestor. The fax machine was the vehicle of choice during the Soviet Revolution as it was the only way to reliably and securely transmit data and anyone who has ever had to send information to their bank, mortgage holder or apply for a job is often still asked to "fax their info".
Tape is still used in the professional world, dying? Yes, but I still don't see flash cards that can store 14GB for $3. The technology hasn't necessarily been superseded but instead the consumer thinks it has. Only advantage flash has over tape is faster transfer rate to computer.
Quote:
CDs may as well be 8-tracks at this point.
Can you get high quality downloads yet? I know they were offering only lower bitrate versions. While convenient this is a step backward IMO.
Last edited by thecoalman; 10-25-2010 at 09:04 AM..
I don't put too much stock in the stuff that is not computer related when dealing with futurists. PDAs, MP3 players, pagers, and so on are either being replaced by cell phones or merging with them and tape is borderline obsolete at this point, but stuff like saying that remote controls (in forms that are similar to the ones today) are going to be obsolete is a bit of a stretch.
Remember back in the 60s when everyone was going to have video phones and only video phones? Who would have predicted that text messaging would be more popular than webcams? Don't even get me started on jetpacks...
I don't put too much stock in the stuff that is not computer related when dealing with futurists. PDAs, MP3 players, pagers, and so on are either being replaced by cell phones or merging with them and tape is borderline obsolete at this point, but stuff like saying that remote controls (in forms that are similar to the ones today) are going to be obsolete is a bit of a stretch.
Remember back in the 60s when everyone was going to have video phones and only video phones? Who would have predicted that text messaging would be more popular than webcams? Don't even get me started on jetpacks...
Heck, I'm still waiting for a flying car in every garage!
Computer and communications technologies are hard to put a finger on as often what is popular and subsequently later developed is often counter intuitive to what we think today. As you pointed out with texting, that is one that is confounds me and the only way I can 'see it' is because it fits well with our blurb based society of thought to talk impatience.
Consider the popularity of things like Facebook and Twitter and other like social sites, it boggles the mind really... brb I need to tweet that I'm taking out the garbage, brb
I was thinking the same about USB flash memory, as they portray the future as having little need for physical transportable storage and I strongly disagree with that if for no other reason than remote secure storage of sensitive data. Maybe someday down the road and around a corner I can't see yet but Its nice to drop a 16 gig flash stick in and share some tunes, pictures, and movies with a family member, as transmitting 16 gig over a lousy dsl connect would take f o r e v e r.
The fax machine is an interesting character considering it was around since I believe even before the telephone, or at least its early ancestor. The fax machine was the vehicle of choice during the Soviet Revolution as it was the only way to reliably and securely transmit data and anyone who has ever had to send information to their bank, mortgage holder or apply for a job is often still asked to "fax their info".
Great article
I never knew that about Soviets but it does make perfect sense.
Along the lines of going by the wayside with the dinosaurs I'd like to see more utility and pragmatism in system designs. Leaning too heavily on digital existence disturbs me very much. How many Americans do you know that can exist without electricity? I saw NYC hobbled into complete dysfunction when the cord got disrupted on the eastern seaboard. Buildings will always need stairwells. Cash registers will always need keys that aren't electronically controlled.
Another thing I hope falls out of fashion someday soon are the million useless gadgets cluttering the aisles & airwaves infomercials. It's been like Ron Popeil on steroids for years now. His next assignment- figure how to sell me a Popeil repellent.
I love popular mechanics & popular science. Just a fan, no aptitude myself, but it would be funny to drag up their archives and have a whole issue dedicated to why so much failed to materialize. I think that would help American policy makers & Joe public realize the need for seed money projects cultivating technology.
20: Combustion engines. Really? In my lifetime we're going to not have engines anymore? We're all going to go to electricity? And when do we start putting wings on pigs? Yeah, we're all going to buy Nissan Leafs. Never mind the fact that if you own one, it will take you the better part of a full day to make the relatively short (and presently 3 hour) drive from Seattle to Portland, seeing as how the Leaf can only travel 100 miles and then needs 8 hours to recharge.
19: Flip video cameras: That's funny, because the Flip HD camcorders have been one of the hottest holiday gifts 2 years running now (a trend that continues this year).
18: Credit cards: Again, seriously? If you were to say "paper money", I might have gotten on board with you. But credit cards? We're just now getting to a point these last 10 years or so to where everybody has migrated to them. And now they're on their way out? I think not.
17: Desktop PC's: Yes, because you can run a server on a laptop, or do hardcore video/graphic editing, or achieve the same video/gaming results on a laptop. And the article mentions tablets: A medium that has made 2 previous pushes into the forefront and failed both times (and yes, this latest rash will fall on its face, too)
16: DVD/Blu-Ray: We are a nation where a significant part of the country still doesn't have access to broadband internet. We don't have the infrastructure. And those of us who do have access have download/bandwidth cap restrictions that make it unfeasible to have a "download only" lifestyle. Not only that, but most people like having a tangible object as opposed to digital content that can have heavy DRM restrictions on it.
15: Music players: Things like the iPod are popular because they have significant battery life, something a smartphone does not and probably will never have (when was the last "battery revolution", eh?). They aren't going anywhere.
14: E-Readers: They just got on the scene. They're hugely popular, and the reality is that Tablets are only good for what are known as "vertical apps", making them little more than a gimmick. Not to mention an e-reader with e-ink that you can read in direct sunlight costs 100 bucks, and a tablet costs 500. More horsecockey.
13: Fax machines: Hey they got one! It only took 7 tries.
12: Game consoles: Yes, because hardcore gamers (or any real gamer for that matter) wants to play casual games on their smartphone or silly java games on their Tablet. Riiiight. There is a reason why the console video game market is now bigger than the movie industry. It's because it's not going anywhere. On the contrary, their scope is expanding. They use as their logic that World of Warcraft is up to 12 million subscribers. First, it's a 7 year old video game. The Playstation 3 has more than 12 million owners, and it's half WoW's age. Beyond that, what are these people going to play their World of Warcraft on, since they gave up their computers for iPads according to this article?
11: Pagers: THey've been dead.
10: GPS Units: Again, one of the hottest gifts of any holiday season. I'm not even going to go into details on this, it's so ludicrous.
9: Keys: Yes, because biometrics are so affordable. I can totally see the government spending trillions of dollars to replace all our keys with cards. Not.
8: Landlines: OK
7: 3D with glasses. Glassless 3D technology becomes less effective the larger the screen size. There is a reason why the Nintendo 3DS can get away with being glassless: Because it's a 3 inch screen. The larger the screen, the less your eyes are "tricked" into the 3D effect. You can't have a big screen without glasses. It just doesn't work. Your eyes need to be shuttered in rapid succession for that to happen. Another clueless statement from the author.
6: Metronomes: They exist because of nostalgia. Thus, they aren't going anywhere.
5: PDA's. They aren't going anywhere. They've evolved into smartphones.
4: P-A-S digital cameras: They've been saying it for 10 years, and the P-A-S is still light years better than the camera in my phone, even though the phone has a higher megapixel resolution.
3: Power cords: Ahh yes, wireless charging. Because we can now power a 10 watt lightbulb through the airwaves, that means within 10 years we'll be able to power big screen TV's, washer/dryers, refrigerators, etc. Or not. Also left out with regards to the cordless charging mats is how you have to ensconce your device in a bulky accessory and then place it directly on a mat to charge it. The mat? It's plugged into the wall with a cord.
2: Remote controls: Most people in this country still don't even have HDTV's. But yeah, we're going all motion control within a decade. Riiiight.
1: Flash drives. Probably the dumbest one on this list. There is ALWAYS a need to physically possess data, or to secure it, or to have access to it "out of band". Then the article caps it off with nonsense about cloud computing - something that is ebbing and flowing as companies realize that relying on 3rd parties to manage their data is not always a good thing, and that single points of failure cause major problems.
4: P-A-S digital cameras: They've been saying it for 10 years, and the P-A-S is still light years better than the camera in my phone, even though the phone has a higher megapixel resolution.
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There is no replacement for glass as the saying goes. There is more than a few things on that list where the replacement is not comparable but instead is simply more convenient.
Interesting. But I doubt much of it will play out as they project.
For example, I don't think land lines will go away. Decline in use, but not go away. The quality of cell phone (can you hear me now?)sound is so inferior that I expect land lines to be the preferred option whenever people are in a home or office. I never use a cell when I have a land line available. Maybe it's an age thing, but I don't like pressing a phone hard to my ear trying to get a better sound.
And desk tops will never die. Yes, laptops will continue to increase share. But again, if you have a choice, you would be really dumb to trade your 24" monitor and full size keyboard for a 10" screen and micro keyboard.
3: Power cords: Ahh yes, wireless charging. Because we can now power a 10 watt lightbulb through the airwaves, that means within 10 years we'll be able to power big screen TV's, washer/dryers, refrigerators, etc. Or not. Also left out with regards to the cordless charging mats is how you have to ensconce your device in a bulky accessory and then place it directly on a mat to charge it. The mat? It's plugged into the wall with a cord.
Worthless article. It only hit 3 or 4 out of 20.
I agree with your conclusion. The power cords thing is really stupid.
It's funny how so many technologies have been talked about for years but never really make it to maturity. And others make it but require a step backwards in quality.
We've been hearing about wireless speakers for a long time and they still are not widely used. Probably because you have to take a step backwards in quality. Same thing with going from CDs to MP3. Lower quality traded for convenience. Same with cell vs land lines. Lower quality traded for convenience. Same with smart phones vs cameras. Lower quality traded for convenience.
So if you don't mind a step back in quality, there are lots of technologies available with increased convenience.
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The technology hasn't necessarily been superseded but instead the consumer thinks it has. Only advantage flash has over tape is faster transfer rate to computer.
